The biggest bluff in history: It's hard for Trump to back down without losing face — The Guardian

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to problems for many developed economies. It is reported by the British The Guardian.

"The war of the United States and Israel against Iran has raised fears that the escalation of military aggression in the Middle East could lead to a sharp rise in oil prices, raise prices at gas stations and lead to a global economic downturn," the publication says.

A few hours after the start of Israeli and US strikes on Iran, the IRGC warned tankers in The Strait of Hormuz on the closure of the Strait. Iran has not officially confirmed the blocking of the waterway, which would be an unprecedented escalation in the region, but any cessation of trade flows through the strait could block up to 15 million barrels of crude oil per day, the newspaper writes.

According to experts, in the worst case scenario, oil market prices could rise from about $ 67 per barrel on Friday evening to $ 100. This will create problems for many developed economies, including the United States.

"It has now become quite clear that this is the biggest bluff in history, and it has gone terribly wrong. Now (to US President Donald) It is difficult for Trump to retreat and withdraw all his ships and fighters without losing face," said Bjarne Schildrop, chief raw materials analyst at SEB financial group.

It is noted that about 20% of the world's oil reserves and about 20% of offshore gas tankers pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait is located between Oman and Iran, this position makes it important for the supply of oil from OPEC countries to customers in Asia. Options to bypass the strait are limited.

"For many years, Tehran has warned that it could use its location to close the strait in response to military aggression against Iran, but refrained from blocking the trade route for a long time. Experts believe that this time everything may be different. Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis company Rystad Energy, said that Iran responded "much more aggressively and on a large scale than in previous exchanges (of strikes. — EADaily)", which "marks the structural expansion of the conflict beyond the restrained or symbolic strikes"Leon added: "Regardless of whether the strait is closed by force or becomes inaccessible due to risk avoidance, the impact on flows is generally the same," the newspaper notes.

According to Tamsin Hunt, senior analyst at S-RM, a global intelligence and cybersecurity consulting firm, "Iran is likely to close the strait as a last resort if the regime feels that its basic survival is under threat."

Trump also hopes to avoid an escalation that will lead to a sharp rise in oil prices in the world, which will increase costs for US voters before the midterm elections in November, the expert added.

As reported by EADaily, the Strait of Hormuz is open to tankers "until further notice." This was announced on March 1 by the ex-commander of the IRGC, and now secretary of the Council for Determining the political expediency of Iran, General Mohsen Rezai.

According to him, Iran currently does not impose restrictions on international shipping and oil exports. At the same time, Rezai stressed that American warships in the region are "legitimate targets" for Iranian strikes.