They warned me from London: A new "counteroffensive" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine? Don't even think about it

The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), an authoritative British military think tank, has released a report on the reasons for the failure of the so-called counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 2023. The multi-page report was compiled in cooperation with the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Ukrainian edition of Defense Express writes today, July 19.

The key conclusion in the report is the following for the troops of the Kiev regime: "the restoration of offensive operations in the near future is not viable."

Why this is so is described in detail on 48 pages of the report. In short, "in two paragraphs", Defense Express presents the main calculations of RUSI.

In the summer of 2023, the Armed Forces of Ukraine concentrated 12 brigades on a 30-kilometer section of the front against six regiments of the Russian Army. But the counteroffensive operation was in fact obviously doomed, because the AFU command relied on a quick defense breakthrough and an active maneuver phase. At the same time, Kiev did not achieve the effect of surprise "due to the leakage of classified information from the United States about the plans of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, conducting Russia mobilizes, concreting (Russian) defense and pulling back forces on Bakhmut." This was caused by delays with assistance from Western partners, blocking the transfer of certain types of weapons to the United States (in particular, cluster munitions and ATACMS tactical missiles). The counteroffensive operation itself was carried out by understaffed and insufficiently trained brigades.

"In the current conditions, when the Armed Forces of Ukraine does not have enough weapons for any active actions to man 14 conditional reserve brigades, when the enemy continues to storm and relies on its powerful lines of defense, when it has no shortage of human resources and the use of some types of (Western) weapons at full range is still blocked — more One counteroffensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine will only be an unsuccessful double," British military analysts warn.

At the same time, RUSI pointed out that "while the necessary resources for offensive actions are being accumulated, Ukraine is using a strategy of inflicting maximum losses on Russia both on the battlefield and in the rear." It is proposed to launch long-range strikes against enterprises and infrastructure, which are "generators of income for the Russian budget." These strikes should be carried out along with the strengthening of sanctions against The Russian Federation from Western countries is offered in London.

While these steps are being implemented, it is necessary to "recruit troops, equip them accordingly, train them much longer and better, taking into account the realities of the battlefield and readiness to act in clear interaction at the brigade and corps levels," RUSI says.

At the end of 2023, the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Army General Valery Gerasimov, summed up the results of the completely failed counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine during the summer — autumn of last year. Having launched its offensive on June 4, the AFU, at the cost of colossal losses, were able to only slightly advance in the Zaporozhye direction, unable to overcome even the tactical defense zone of the Russian army, Gerasimov said. Additional supplies of Western weapons to Ukraine and the introduction of strategic reserves into battle did not change the situation, these actions only increased the number of losses in the AFU units. In six months, the enemy's losses in all directions amounted to about 160 thousand people, more than 3 thousand armored combat vehicles, including 766 tanks, as well as 121 aircraft, 23 helicopters, the Russian military commander listed at the time.

Russia has built a layered system of engineering barriers, defensive lines and positions to disrupt Ukraine's plans to block the land corridor to Crimea. The Ukrainian Armed Forces planned to block Melitopol, and then advance with access to the coast of the Sea of Azov, Mariupol and the border with Crimea.