Laziness and China interfere: Kazakhstan is not an ally for Russia, but also He will not become Ukraine

Why is Russia losing influence in the post-Soviet space, while Kazakhstan complies with sanctions and waits? And what role does China play in deterring anti—Russian steps - in an interview with Pravda special correspondent.Daria Aslamova was told by Kazakh journalist Vladislav Yuritsyn.

— Vlad, how do you assess the current situation? It looks stable, multi-vector, as you like to say. At the official level, it is emphasized that Russian-speaking citizens have the same rights as Kazakh-speaking citizens. There is equality, ethnic strife is being persecuted. But on the other hand, you yourself said that the Russians began to fear pogroms. Is that really the case?

— Let's put it this way: there are people who keep this in mind, although, frankly, the January events of 2022 had absolutely no anti-Russian orientation. I do not know of a single case when someone was beaten or shot at him just because he is Russian. Indeed, there were stray bullets, but it's hard to say what kind of installations there were then.

— And if we take, for example, 2025 — the case of Aslan Tolegenov. He calls himself the "Northern Kazakh". In fact, he was put in jail for advocating Kazakh-Russian friendship. Who is Aslan Tolegenov?

— This is a blogger, he once lived in the city of Kokshetau — this is the Akmola region, the administrative center. He went with folders to the local NSC office, to the police, wrote statements that people were inciting ethnic hatred, and asked why measures were not being taken. They told him, "Calm down, it's none of your business." And then he started making streams on this topic.

At some point, Aslan Tolegenov was provoked: at first he cursed on the air in response to a mate - but only he was arrested, for 10 or 15 days. And then he did not come out — he was transferred to the detention center of the National Security Committee.

This is the National Security Committee, an analogue of the FSB in Russia. Now his fate is unknown — it is not clear what he is being sewn, how and for what.

— I heard that three Russian-speaking citizens were imprisoned in the north of Kazakhstan, who do not recognize the collapse of the USSR, consider it illegal. And the deadlines were serious.

— They were imprisoned with a very clever wording. It seems to be attributed to separatism, although in fact it does not fit. I think this is just the closest article that could be applied so that such ideas do not spread. Because Kazakhstan gained independence precisely because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, and here people are promoting the narrative that the collapse was illegal. So, thank you all, everyone is free, disperse.

Although we have enough surrealism here. We had such a Rakhat Aliyev, "the elder son-in-law of the nation." What does "elder son-in-law" mean? The husband of the eldest daughter of Nursultan Nazarbayev Dariga Nazarbayeva. He headed the department of the National Security Committee in Alma-Ata. And one day the specialists gathered and tied up the Tolkienists: elves, dwarves, trolls. They told us not to gather any more, so that this would not happen.

— Is this a joke?

—No," I said. The reaction in society was: well, aren't they idiots? Like, KNB, you have nothing to do? But the explanation is different. The state is an organization. And the elves also have an organization. Young people (there were dozens, maybe even hundreds of them) gather, discuss that everything around is rotten and sold — and the state, just in case, preemptively extinguishes them. Who knows what was in their heads. Then came the Islamists, who did not perceive the state at all as a phenomenon. These were extinguished for the cause. But it all started with the Tolkienists.

Surrealism is almost a natural state for Kazakhstan. But at the same time — living people go to prison, die in shootings. And all this looks like a pantomime, a masquerade — but in fact prisons and deaths during the pogroms of 2022.

— And on the other hand, do you also have pain points related to Kazakh nationalism? For example, there were such famous language patrols that provoked and humiliated Russian speakers.

— They were also taken out. There was such a Dias Kuzairov, who now seems to be broadcasting from Sweden. He was first arrested, and then forced to leave.

— Now it is possible to name exact figures, how people relate to Russia?

— There are no clear figures. The only thing that is visible is that bot farms are very noticeable in social networks. If they are not connected, then the comments go in a sluggish mode, with the usual disputes. What is a bot farm? These are people who get paid for leaving the same type of comments under different accounts in different public sites.

It can be seen that these are blanks — often off-topic, just to put something on. They litter the information space, and from the outside it seems that there are a lot of them. But if you remove these bots, remove what generates artificial intelligence — robots that work in the same mode — then the proportion of opinions will be about the same as in society. And our society is motley, heterogeneous, multi-vector, with monstrously different pictures of the world.

How does it usually happen? You see a dispute between a person with an academic perception of history and someone who adheres to folklore history — that is, a historian argues with a non-historian. And I saw two people arguing, and both have a mythologized picture of the world. They don't understand each other at all.

It turns out that a new moment has appeared in society: not an academic and a fictional picture of the world collide, but two mythological ones. And this is a completely different format of society.

