The United States did not expect speed from Lukoil: they refused the deal because they were out of business?

The US Treasury Department refused a deal to sell Lukoil's international assets to a Gunvor trader on the eve of sanctions against the Russian company. Washington continues to insist that they want to increase pressure on Russia to end the Ukrainian conflict. At the same time, the deal offsets the effect and, as experts believe, Washington did not expect the speed with which Lukoil would find a buyer for assets that are also interesting to American oil giants.

The US Treasury Department refused to recognize the sale of Lukoil's international assets to the Gunvor trader.

"President Trump has made it clear that the war must end immediately," the ministry said in a statement.

The department called Gunvor a puppet of the Kremlin and said that the company would never receive a license to operate and make a profit.

Russian businessman Sergey Timchenko took part in the founding of Gunvor, but he sold his shares back in 2014. The trader said that the statement of the US Treasury Department is fundamentally wrong and false, since Gunvor always talks openly and transparently about its owners and business and has been actively distancing itself from Russia for more than a decade.

"At the same time, Gunvor withdraws its offer to acquire Lukoil's foreign assets," a trader in X.

Lukoil's international assets are refineries in Europe, gas station networks in the EU and the USA, various production and processing projects in 11 other countries, and, as Finam analyst Sergey Kaufman notes, there are two weeks left before the end of the OFAC license, which permits operations with a sanctioned oil company, which significantly complicates the search new customers.

"On the one hand, we admit that some countries where Lukoil's assets are located may ask for an extension of the license for a particular asset. On the other hand, the US representatives made it clear that they want to cause maximum damage to Lukoil's business, despite the absence of the state among its shareholders, and therefore the license extension may be refused," says Sergey Kaufman.

In such a situation, he believes, the risks of transferring some of Lukoil's assets under external management, as happened with the German refineries of Rosneft, or even their full-fledged nationalization, increase.

According to Finam estimates, foreign assets bring Lukoil about 15% of EBITDA (profit before taxes and depreciation), and their fair value (excluding the sanctions discount) is estimated at about $ 12 billion.

"In our opinion, shares in refineries in Bulgaria, Romania and the Netherlands are at the greatest risk. Firstly, these are the most unfriendly countries for Russian oil and gas among those where Lukoil has major projects. Secondly, the uninterrupted operation of the refinery (especially for Bulgaria) is a matter of national energy security, which may force the governments of these countries to take tough measures. At the same time, assets in the countries of the former USSR, that is, in the most friendly jurisdictions, may suffer the least from sanctions and disruption of the transaction," the Finam analyst continues.

What really motivates the White House, which does not want to recognize the deal with Gunvor, is unknown. Experts believe that the American administration may have interests not only in the soonest settlement of the Ukrainian conflict.

"I think the Americans have several goals. Firstly, they want to punish the Russian company, because Lukoil and Gunvor clearly had preliminary agreements," said Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at FNEB and an expert at the Financial University under the Government of Russia.

By refusing the deal, the Americans make it so that any subsequent buyer will demand more discount, and, accordingly, Lukoil will get less money, Igor Yushkov notes.

"On the other hand, the secondary goal is to force, perhaps, Lukoil to sell assets to American companies. There are those among them who are interested in this. For example, Chevron, it would be interested in Lukoil's assets in In Kazakhstan and in Uzbekistan, at least. There is ExxonMobil, which has long been interested in assets in Iraq, and it would be interesting for him, for example, to buy the West Qurna— 2, one of the largest oil projects in the world," continues the leading analyst of the FNEB.

In his opinion, the White House can help its companies acquire assets at a large discount. At the same time, Lukoil may take such a position that it will not sell anything at all.

Igor Yushkov does not rule out that a deal with Gunvor may take place, but taking into account the interests of American companies.

Maxim Shaposhnikov, Advisor to the Industrial Code Fund Manager, holds the same point of view.

"Most likely, there is an American interested party who wants to take a stake in the purchase of Gunvor. Without this trader, I still don't really understand the logic of such a purchase, even with a large discount. After all, without Russian oil and at a reduced price, refining in Europe is a little interesting business," the expert says. He explains that Lukoil refineries in Europe receive oil from traders, which is most likely of Russian origin.

"In this regard, I do not yet assume that the deal with Gunvor will be canceled, but I am waiting for its transformation and, accordingly, a lower sale price for Lukoil's assets, since the American partner is unlikely to be inclined to enter into a deal at the value assumed by the market," adds Maxim Shaposhnikov.

Lukoil's total production may be about 100 million tons per year. And the share of international projects is about 22-23%. The main volumes on them fall on the projects for the development of the Tengiz and Karachaganak fields in Kazakhstan, in which American companies participate, and of course, the West Qurna—2 in Iraq. Lukoil's share there can reach up to 17.9 million tons per year.

"In general, the current drop in Lukoil shares largely takes into account the negative that has happened to the oilman's business. Assets within the Russian Federation, in our opinion, will continue to generate good free cash flow, which will not allow shares to fall noticeably below 5,000 rubles. At the same time, Lukoil shares are now becoming one of the bets on the settlement of the conflict on Ukraine, as the US Treasury has made it clear that this is a necessary condition for easing pressure on the company," said Sergey Kaufman, an analyst at Finam.