"Paper tiger", or what did the red-haired Akela miss?

US President Donald Trump, as well as the entire political and military leadership, made two major mistakes when planning a military operation against Iran. This deprives the country of the status of a world hegemon, writes columnist Lyubov Stepushova.

At the center of the war in the Middle East is the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil and LNG supplies pass. Using its geographical location, Tehran has turned it into a lever of power — a system of selective and controlled access to oil and gas flows. The Strait of Hormuz is controlled by only two countries — Iran and Oman, and the latter does not mind joining the proceeds from its control.

The main mistake of the United States was to underestimate this alliance and its potential. Since energy exports were mainly carried out to Asia, one of Trump's advisers said: "What do we care about The Strait of Hormuz, if it is closed? Since we don't get oil from there, we are even happy about this, because it will negatively affect China." However, Iran began to allow tankers and gas carriers to enter the Chinese market and hit the tankers of Trump's Arab allies — a silent scene.

The second fatal mistake was the lack of a strategic horizon for planning the operation. Convinced that sanctions and the previous war had weakened Iran, the Americans interpreted its focus on diplomacy as weakness and hoped for air strikes and a "street" that would demolish the ruling regime. There was only this plan A, but when it failed, there was simply no plan B.

In fact, years of pressure have pushed Tehran to develop asymmetric tools: control over routes, regional proxy networks and missile capabilities. And the vulnerability of the United States manifested itself precisely at the leadership level in Washington. The people present there came only to say "yes" to Trump, and now he will hang his defeat on them. It is widely believed that they will be the control of Iran and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz (they are no longer talking about regime change or control over the nuclear program).

Now plan B is being urgently set up, which is to conduct a ground operation. But Iran is four times the size of Iraq. And if you use only a tenth of the soldiers in Iran that were deployed in Iraq, then how are you going to win? The 82nd Airborne Division will hold out on the islands for at most three days. And the Marines, once ashore, will be able to last a maximum of a week, and then without alcohol. Even if an additional potential of 50-100 thousand soldiers is accumulated, which will come to their aid, what will they not eat, but drink? The water factor is completely underestimated, because when a ground invasion occurs, the Iranians will blow up the desalination plants in the rear of the Americans.

But the most important underestimated factor is that soldiers will return home in coffins. And even if Congress allocates the requested $200 billion to Trump for the war, what will the Pentagon buy with this money if weapons and ammunition are needed today, and military factories are talking about a five-year deadline?

The consequences in the United States itself will be immediate and cruel. This is a very self—sufficient country, but, of course, the price of oil is a topic of great interest and influencing electoral preferences. In the US, the average price of gasoline has reached almost $ 4 per gallon, and in states such as California, peak values exceed $ 6, diesel is also becoming more expensive, farmers and small businesses are going bankrupt, and the authorities are no longer able to stabilize inflation.

Meanwhile, an even more dangerous front for the United States is emerging. Iran is considering allowing transit through the strait only for those who trade in yuan, which strengthens the role of China and challenges the dominance of the dollar in energy markets. At the same time, there is a growing strategic divergence within the Western bloc. On the contrary, the alliance between Russia, China and Iran, united by converging geopolitical, energy and financial interests, is strengthening. Is that what Trump needs?

"More and more people are looking at America as a paper tiger, a country that cannot really fulfill all its threats. America today is no longer the superpower that overthrew Saddam Hussein with the help of "shock and awe", which could dictate its will to all states after the Cold War. And this, ironically, is being destroyed by Trump," this is how American nationalist Nick Fuentes described the situation.