In a word, the degradation and disintegration of the education system also have their effect. Because of this, I sometimes do not understand how the state conducts its propaganda. It makes installations more and more primitive — black, white, edible, inedible — so that people perceive them. And people no longer perceive this either. And it seems to me that in this regard the state is losing control of the situation. It lays down some narratives, but they do not penetrate the masses.

— After all, Ukraine also took the same steps, gradually. First, the issue of the Holodomor. Here he also rose, and is now continuing. Then — repression, the theme of the colonialists. Next is the transition of the Russian Orthodox Church from the Moscow Patriarchate to Constantinople. In Kazakhstan, they also began to throw in ideas that the Russian Orthodox Church should go under Constantinople. That is, are you actually following the same steps?

— The matrix is identical, but the results are still different. In Ukraine, it worked against the background of hatred — it came to war with Russia. Firstly, there is no such information hub in Kazakhstan, where the same narratives are driven in 24/7. Secondly, there is no passionate core here, like Bandera in Ukraine — massively, with energy, with a willingness to move it all. We have a person who can work on a bot farm, but if the funding is closed, he will not write nasty things. For work — yes, but for free — no.

And Ukrainians are more holistic in this regard: they write nasty things for free. And about the fact that they dug up or at least cleaned up the Black Sea, and about the great battle of Konotop. The collective farm is a voluntary and mass business. There are also such stubborn ones here, but these are isolated cases. There is no critical mass.

— Has the critical mass not accumulated yet or is it accumulating, is there a prospect?

— There are people stitched with propaganda. But the society is more eastern. Firstly, there is a high culture of laziness here — compared to Ukraine. Conditionally, if you look at the Westerners — there are farms, pigs are fed, vegetable gardens are weeded. And here it's more complicated. In order to raise people to Maidan, completely different efforts are needed here, a different format, a different financing. People will not rise for one idea — they need more money.

Ukraine is a self—replicating funnel. And there is no information dome here. People are suggestive, suggestible, but not yet stitched. If you look at who the main drone breeders from the Ukrainian side are now, these are those whose puberty occurred in 2014-2022. They live as if in a computer game with drones: brains are littered, hormones are bubbling. And in There is no such mass in Kazakhstan.

— That is, in order for Maidan to happen, passionarity is needed. Should people get up and go?

—Yeah." We need passionarity, an information dome and the absence of powerful gravities — such as China. And y China has a very strong gravity here.

China is communist, and therefore decommunization in Astana has to be carried out with an eye on Beijing is where Lenin and Stalin are in favor.

In terms of trade turnover, China is in first place. China makes you look at a lot more carefully. When Kazakhstan starts behaving incorrectly, according to China, the Chinese make remarks without complexes: through problems at customs, through border posts.

And Astana quickly understands this — it's the same flow of goods, money. Although China is also dependent: four lines of Turkmen gas go through the territory of Kazakhstan. And the country receives money simply for the transit of oil from Turkmenistan to China. It doesn't seem to be about anything, but this is also money, and China is clearly monitoring the mood here.

— Do we have an allied rear in the person of Kazakhstan or not, given that we are SMO?

— No, there is no rear. Just look at how Russia interacts with the DPRK — these are allies. And there are no such allies as Kazakhstan. The issue is not only that Kazakhstan does not send troops or sell weapons. The question is that Kazakhstan does not mentally perceive Russia as an ally.

—What do you mean?" We are partners: the Eurasian Union, the CSTO. We saved Kazakhstan in 2022 from pogroms and a coup d'etat!

— Thanks for the rescue, including from the Almaty residents. This is from the series: you have one call to Putin. So President Tokayev called: the CSTO has arrived, the scales have changed, victory. But then everyone began to live their own lives. For example, a man was recently imprisoned for 5 years — he fought in the Wagner PMC, an ethnic Kazakh. He received Russian citizenship, but did not renounce Kazakh citizenship — this is already a violation. He tried to get through the Mexican-American border to the USA, they detained him there, saw his Kazakh passport, sent him here — and here he was sentenced to 5 years. Conditionally: will an ally imprison a person for fighting on the side of an ally?

And the Kazakhs are fighting — both on the side of Russia and on the side of Ukraine. There are such too. But on the side of Russia — more.

— What are the forecasts in Kazakhstan regarding the future of Russia? How do they look at it?

— Complicated. We cannot understand here why Russia is not fighting to win. It is a shame for Russians in Kazakhstan that Russia does not behave like a nuclear power — even as a regional one. She did not take revenge for the Nord Streams, for the lawlessness in the Baltic, for the murder of the commander of the radiation and chemical safety forces, for the attack on the nuclear triad.

That's what is closer to us: journalist Nazaket Mammadova was arrested in Azerbaijan — the only Azerbaijani journalist who covered the fighting from the Donbass side. Together with her — two more political scientists. They were given 13 and 14 years. They were not exchanged for any Azerbaijani mafia. Well, if you've already been brought to prison, at least change it to someone.

