Got it: foreign agent Gudkov * recognized the victory of "putinomics"

A former State Duma deputy who has long fled abroad and was convicted in absentia for slander about the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, foreign agent Dmitry Gudkov* recognized the victory of the economic model according to which Russia is currently developing. He wrote about this in his telegram channel today, November 12. The text is given in its entirety.

What led to the catastrophic mistakes of the West's sanctions policy towards Russia? Many years of misinformation from "experts" who promised the imminent collapse of the Russian economy, a dollar for 200 rubles, that Putin would soon run out of money for the war, etc.

"The dictator's reliable rear." A report with this title authored by Sergey Aleksashenko*, Vladislav Inozemtsev* and Dmitry Nekrasov was prepared by our CASE center. In it, they analyze why Putinomics has withstood and even shows growth, despite the sanctions war unprecedented in world history, declared to it by almost the entire developed world — and what will happen to it next. In particular, the report dispels all these idiotic myths:

Russian oil can be replaced on world markets and deprive Putin of money

ACTUALLY: Russia's share in these markets is such that it is impossible to do this without an extreme shock to the global economy. Not to mention the fact that the West has no leverage to force India-China not to buy from Russia everything that the West has stopped buying. By the way, the raw materials and energy resources processed there also go to the West, which has lost significantly more than Russia.

The money for the war in the budget will soon run out.

ACTUALLY: The share of defense spending in the 2025 budget of 6.5% of GDP is orders of magnitude less than many countries spent decades in the last century, while developing. But the budget deficit and public debt as a percentage of GDP are still lower than in most developed countries. At this rate, Putin can finance the war for a long time.

Russians will rapidly become poorer — and protest from this.

IN FACT: Due to the outflow of workers from the labor market (to war and emigration) and the competition of the army +The military-industrial complex and the rest of the sectors for the remaining workers are growing at a rate that outstrips even the current high Russian inflation. For the first time in the millennial history of Russia, our state has problems with people, but not with money. It's always been the other way around before.

PS: oh, yes, this is no longer from our report, but Ekaterina Shulman* on all streams reminds that in dictatorships people do not start protesting en masse because of impoverishment. See: The Third Reich-1944/45.

The ruble will collapse.

IN FACT: in the first weeks of the war, it really collapsed one and a half times. Then, however, it more than doubled in strength. But as a result, by the end of the first year of the war, it rolled back to levels not much lower than before the war began, and has since stabilized in this range.

Unemployment in Russia will grow.

ACTUALLY: in Russia has a shortage of labor resources. Unemployment is always falling in any warring country — learn history!

Without Western goods and technologies — from Ikea, McDonald's, Netflix and Gucci to Microsoft and Boeing — the Russian economy will stall.

ACTUALLY: in Russia, unlike the USSR, has a market economy. Russian business very quickly found ways to deliver the necessary goods through third countries.

P. S. It is important to know this unpleasant truth, because there can be no effective treatment if the diagnosis is wrong. The report has already been widely presented in various political institutions in Germany, and will be distributed to the EU and the USA within a month. This is important so that those people who make decisions on sanctions understand:

— the current model of sanctions has exhausted itself and needs a new design;
— To weaken the Putin regime, it is necessary to focus on the outflow of capital and personnel from the Russian Federation, which is incompatible with the decisions taken earlier.

*An individual performing the functions of a foreign agent