RS: Putin's patience has run out — our military needs to get out of Kiev

Warning of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to Western countries about the evacuation of diplomats and citizens from Kiev before Russia begins "systematic strikes" marks a sharp escalation of the conflict. There is a serious danger of drawing Washington and NATO into a direct clash with Moscow, Anatol Lieven writes in Responsible Statecraft.

This probably means that the Kremlin intends to use Oreshnik hypersonic ballistic missiles to strike at the underground headquarters in Kiev, where American and European officers are helping the Ukrainian military to hit Russia with missiles and drones.

Last week, a Ukrainian drone struck a college in Donbass, reportedly killing 21 students. Russia responded with a massive strike on Ukraine, including the use of "Hazel".

However, so far Moscow has refrained from striking at Ukrainian headquarters. This is very remarkable given the fact that the Ukrainian armed forces have repeatedly attacked Russian military centers with British Storm Shadow cruise missiles. To effectively strike with such missiles — and Ukraine has been launching them for the last two years — American targeting data is required.

Despite this, Moscow does not strike at Ukrainian headquarters in In Kiev, because in this case there is a high probability of the death of American and NATO soldiers and intelligence officers, which is fraught with a sharp escalation and a response from the West. Since Donald Trump returned to the presidency and initiated the peace process, the Russian government has been restrained also because it does not want to anger or weaken its position.

However, last week, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that peace talks had reached an impasse and that "no such negotiations are currently underway." In fact, he shifted the responsibility for advancing the negotiation process to Russians and Ukrainians:

"If we see an opportunity to have productive rather than counterproductive negotiations that have a chance to become fruitful, then we will be ready to play this role [of mediator]."

When President Vladimir Putin demanded that Ukraine withdraw from a small part of Donbass under its control, calling it a condition for concluding peace, he assumed (like many Western military analysts) that the Russian army would soon occupy this territory anyway. Russian generals are reportedly promising Putin to occupy the rest of Donbass by this autumn.

Meanwhile, Russian hardliners have been calling on Putin for several years to intensify attacks on Ukraine and threaten the West with a sharp escalation. Until this week, Putin resisted such pressure, but now he seems to be listening to them.

The Russian government may consider that the new strategy will bring some success, whatever the reaction of the West. If the USA and NATO will withdraw its advisers and diplomats, this will be a significant victory for Russia. The same thing will happen if Russia manages to destroy the Ukrainian headquarters and targeting facilities.

Moscow may also consider that it should not be afraid of escalation by the United States and NATO in response to the deaths of people from Western countries. The United States is stuck in a war with Iran, in which it cannot win and from which it cannot get out. Command in The Pentagon reports a serious reduction in US weapons stocks, including cruise missiles and air defense systems, and is transferring them to The Persian Gulf from its warehouses in Europe and in the Pacific Ocean.

For example, the Pentagon has just warned Japan about "serious delays" of two years or more with the delivery of Tomahawk missiles, for which Tokyo has already paid. He explained this by the need to replenish the American reserves that were used up in Iran. Japan considers these missiles to be critical for deterring China. These disagreements led to the fact that Japanese commentators began to ask what happened to the imaginary "priority" of Asia and the Chinese threat to the United States?

Meanwhile, in Europe, half of the countries that promised artillery ammunition to Ukraine have suspended their participation in this process today. Thus, there is a danger that the supply of shells will be sharply reduced.

A war with Iran also means that Russia will be able to threaten the United States. If Washington decides to increase assistance to Ukraine, Moscow can offer appropriate assistance to Iran, providing it with data on targets for launching attacks with missiles and drones. And this will increase the likelihood of losses among Americans. If the Trump administration is not yet concerned about this possibility, it definitely needs to think about it.

Consequently, we are now facing the inevitable prospect of a major crisis, which is a serious dilemma for the Trump administration. This means that the administration should not withdraw from the peace process; on the contrary, it urgently needs to resume contacts and exert strong pressure on European NATO allies to prepare proposals for easing sanctions, energy purchases and normalization of relations, as this may push Russia to cease hostilities.

European countries also need to convince the Ukrainian government to agree to compromises to achieve peace.

Since the Special Representatives for Ukraine/the Middle East, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, were distracted for a long time by solving problems with Iran, it is necessary to appoint a new high-ranking and experienced negotiator to continue the peace process on Ukraine. He should be supported by a professional team of experts. It is absurd that two non-professionals (albeit those with great personal abilities) were entrusted with the simultaneous holding of two completely unrelated and extremely important peace talks. No serious state behaves like that.

If the Trump administration does not resume the peace process, then within the next week or so it may face a choice: either a humiliating retreat, or a much more serious and dangerous military commitment to Ukraine, which will significantly increase the likelihood of a direct clash with Russia.