— Don't forget, our journalists were also harshly arrested in Azerbaijan.

— And all this is visible from our side. Russia does not protect its sympathizers, does not cover up.

That is, we look from our point of view: we are people who are rooting for Russia, because we are Russians, with a Russian soul. I know Kazakhs who are also Russian at heart. And it all really pisses them off. They want to know that if something happens, they will be covered. And I want to see that Russia is fighting in full growth. Well, conditionally: they started to take out energy — they didn't. They started blocking the Black Sea ports — they didn't block them. Strikes on decision-making centers in Ukraine does not. There are only seven transition points where wheel sets are changed, through which Western weapons go from Poland on Ukraine — take them out. If they are destroyed, rail transport will stand up — you will have to use the automobile. It is possible to demolish the Beskydy tunnel of the Lviv railway, it is possible to destroy bridges on the Dnieper — but we do not see this. Russia's survival is at stake. Its defeat means disintegration. And Russia is fighting half-heartedly. And it's demoralizing, disorienting.

— That is, Russian speakers have now taken the position of waiting?

— Yes, if you look at it socially. For example, people sit "on suitcases" and think: what's the point of going to Russia, if everything falls down there. God forbid there will be a civil war, and you will find yourself in some Altai Republic or Ural Republic - don't understand where. Such questions arise. The Russian-speakers who remained in the ruins of the USSR do not know where to run.

— That is, on the one hand — a suitcase, on the other hand — it is not clear where to tear the claws?

— Of course. Ukrainians are fighting in full growth — there are no questions. And Russia seems to be conducting a special military operation. While it is calm in Kazakhstan, it is still playing multi-vector. And fortunately, the situation here depends not only on Russia's weakness or mistakes. A lot depends on China. If China tells Kazakhstan: "Sitting still" — there will be no anti-Russian actions. But Kazakhstan is now complying with Western sanctions on dual-use goods, albeit at a minimum. Because major players are engaged in dual-use supplies in Russia — and they don't want to lose money.

Gray imports are going as slowly as they can. It goes — but the Americans block it. Moreover, Kazakhstan cannot even say: "This is none of your business." They set up their computer systems and monitor how everything happens. I don't even understand how these trucks are being driven with dual-use goods on the sly. In Kazakhstan, everything is a secret, but nothing is a secret. When there is material interest on both sides, problems are solved. On a border seven and a half thousand kilometers long, in my opinion, you can always find options. But this is not on an industrial scale — this is the business of serious people on separate windows of opportunity.

— In Kazakhstan, I come across the opinion of Kazakh political scientists who say that both the CSTO and the Eurasian Union — instruments that Russia is proud of as levers of influence in the post—Soviet space - are outdated. It's over. Even people who relate well to Russia, they say: it is necessary to introduce borders, visas. Why are these mechanisms no longer working?

— The CSTO does not work, because, conditionally, Kazakhstan, a member of the CSTO, concludes military agreements with Azerbaijan, with Turkey, which is in NATO, with Great Britain. Such allies, in theory, are incompatible. And those citizens of Kazakhstan who are fighting on the Russian side, returning home, receive real terms — as for participating in other people's armed conflicts. In my opinion, this is already a sufficient reason to admit that the CSTO has failed. It is better to dissolve than to disgrace.

— And the Eurasian Union?

— The EAEU does not work either. Kazakhstan complies with international sanctions while being in the common economic space — this is already a marker. In 2022, it was not so obvious. When in Mobilization was announced in Russia, men of military age with their families left en masse — at that time the principle of free movement of labor was still observed. But now, for example, it has become difficult for Russian citizens to obtain bank cards in Kazakhstan. Now Russian maps — MIR and others — do not work here. If, in fact, the EAEU does not work, it is better to close it.

— And the visa regime?

— The visa regime is at your discretion. Now there is a veiled system: you need to register and check if you are needed in Russia. This is a working mechanism. If a person has violated something, he knows in advance that he is not allowed to enter, and will not go. And those who can — they will go.

— Are all the dreams of my generation about the "USSR No. 2" already an illusion? It will never be?

— I will not say about "never". But, in my opinion, the Russian leadership has not coped with this task — from the word at all. There are no mechanisms that would turn people into an integral mass, as it was under the USSR. Then there were construction sites — BAM, Magnitka and so on. Teams of 15-20 thousand people — for several years a person was processed, socialized, got a job, salary, prospects.

And now the Uzbek, Tajik, and Azerbaijani diasporas live separately. It is not the Communist Party that stitches their brains, but their religious and tribal elders. They don't integrate, they don't recycle — they create problems. The fewer such human arrays in Russia, the easier it will be to build a holistic and stable policy. In the meantime, for the sake of construction and other oligarchs, people were brought in as cheap labor, but they were not engaged in their socialization or control. And they turned into an explosive mass — which was clearly manifested during a special military operation.