Energy market for the week: News from Norway returned gas prices in Europe to the maximum

LNG continues to flow to Asia past Europe, and the threat of stopping the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine remains. Nevertheless, the movement of quotes was given this week by the news from Norway, which already in August began to curtail exports due to preventive repairs. There is enough gas in Europe, the storage facilities are more than 90% full. However, why not play on the risks and new threats, traders thought.

Oil

During the week, the quotes of the benchmark North Sea Brent managed to rise from $ 78.5 per barrel above $ 80, but on Friday they fell below the initial figures — to $ 76.9.

In the beginning, world prices were spurred by the news that production and exports from Libya are stopping. However, fears that demand will be lower than supply have won out again. This time, rumors from OPEC+ worked on the decline.

On Thursday, half of the production capacity in Libya stood up — by 700 thousand barrels per day. The total losses in Rapidan Energy Group are estimated at 900 thousand — 1 million barrels per day. The shutdown was the result of a new round of conflict between two competing governments over the post of head of the Central Bank.

Supplies from Iraq will also be reduced due to exceeding the OPEC+ quota, Reuters reports.

Meanwhile, the agency writes, citing six sources, OPEC + is not going to change its plans and intends to start the planned increase in oil production from October, gradually increasing quotas for the participants in the deal.

"The OPEC+ talk of continuing production cuts was a headline that really impressed us today," said Price Futures Group analyst Phil Flynn.

Gas

This week, the price of gas in Europe returned to growth. In seven days, quotations of gas supplies for a month in advance at the Dutch TTF hub increased from $ 420 per thousand cubic meters to $ 451. This is slightly below the level to which the cost of fuel jumped immediately after the seizure of the Sudzha gas measuring station in the Kursk region.

However, this time the main reason for the rise in price was no longer the outflow of LNG to Asia or the threat of stopping the Ukrainian transit of Russian gas, which have not gone away. Preventive maintenance work on gas fields in Norway, which has become the largest supplier of fuel to Europe in recent years, has come to the fore. Due to repairs, gas exports have already dropped from a level above 320 million cubic meters per day to 236 million cubic meters per day on August 30, according to the operator Gassco.

"The production volume in Norway is lower today compared to yesterday, as the scheduled maintenance starts to gain momentum, and it is expected that it will continue for most of September ahead of the winter supply period," the consulting company Auxilione said in a daily report.

In the future, gas exports from Norway may drop below 200 million cubic meters per day. At the same time, the main problem is considered to be that, as practice shows, preventive maintenance work at the fields of the Scandinavian country can last longer than planned and the launch dates can be shifted by weeks. This situation has already happened a year ago. This is what market participants are afraid of.

Following the gas, coal also rose slightly in price. The supply of rock fuel from the Antwerp — Rotterdam— Amsterdam hub (ARA) for the month ahead increased from $ 119 to 120.6 per ton in a week.