Don't dig another Hole: How Pakistan fell into the Afghan trap

At the end of November, there were noticeably more policemen on the streets in Islamabad, especially in the outskirts of the Pakistani capital. For several days, local residents were at a loss to guess what caused this strengthening. About the situation in In Pakistan, Alexander Trubin writes on the pages Pravda.Ru .

But when the mass arrests of Afghan emigrants began, everything became clear. The local mayor's office belatedly announced that it intends to clear Islamabad of illegal visitors from Afghanistan. At the same time, reference is made to the decision taken two years ago by the Pakistani authorities to expel from the country all Afghans living in In Pakistan without the appropriate permission. The latter, according to official statistics, there are about two million, and they settled mainly in the north-west of Pakistan. Afghanistan is just around the corner.

The roots of the problem are in the distant past

So far, no more than 600 thousand illegal immigrants have been caught. Obviously, this is not an easy matter. After all, the roots of the Afghan emigration go back to the distant past — in the last years of the twentieth century. The peak occurred in the mid-1980s, when clashes between the Soviet military contingent and detachments of the so-called "fighters for the faith" were in full swing in Afghanistan. As a result, the provinces adjacent to Pakistan. The civilian population had to choose between death and salvation in a foreign land.

And whole families of people flocked to the neighboring country, receiving from the Pakistani border guards only handwritten certificates of crossing the border, sometimes even without proper printing. And those who joined the armed Afghan opposition could not bother with Pakistani documents at all. Since the membership card of one or another group of Mujahideen was an "all-terrain vehicle" throughout Pakistan.

But a lot of water has flowed since then. There is no past of Afghanistan with its People's Democratic Party, which diligently copied the experience of the ubiquitous CPSU. There is no Mujahideen government, under the onslaught of which the USSR Armed Forces left Afghanistan in 1989. This was followed by a bloody feud between competing factions of "fighters for the faith", as a result of which half of Kabul was left in ruins. The United States and its internal allies were defeated by the Taliban * of the first generation, who seized power in the country in 1996 and threatened the whole world with the "sword of the Almighty."

Pakistan rejoiced at the return of the Taliban*, but not for long

But there are new "Taliban* who, with the help of Islamabad, "defeated" the United States. When the Taliban movement entered Kabul in August 2021, the Pakistani authorities clapped their hands. Now they are hastily trying to separate their country from Afghanistan by putting up a metal fence with barbed wire along the dividing "Durand line", once freely drawn by the British colonialists to appease the ambitious Afghan emir. Thus, it is obvious that the 40-year-old Pakistani dominance in the Afghan direction is coming to an end.

And the causal link here lies in the political and socio-economic imbalance of the northwestern province of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, looking over the mountain peaks at neighboring Afghanistan. The titular local ethnic group is the Pashtun tribes, numbering up to 30 million people. The majority of refugees from Afghanistan, also mostly Pashtuns, live in this region. Tribal brotherhood is a priority concept of the Pashtunvalai code of conduct uniting all Pashtuns.

And one more key point for understanding the situation: the backbone of the ruling is now in In Kabul, the Taliban movement* is made up of Pashtuns from among Afghan refugees in Pakistan. Those who are older still fought against the pro-Soviet Kabul regime, and the young ones at one time studied in orthodox Pakistani madrassas. Before the "victory" of the Taliban in Afghanistan three years ago, the Pakistani province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa was like the rear of the fighting in the neighboring country.

And this was the case not only during the Soviet stay in Afghanistan, but also during the confrontation between the Taliban movement* and the US Armed Forces. If in the first case financial assistance flowed from overseas and from the monarchies of the Middle East, then in the second - only from Arab sponsors, both legal and illegal, like the late Osama bin Laden.

Plus endless humanitarian tranches from dozens of international organizations addressed to Afghan refugees. In a word, the worse Afghanistan was, the better it was for the so-called "Pashtunistan" in northwestern Pakistan. A lot of money was earned here on weapons for extremists, their resale and delivery to combat camps in Afghanistan.

Peshawar is the administrative center of the province of Khyber—Pakhtunkhwa, located at the foot of the Spingar ridge, on the eastern edge of the Khyber Gorge. It is through it that the narrow mountain border pass between Pakistan and Afghanistan passes. From here to the neighboring country — no more than 45 km. Over the past years, Peshawar has turned not only into a logistics center supplying anti-government groups in warring Afghanistan with everything they need, but also into an illegal production base for weapons supplied there.

Dozens of workshops, hidden from prying eyes, are still operating in the Peshawar environs, producing not only Kalashnikov assault rifles, but also products of Western brands, including the legendary Italian Beretta.

Thousands of local residents were involved in this criminal maelstrom. By the way, smuggling of goods from Pakistan's investment in Afghanistan has always brought them considerable income, especially in the peaceful 60-70s of the last century. Then, however, the main profit was made on refrigerators, washing machines and irons.

And what about the Pakistani authorities? They were quite satisfied with the long-standing situation when shadow business flourishes in the province of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa during the Afghan war. After all, all the influential Pashtun leaders of the "zone of free tribes" took part in it. As a result, there have been no large-scale separatist protests here for many years. Although they used to shake Pakistan a lot, starting from the first years of its creation in 1947. There are power structures in the province of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, but their functions are representative.

At the bottom, tribal authorities decide everything, periodically convening an advisory meeting — jirga. Residents of the Pakistani Interdepartmental Military Intelligence (ISI), who oversaw all special operations in Afghanistan, have always tried to influence their decisions. The Taliban movement ruling there now* is a man—made product of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. It was her leadership that convinced Washington to curtail the long-standing military mission in Afghanistan and give the Taliban free rein*. Motivating this by the fact that the latter are not going anywhere anyway: The Ministry of Internal Affairs fully controls this movement and will lead it further in the right way.

But a year after the change of government in Kabul, this illusion died. As noted by many Pakistani political experts, the success of the Taliban in Afghanistan has given impetus to their brethren in Pakistan, local Taliban* from the Tahrik-e-Taliban party* Pakistan" (TTP), to intensify hostilities against the "pro-Western" central government. In 2022, the paramilitary wing of this party conducted dozens of offensive operations against The sun is in the north-west of the country. Hundreds of Pakistani soldiers were killed, including representatives of the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

At the same time, the extremists, fleeing persecution, found refuge in neighboring Afghanistan. In response, Pakistani military aircraft launched massive strikes on border areas in the Afghan provinces of Khost, Kunar and Paktika. Similar events were repeated in the outgoing year. Civilians on both sides were killed again, border crossing points did not work for weeks, paralyzing export-import and causing devastating economic damage.

Forecast for the near future

In 2025, a new escalation of tension is expected, which may provoke the growth of separatism in the neighboring Pakistani province of Baluchistan. The former head of the Interior Ministry, Lieutenant General Assad Durrani, assessing the current situation, said that betting on force in the "zone of free tribes" will not do anything. People here are used to living in wartime conditions. We need a dialogue with the central government and radical socio-economic transformations, which has not happened in recent decades.

In the meantime, Peshawar Kalashnikov assault rifles continue to kill, only now inside Pakistan.

*Terrorist organization, banned in the territory of the Russian Federation