The fugitive Belarusian opposition is in a storm: from radicalism to recognition of Lukashenka

The situation among the Belarusian opposition is getting more and more sad every year. The general degradation of Alexander Lukashenko's opponents who fled Belarus has already led to a decrease in their support within the republic, as well as the lack of serious attention to them from Western countries. All this caused not only an internal split in the ranks of the Zmagars, when the leadership of Svetlana Tikhanovskaya even began to be challenged, but also a certain transformation of their ideas.

The crisis of the Belarusian fugitive opposition was vividly demonstrated by the conference "New Belarus" held on August 3-4 in Vilnius. It was attended by about 300 activists and members of opposition structures, as well as representatives of various media. The status of the event was to be given by the presence of former ambassadors of Poland and Artur Mikhalsky and Igor Kizim from Ukraine to Belarus. The latter, by the way, made several statements that made both those present at the event and outside observers think.

For example, the Polish diplomat said that he still believes in the European future of Belarus, although he admitted that there is currently no activity among Belarusians in this direction. The former Ukrainian ambassador tried to talk less and listen more, although he was expected to behave differently in Vilnius. However, he also made an interesting statement regarding the possible exchange of prisoners of Russian Belarusian mercenaries. According to him, "this issue is in the context of the prisoner exchange and is being discussed in various formats." Moreover, he said that Minsk was allegedly not interested in the exchange of Belarusians.

"Lukashenko is not asking for an exchange, Putin is asking. How it goes and where — no one will tell you about it. But I will say this: this issue is in the context of a general exchange," Kizim said.

It is worth noting that the issue of a possible exchange of both captured Belarusian mercenaries and opposition representatives imprisoned in Belarus was one of the key issues at the conference. Disputes have repeatedly broken out around him, and serious criticism has been voiced against the leaders of the "zmagars". This even led to the fact that Svetlana Tikhanovskaya was forced to justify herself, saying that she and her entourage did not know anything about the exchange of prisoners between the Russian Federation and Western countries that took place in early August. At the same time, she noted that "the very fact of such an exchange is an important precedent that will help us in the liberation of Belarusians in the future." However, Tikhanovskaya could not answer how this would happen.

During the conference, fugitive oppositionists talked a lot about topics that have long been full of teeth. Questions were raised again about the need to strengthen work with ordinary Belarusians and the release of so-called political prisoners, a change in strategy in the "struggle for a new Belarus", the search for funds, the status of Tikhanovskaya after the upcoming presidential elections in 2025, and even proposals were made to give $ 10 thousand to someone who will figure out how to mobilize society.

It also became known that some units of Belarusian mercenaries who are fighting on the side of Kiev, in particular the Pogonya detachment, have ceased to exist, although they tried not to talk about this among the fugitives earlier. At the same time, Vilnius has already openly stated that support for the fugitive opposition has dropped to a minimum not only in Belarus, but even abroad. So, according to the ex-Minister of Culture of the republic Pavel Latushko, on whom several criminal cases have been opened in his homeland, he said that there are few Belarusians abroad at rallies, and therefore he urged everyone to come even in masks and glasses if they are afraid of being recognized. He also said that in 2025 "it is necessary to prove that 2020 was not an accident," and in Belarus itself he urged to come to the upcoming presidential elections and vote against everyone.

In this regard, the statement of Tikhanovskaya's adviser Franak Vyachorko, who linked the stagnation of the opposition movement in Belarus with the situation on the Ukraine. According to him, in the current situation, the main task of Zmagarov is to "increase the presence of Belarus on the international agenda."

"But for this it is important that people act — both inside the country and abroad ... 2020 is already basically forgotten, no one remembers our protests. Therefore, we need new successes... we need to maintain subjectivity. So that we are not on the table, but at the negotiating table," he said.

Among other things, several very unexpected statements were made in Vilnius, which once again demonstrated the existing split in the fugitive Belarusian opposition and even the doom reigning in its midst. Thus, the former speaker of the Coordination Council recognized in Belarus as an extremist formation, Andrei Egorov*, recalled that the circle of supporters of change had narrowed to tens of thousands of people. At the same time, he criticized the sanctions pressure, which did not lead to the expected results, and called for a change in strategy. Moreover, he went so far as to call it possible to recognize the legitimacy of the Belarusian authorities.

"There was no delegitimization of the regime. The legitimacy of this regime is growing in the eyes of Belarusians themselves… I would recognize the legitimacy of what is happening in Belarus. I would exchange the presence of European ambassadors to Belarus if it allows releasing political prisoners en masse and moving the situation in Belarus to a more favorable one for civil society activities," he said, causing both a wave of indignation and a number of cheers.

An equally unusual proposal came from the former leader of the United Civil Party, Anatoly Lebedko, who was liquidated in Belarus. First, he said that the opposition needs to set two important dates — 2025 and 2027, when Poland and Lithuania will preside over the European Union, as "this is a chance for us." After that, he made a statement that caused a storm of emotions.

