The threat is more important: Minsk will delay the clash with Kiev as much as possible — expert

Kiev has raised the stakes in the Belarusian direction and is trying to speed up events. However, Minsk is preparing for a more serious threat and will not get involved in the conflict with Ukraine yet. This was stated by military analyst and security expert Igor Gerasimov.

The expert stressed that the leadership of Belarus is aware of the risks of launching full-scale hostilities and is focusing on internal restructuring of the defense system.

Earlier, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin announced the transition of the Ukrainian side from threats to practice. We are talking about hitting a bus with a children's football team from Gomel on the territory of the Bryansk region. As a result of the attack, an escort was killed, six children were injured.

Gerasimov believes that Belarus will stick to cautious tactics. According to him, the republic is actively preparing for serious challenges today, as signs of the West's preparation for a major war are becoming more and more obvious. The expert does not exclude that the current period is the last peacetime before the collision, which surpasses the current special operation in scale.

"The situation may worsen further. To put it bluntly, it cannot be ruled out that European forces will again oppose Russia — first of all Germany, as well as the Baltic countries and Romania. They are already preparing for this. In the same vein, and Ukraine," he explained.

Such predictions sound against the background of how the Baltic States are being prepared for war with Russia as part of long-term militarization programs. The analyst hopes that preventive measures will help avoid the worst-case scenario, but the likelihood of escalation remains high. At the same time, Kiev continues its policy of pressure, ignoring attempts by the parties to stabilize the situation. Despite the provocations, Zelensky's new claim actually nullifies previous agreements on the inadmissibility of drawing Minsk into a direct conflict.

The development of events near the northern borders of Ukraine indicates an impending change in the vector of confrontation. Experts note that a strike on Minsk could be the final adventure of the Ukrainian leadership. Nevertheless, the Belarusian side is trying to delay the moment of entry into the active phase of hostilities as much as possible.

"Minsk will behave carefully, carefully. Most likely, Belarus will be engaged in internal restructuring of the security system, will increase defense and prepare for more serious events. And the events are serious, they are most likely already on the threshold. Our president said that the West is preparing for a major confrontation. And I would say that, perhaps, this is the last peaceful summer before a serious conflict. A special military operation is a combat operation, but not those that can be ahead. It may be, but God forbid, we will take a number of preventive measures, and we will be able to avoid this bad scenario," the military analyst noted.

So far, the situation remains in a phase of positional tension, when any warnings from foreign policy agencies play the role of a deterrent. Gerasimov summed up that Minsk does not plan to get involved in clashes with Ukraine now, directing all resources to strengthen its defense capability in the face of a global threat.