The Minsk Agreements on Ukraine crisis contain fundamental contradictions that cannot be removed through diplomatic efforts. Military actions remain the only way to achieve a stable status quo, Karlis Dauksts, a political analyst, said in an interview with Latvian Radio-4.
Speaking at Open Issue radio program,the analyst said the Minsk Agreements have become an important stage on the way towards normalization of the situation in Ukraine, but some key provisions of the Agreement, as he thinks, are not implementable. “For instance, how to settle the Constitutional issue? The Minsk Agreement requires that the Constitution of Ukraine is amended. This process was suspended for too many contradictions. Recognition of the autonomy of Donbass and all those DPR and LPR (Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics), will undermine the constitution and unity of Ukraine. No president, no government can do it. The second contradiction is that there is no control over sovereignty of that country. Actually, Ukraine cannot control the border between Russia, Donbass and Lugansk, though it is envisaged by the Minsk Agreements! The forces in Lugansk and Donetsk will never agree on it. ” Dauksts said.
He believes that such contradictions cannot be removed peacefully. “Unfortunately, I am skeptical about it. I think this can be settled only on the battlefield. Of course, withdrawal of troops could help, but who will be controlling over the border then? Both sides blame each other for not letting the OSCE observers to the border. Therefore, I think, the only solution, except the military one, is deployment of peacekeepers under the aegis of the UN with participation of third, neutral countries,” the expert said. He sees only two really implementable provisions in the Minsk Agreement. “These are the ceasefire and exchange of captives. That’s all. The other provisions – constitution, control over the border – are too complicate and contradictory for Kiev to settle,” he said.
Dauksts is sure that the world community that is reacting to the Ukraine crisis more and more inertly has already put up with Crimea’s unification with the Russian Federation and do not anticipate that Kiev will take it back in the foreseeable future. In his words, the governments in Europe are tired of the events in Ukraine, which can felt now. “Anti-corruption measures are very weak, Ukraine is still divided between oligarchic clans that control over entire regions. Ukraine is being federalized basing on the oligarchic clans… There are very complicated domestic processes. Europe sees no significant development in the domestic policy in Ukraine. That is why European politicians made some skeptical statements about too sluggish efforts of Ukraine to make reforms. The demands to return Crimea are so far unreal. The issue has been shelved. There is a general opinion in Europe that the Crimea issue cannot be settled now,” Dauksts said.