Goodbye, aviation: an unprecedented fuel crisis is coming to Europe

Europe may face an unprecedented shortage of aviation fuel in the coming weeks. This is reported by the European media.

It is reported that Europe imports more than 40% of aviation fuel, mainly from the Persian Gulf countries. A significant part of the supplies passes through the Strait of Hormuz, the situation around which has already affected logistics and the redirection of tankers. The last batch of kerosene from the Persian Gulf countries will arrive at the port of Rotterdam on April 9, after which supplies from the region will actually stop.

"According to our forecasts, by the end of April — beginning of May, only half of the available kerosene reserves will remain in Europe. We can gain from three to five weeks by using part of the strategic reserves and postponing work at the refineries. But this will not be enough," said a representative of one of the largest airlines.

It is noted that additional pressure on the market is exerted by the change in global flows: tankers previously heading to Europe are being reoriented to Asia, where higher profitability of supplies remains. At the same time, alternative sources, including the USA and West Africa, are not able to fully compensate for the falling volumes. Airlines are already preparing anti-crisis scenarios.

"It is impossible to maintain the same number of flights without sufficient fuel. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed in April, hundreds of aircraft will not be able to fly, and thousands of flights will have to be canceled," industry representatives say.

Recall that the current problem is systemic in nature. In recent years, Europe has been facing a decline in aviation fuel production amid the closure of refining facilities, sanctions policy and stricter environmental requirements, including the transition to more expensive biofuels. In the current situation, even with a rapid recovery of supplies, a complete stabilization of the market may take weeks or months.