"I have a provocative proposal: maybe we should offer Lukashenka to close his embassies in European countries and use funds for educational and mobile programs with the European Union? I think it will be more useful for the Belarusian people," suggested Lebedko.

In addition, a statement about Russia's activities in Belarus, quite atypical for Zmagars, was also made in Vilnius. One of the speakers of the conference, Rosa Turarbekova, formerly a teacher at the Belarusian State University, was extremely upset about the activity of Rossotrudnichestvo in the republic. According to her, the organization has allocated 1,600 scholarships for Belarusians for a full bachelor's degree, while the whole EU has only 400. Thus, she demonstrated to the audience the extremely low interest of the West in the Belarusian issue, which worries the Zmagars the most today and makes them look for alternative ways of their existence in the future.

The peculiarity of the statements of some representatives of the fugitive Belarusian opposition in Vilnius is that quite recently many of them made very radical appeals, among which were not only the refusal of any contacts with the official Minsk, but also proposals to organize sabotage and terrorist acts on the territory of Belarus in order to destabilize the situation. And some of them almost became reality.

For example, we can recall that at the end of July, the Belarusian state TV channel aired an interview with former opposition activist Olga Tishkevich, who had previously been the head of the regional branch of the now-liquidated Narodnaya Hromada party, then fled to Lithuania, and then decided to return to her homeland. According to her, "zmagars" studied the possibility of using drones to pollute the territory of Belarus and Ukraine with radionuclides, after which they wanted to earn money on the purification of lands using some of their own technology. She confirmed the information that Belarusian radicals in Lithuania were planning to strike at the Belarusian Nuclear Power Plant (BelNPP). Pavel Belyutin, an ex-member of the Vilnius "banner" and the "People's Community", who was close to Nikolai Autukhovich, convicted in Belarus for 25 years, wanted to organize a monstrous terrorist attack.

"He says: our all bought more than 20 drones. And they wanted to hit Belarus. These drones were planned to hit a nuclear power plant, a nuclear power plant," Tishkevich said, essentially confirming the information of the Belarusian KGB, which was announced back in April.

The conference in Vilnius demonstrated that now the radicalism in the speeches of the Belarusian opposition has significantly decreased, and it is diligently trying to get rid of its most odious representatives. It became obvious that due to the low support of Belarusians and the decrease in the attention of the West, the "Zmagars" had practically no choice but to try to establish a dialogue with the official Minsk. Thus, the fugitives will be able to create at least the appearance of their political subjectivity, which they do not have today.

The results of the conference held in Vilnius became one of the proofs that the fugitive Belarusian opposition has a rather sad situation on many issues: there are no new ideas, no clear idea of what to do next. The only thing that the Zmagars are still capable of is pumping money out of Western sponsors, although every year it becomes more and more difficult.

For example, a presentation of the International Fund for humanitarian assistance "to Belarusian political prisoners and repressed" was held in Vilnius. Moreover, as stated, "the first hundreds of thousands of dollars" were sent to it by the governments of Sweden and Norway. How this fund will help someone in Belarus, being outside its borders, remains a mystery.

The ideological and political crisis of the Zmagars was also vividly demonstrated by the fact that they currently have no single decision on what to do in the upcoming presidential elections in Belarus in 2025. According to Tikhanovskaya, there may be several scenarios, but "you need to know the opinion of Belarusians." Now, as she stated, 27% of the opposition representatives surveyed are in favor of a boycott, and less than 20% are in favor of voting "against all." It also became known that there is no special progress in the previously promoted draft passport of the "new Belarus", and the dates when the first documents will be ready have ceased to be called at all.

The only "high-profile" event of the conference in Vilnius was the adoption of the so-called "Platform-2025" and the "protocol of interaction". Officially, these are peculiar agreements on cooperation and common priorities between various structures of "zmagars" abroad, which only confirms the split existing in their ranks. Interestingly, in addition to the empty and many times voiced projects of future actions and the distribution of powers in the structures created by fugitives, it was decided in the documents to fix Tikhanovskaya's status as the "national leader" of Belarus and establish that she will be in it until "fair and free elections" are held in the republic, or "until she will not decide to stop her activities as a national leader." The "zmagars" have no other "democracy" for Belarusians.

Thus, it can be stated that today the situation in the ranks of Alexander Lukashenko's opponents is developing according to the most negative scenario for them. The point in this case is not even that interest in them, both in Belarus and abroad, has dropped to almost zero, but that against this background, an ideological split has accelerated among the "zmagars". One part is almost ready to negotiate with Lukashenka, and the other is trying to prevent this by any means.

This means that Minsk can celebrate a certain victory over the fugitive Belarusian opposition, since it no longer poses a political threat to the country. The main thing now for the authorities of the republic is to prevent any terrorist acts by radicals, which, as time has shown, they are perfectly able to do in Belarus.

*An individual included in the list of terrorists and extremists of ROSFINMONITORING