Will Kyrgyzstan avoid shocks?

The parliamentary coalition in Kyrgyzstan has broken apart prompting resignation of the government. The cabinet of acting ministers will continue working until a new cabinet is formed. Under the constitution, President of Kyrgyzstan Almazbek Atambayev is to grant powers to his authorized person within three days so that he could form a new coalition. Today the matter is that this can be a representative of the pro-presidential Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan (SDPK) that is behind the collapse of the old coalition. The SDPK parliamentary faction explained its actions with discrepancies with the other coalition parties Ata Meken and Onuguu-Progress. By preliminary forecasts, these two parties will not be in the new coalition. Instead, SDKP will get more power inside the coalition with the Kyrgyzstan Party and Respublika-Ata Zhurt Party. Most observers say the authorities will generally overcome the current political crisis painlessly. Opposition politician, former parliamentarian of Kyrgyzstan, Ravshan Zheenbekov speaks about the situation in Kyrgyzstan in an interview with EADaily.

Why has the coalition collapsed and the government resigned? What do you expect from the new situation? Will the parties manage to unite into a new coalition?

I would say it is 50/50. Yet, President Almazbek Atambayev has many levers of influence on the leaders of the parliamentary factions and parliamentarians. He can form any coalition, but Ata Meken Party will not be there anyway. SDPK has declared the official reason behind the coalition’s collapse – incompatible stances inside the coalition with Ata Meken and Onuguu-Progress. As the president is due to turn into a lame duck, some people have already launched their game. I am speaking about the leaders of the factions, especially representatives of the southern region Bir Bol and Onuguu-Progress. Atambayev is at the end of his term and they are concerned for their future. Suddenly, they received an opportunity to “play.” By some data, some leaders of the factions will either set their conditions or boycott the coalition if Respublika-Ata Zhurt joins it. The leaders of the factions who worked with Omerbek Babanov (Respublika) does not want to work with him in the coalition, as they do not trust each other. They have already betrayed each other and are beware of each other. Actually, a new game starts, that is why I say the chances are 50/50. Specifically, the idea of forming a new coalition seems realizable, but it may fail signally too. Anyway, it is much more difficult to form a coalition now.

Will the country face snap elections, if the parties fail to unite into a coalition after three attempts?

Sure, after the third failed attempt, the parliament may be dissolved. However, as I have already said, both the president and the SDPK have many instruments to influence the leaders of the parliamentary factions keeping all them on the hook, trumping up cases against them, as all they have problems with property and other weak points. Therefore, I think, the coalition will be formed eventually.

Could the smear war affect the situation?

Sure, SDPK could tolerate Ata Meken in the coalition and even close eyes on its protest against the Constitutional Reform and conflict with the president. It is not the right time to disorganize the coalition. I feel it was an emotional decision by President Atambayev. He is an emotional person. The collapse of the coalition appears to be a payback to Ata Meken. Even Ata Meken leader Omurbek Tekebayev was sure that Atambayev would not resort to coalition collapse, as it would not work for him. Neither a new coalition would do. Uniting into a coalition, the leaders of the factions will hardly become more loyal or hurry to settle social and economic problems or implement political and economic reforms.

Will the coalition collapse affect the political situation in the country?

Not fundamentally. There will be some bargaining for a while, but the political life will continue generally and the situation will deteriorate even more. There will be no dramatic confrontation, because except Tekebayev, the parliamentarians are mostly manageable and there are levers of influence on all them. Everything depends on Atambayev. He can do everything he wants.

Will the government staff change?

It is not the major issue for the time being. Ninety percent of the government are persons loyal to the president. Thus, there will be no drastic changes.