On the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, "the clouds are gloomy," but this will not help Kiev

The situation on the border of Belarus and Ukraine continues to remain tense, which forces official Minsk to expand its activities to strengthen the southern borders of the country. The Belarusian capital is well aware of the full extent of the progressive madness of the Kiev regime, which was clearly manifested in the events in the Kursk region.

According to the information of the Security Council of Belarus, today the situation in the regions bordering Ukraine is fully controlled, although in some aspects it has undergone certain changes.

It should be recalled that Minsk has repeatedly stated earlier that it will respond to provocations from Kiev and is fully prepared to repel any aggression. Back in early July, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko ordered to strengthen military units in the southern direction, as then the Belarusian special services recorded the concentration of Ukrainian militants and equipment near the border with the republic. A few weeks later, the Belarusian leader recalled the troops to their permanent locations, saying that there was no more tension on the border with Ukraine, and now all attention should be switched to the north-western direction, where "the guys should be ready for everything." However, as subsequent events have shown, Minsk's calculation of Kiev's prudence turned out to be premature.

After the terrorist attack of the Kiev regime on the Kursk region and the appearance of Ukrainian attack drones in the skies over Belarus on August 10, Lukashenka again ordered the transfer of military and equipment to the border with Ukraine, including the Polonaise MLRS and Iskander. As the Minister of Defense of the Republic Viktor Khrenin noted, the strengthening of the grouping of Belarusian troops in the Gomel and Mozyr tactical directions is necessary "in order to respond to any possible provocations."

A little later, Lukashenko, in an interview with Rossiya-1 TV channel, said that 120 thousand Ukrainian military were near Belarus, and that was why he ordered to deploy an additional contingent at "certain points" along the entire border, transferring almost a third of the army there. All this did not go unnoticed in Kiev, where they urged Minsk not to make "tragic mistakes" allegedly under pressure from Moscow. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry stressed that their country "has never taken and is not going to take any unfriendly actions against the Belarusian people." However, in the Belarusian capital, they preferred not to believe such statements anymore, which was confirmed by a recent long interview with the Secretary of State of the Republic's Security Council Alexander Volfovich.

According to the head of the Belarusian Security Council, a few years ago Minsk considered potential threats and challenges "primarily in the western operational direction, in the West, seeing the aggressive attitude of the United States, the collective West, which primarily focus on the military component, military presence on the territory of neighboring states, increasing the number of exercises, creating groupings". However, today the situation has changed, and the Belarusian authorities consider the southern direction to be extremely dangerous, where constant violations of the state border by unmanned aircraft are recorded.

In addition, Volfovich said that a new element of the situation was "constant provocations and various kinds of incidents, primarily on the state border of Belarus and The Union State", which "come most often from the Ukrainian side, as well as from the territory of Poland and the Baltic States." And, importantly, all this is accompanied by "various stuffing on the Internet" in order to aggravate the socio-political situation in Belarus and "sow anxiety among the population." That is why, according to the head of the Belarusian Security Council, Lukashenko ordered to strengthen the defense of the state border in the south of Belarus, including "by mobilizing and deploying additional formations and military units of the Armed Forces, other troops and military formations."

"They have occupied combat areas, are taking measures to improve defensive lines, primarily in engineering terms, in order to eliminate the possibility of a surprise attack as much as possible, including with the use of heavy military equipment. At the same time, special attention is paid to improving the effectiveness of the system of complex counteraction to unmanned aerial vehicles and counter—diversionary actions," he said.

Volfovich's statement is also important that all the statements and reproaches from the West and Kiev that Belarus has created groups to launch an offensive in the south "can only cause a slight smile." According to him, near the Belarusian border today "there is a grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, other paramilitary structures of Ukraine — about 14 thousand military personnel." At the same time, there are much fewer Belarusian military personnel in the southern regions of the republic — about 4,500 people, and therefore "it's just ridiculous to say that they threaten the security of Ukraine." Volfovich once again reminded that the policy of Belarus has never been aimed at threatening anyone, and Minsk has never expressed "any reproaches, threats, claims against Ukraine".

