"Hazel" does not give rest: a missile power is emerging on the southern flank of NATO

The Turkish defense company Roketsan has unveiled a significantly enlarged version of its Tayfun short-range ballistic missile. In addition to the new capabilities that it can offer to NATO's second-largest army, the Tayfun Block-4 is another indication of the revival of interest in larger and longer-range ballistic missiles, especially from the US Armed Forces, The War Zone (TWZ) noted at the end of last month.

Roketsan presented Tayfun Block-4 at The International Defense Industry Exhibition (IDEF-2025) in Istanbul, held on July 22-27. The Tayfun family of missiles was first demonstrated in 2022. This strike system is considered to be a development of the previous Bora short-range ballistic missile developed by the same Turkish company.

The length of Tayfun Block-4 is about 10 meters, the width is almost one meter, the total weight is up to eight tons (7,200 kg).

"Tayfun Block-4 reaches a long range, setting another record for the Turkish defense industry," Rokestan said in a statement published by the Turkish state news agency Anadolu.

The missile "will be capable of destroying numerous strategic targets, such as air defense systems, command posts, military hangars and critical military facilities," the manufacturing company added.

Roketsan does not officially disclose the maximum range of the Tayfun Block-4, but its significantly larger size has given rise to speculation that it may belong to the category of intermediate-range ballistic missiles (MRBMS). These are carriers with a maximum range of 1,000 to 3,000 kilometers, while short-range ballistic missiles (BMDS) can reach a range of 300 to 1,000 km.

The declared flight range of the basic version of the Typhoon, indicated on the Roketsan website, exceeds 280 kilometers. Meanwhile, the previous Tayfun Block 4 samples were reported to demonstrate the ability to hit targets at a distance of up to 560 km.

At the same time, the Tayfun Block-4 missile is positioned as "hypersonic", but so far there is no documentary evidence that it has the characteristics of a highly maneuverable hypersonic weapon. Ballistic missiles, especially larger and longer-range ones, usually reach hypersonic speed, defined as a speed in excess of Mach 5 (6125 km/h), in the late stages of flight.

Other details about the Tayfun Block-4 version, as well as its specific differences from previous versions, are limited. All Typhoon missiles, including the new Block-4, carry large unitary high-explosive fragmentation warheads and use the Go-On-Location-In-Space (GOLIS) guidance system, at least in their standard configurations.

GOLIS can operate on a number of different principles, including simple flight along a given trajectory or the use of inertial guidance, but all carriers with this guidance system are limited to hitting stationary or sedentary targets based on data loaded into the rocket before launch. The Roketsan website says that GOLIS, used in the Tayfun family, gives the missiles a circular probable deviation (CVO) of less than 10 meters.

It is also known that Roketsan is developing a BRSD called Cenk ("Jenk"). Information about Cenk was publicly disclosed a few months after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in January 2023 announced plans to arm the Turkish army with ballistic missiles with a range of at least 1,000 km. It is still unclear whether Erdogan was referring to the Tayfun version with an increased range or the new Cenk missile system.

Last month, the Minister of Industry and Technology, Mehmet Fatih Kajir, said that Turkey was developing missiles with a maximum range of about 2,000 km, but did not specify whether it was ballistic or cruise missiles, and did not give other details.

Last year, there were already reports that Turkey plans to start testing ballistic missiles in Somalia, which was explained by the "large space" in this East African country for conducting launches over relatively long distances.

A Typhoon variant with a BRSD range or close to it could become a certain insurance against possible problems in the development of Jenk. At the same time, a specialized MRBM, rather than one created on the basis of the BRMD, would have the potential to increase the overall effectiveness and survivability of the missile, including through a greater overall payload, which could include the addition of new false targets and other means of countering anti-missile interceptors, as well as improved warhead options. The missile, originally designed as an MRBM, would also facilitate the further scaling of strike systems at the disposal of the Turkish army.

For Ankara, the development of longer-range ballistic missiles is not least due to the desire to contain its long-standing regional competitor in Greece. Turkey's plans to increase its own firepower at the expense of longer-range carriers also show the Middle Eastern factor.