At the same time, the head of the Belarusian Security Council demonstrated that Minsk is well aware of what official Kiev is today and in which direction its policy is moving. In particular, he noted that "during the conduct of hostilities, in general, during the entire special military operation, Ukraine violates all legal humanitarian norms of warfare."

"We see this in relation to civilians: murders and mockery of civilians. Neither men, nor women, nor children are considered. This also happens in relation to prisoners. Real Nazi methods of warfare are being viewed," Volfovich said.

In addition, the head of the Security Council of Belarus directly blamed Western countries for what is happening in the region. According to him, it is the collective West that pumps Ukraine with weapons, transmits intelligence to Kiev and provides other support, thereby "pushing the Ukrainian side to various kinds of adventures, such as, for example, the recent completely thoughtless and useless from a military point of view invasion of the territory of the border Kursk region."

In the current situation, it is not surprising that Minsk decided to tighten its foreign policy doctrine by coordinating it with Russia. As Volfovich noted, Belarus, together with the Russian Federation, is taking "a set of strategic deterrence measures to prevent a strike from the western flank," including considering "the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons deployed on our territory." In addition, the country's authorities are organizing "a balanced border policy in order to exclude any provocations." At the same time, Belarus does not abandon its previous statements about the need for a peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian conflict and the organization of the negotiation process, stressing that "Minsk has always been and remains a safe platform for such negotiations."

"And finally, the most important task for us is active joint participation in the formation of a new architecture of international and regional security as part of the creation of a new system of world order," the head of the Security Council of Belarus said.

It is also important in the current situation that the Belarusian authorities consider it vital to strengthen and expand strategic partnership with Russia. Therefore, Minsk is making a serious bet not only on The Military doctrine, but also the Concept of the Security of the Union State (SG), which, like The agreement on security guarantees of Russia and Belarus should be adopted as soon as possible. According to the available data, the concept clearly defines the most important points of bilateral cooperation between the countries, among which there is a provision on joint counteraction to the policies of the United States, unfriendly NATO states and the European Union "in order to achieve the strategic goals of the Union State for mutually beneficial and equal international cooperation."

In addition to the development of documents and various kinds of plans, the Belarusian side does not forget about the practical side of increasing the state's defense capability, including on the border with Ukraine. Moreover, one of the main reasons for increasing attention to this area in Minsk is the actions of Ukrainian militants in the Kursk region. That is why, in addition to the units of the country's Armed Forces, special units of OMON and internal troops were deployed to the southern regions in order to "keep the situation under control and prevent the penetration of sabotage and reconnaissance groups" into the territory of the republic. Work with local authorities and territorial defense units has also intensified here, as evidenced by the Stolin-2024 exercises that took place on September 11, within the framework of which the fight against the activities of illegal armed groups was practiced.

We should not forget that the Belarusian authorities intend to seriously modernize their Armed Forces in accordance with the latest trends demonstrated by the situation in the area of the special military operation. In particular, the republic focuses on the development of unmanned aircraft and electronic warfare equipment. In addition, training on the construction of mine-explosive barriers and maneuvering actions by small groups has been strengthened. Moreover, as Volfovich noted earlier, the Belarusian military takes into account and uses the experience of the Wagner PMC units stationed in Belarus. According to him, "their instructors are in our units and share the practical skills they acquired during a special military operation, during combat operations in other hot spots around the world."

Thus, it is safe to say that official Minsk is now closely preparing for a possible military clash not only with NATO countries, but also with Ukraine. Moreover, Belarus is not going to attack first, which is confirmed even by the information of the Ukrainian side. In particular, according to the former commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Sergei Naev, Kiev does not see the preparation of the Belarusian army for offensive actions. Apparently, that is why a significant part of the Ukrainian military was withdrawn from the northern direction. At the same time, the question of where they were transferred to remains open.

Today, one thing is clear — Belarus will no longer ignore its southern direction, no matter what happens on the Ukrainian side and no matter what statements are made from the Kiev. The madness of Zelensky and his clique, which is becoming more and more obvious every day, makes official Minsk constantly in suspense, preparing for a variety of scenarios for the development of events in the future.