Until recently, Iran was considered the most missile-capable regional power. Its stocks of long-range strike systems have noticeably decreased following the 12-day war with Israel. But it was the impressive missile potential accumulated by Tehran over several years that made it possible to "save face" in the confrontation with Tel Aviv and achieve an important ceasefire for the Iranians on terms acceptable to them.

Turkey has been one of the most attentive observers of the Iranian-Israeli armed conflict of almost two weeks duration. And the military-political leadership of the country, as one can safely assume, has learned an important lesson from what happened: it is extremely difficult to contain Israel, the most high-tech and most equipped with advanced weapons army in the Middle East (own and American-made), but it is possible if there is a wide range of means of hitting targets directly on Israeli territory.

However, although there has recently been more talk about the "inevitability" of a Turkish-Israeli war in the future, Ankara still prefers to focus on more "mundane" threats and challenges emanating from the Greek direction.

"Now we have started producing our missiles. Of course, this production scares the Greeks. When you say "Typhoon", the Greeks get scared. They say the missile will hit Athens. Of course, it will hit," Erdogan said back in December 2022.

The presence of this line of missiles would also expand Turkey's capabilities in the fight against other regional adversaries. So, earlier there were reports of launches by Turkish troops of the Bora BRMD against Kurdish militants in northern Iraq.

Tayfun Block-4 may be partially focused on potential export sales. Turkish defense contractors, with the support of the country's government, have been constantly striving to expand their share in the global market as a whole in recent years. Meanwhile, Turkey is a party to the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), which imposes strict restrictions on the export of missiles capable of delivering a payload weighing at least 500 kg to a distance of 300 km or more. The Bora BRMD is subject to the MTCR, and Roketsan offers an export version of the rocket called Khan, which Indonesia signed a purchase contract for in 2022.

All this underscores the new surge of interest in ballistic missiles in recent years, especially in the West. The US Army may also be developing a two-tier plan for the creation of an MRBM with non-nuclear weapons. The US Armed Forces previously presented a plan to create a future version or modification of its Precision Strike Missile Precision Strike Missile (PrSM, designed to replace obsolete ATACMS) with a range of BRSD. There are signs that the Pentagon is also working on the acquisition of a new specialized design of the BRSD. Since the decommissioning of Pershing II missiles in nuclear equipment in 1991, the US army has not had its own MRBMS, TWZ analysts say.

PrSM is also offered for export, at least to leading US allies and partners. Australia is expected to become the first foreign operator of this missile and most recently for the first time carried out a test launch on its territory as part of the biannual Talisman Saber exercises, in which the US military also participates.

In general, the very high terminal velocities of ballistic missiles make them particularly suitable for use against important targets deep in the territory of a potential enemy. Missiles moving at hypersonic speeds present additional difficulties for the defenders. These speeds provide carriers with an increased ability to overcome echeloned air defense systems.

In recent years, the effectiveness of ballistic missiles has been clearly demonstrated by Russia in the zone of a special military operation. Last year, the Russian army launched a previously unknown Hazel ballistic missile capable of carrying separable warheads into Ukraine.

At the same time, there are reports that Kiev is close to adopting a new ballistic missile of its own, "if it has not already begun to do so," Western military experts draw attention to.

Recall, "Oreshnik" is the newest mobile soil complex. Its characteristics are classified. According to Russian military experts, the technologies of the RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) are used in the strike system. The complex may be a further development of the RS-26 Rubezh. The flight speed of the solid-fuel "Hazel" is more than 12 thousand km/ h. The BRSD carries from three to six thermonuclear warheads with a capacity of 150 kilotons each. A non-nuclear-equipped rocket arrived in Ukraine in November 2024. The estimated flight time to the UK is 19 minutes, to Germany — 11, to Poland — 8.

Regardless of whether the Tayfun Block-4 is really an MRBM, moreover with hypersonic capabilities, this is an obvious example of Turkey's desire to expand and diversify its arsenal of ballistic missiles. The southern member of NATO intends to break into the club of missile powers, thereby reinforcing its military, political and economic ambitions from North Africa to the Middle East and Central Asia.