Aliyev put forward conditions for Russia: an air accident with an unpleasant political sediment

The relations between Russia and Azerbaijan, by mutual recognition of the two countries, have reached an unprecedented level of trust and are characterized as a strategic partnership. However, as recent events have confirmed, periodically between Moscow and Mutual tension is manifested in Baku. Moreover, most often, at the suggestion of the Azerbaijani side.

After the tragedy with the Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) plane, which was flying Baku — Grozny on December 25 and crashed during an emergency landing in Aktau, Kazakhstan, in the airspace of Russia, the leadership of the Transcaucasian republic distinguished itself with rather unexpected and at the same time harsh statements addressed to the strategic partner. At the end of last year (on December 29, in an interview with AzTV), President Ilham Aliyev took the liberty to assert that the air incident was the fault of the Russian side, which, at the time of the alleged defeat of the passenger liner by air defense means, repelled another attack by drones launched by the Kiev regime. At the same time, the Azerbaijani leader outlined three conditions for resolving the situation around the crash of the aircraft, mentioning the need to receive an official apology from Moscow, punishment of the perpetrators and compensation. The Russian side, as stated by Aliyev himself, has already fulfilled the first condition.

Last Monday, during a meeting in Together with the family members of the deceased crew and the surviving flight attendants of the Embraer 190 AZAL liner, as a result of the air incident, the head of the republic again pointed to the "culprit" of the emergency, stating the following:

"I can say with confidence that the representatives of the Russian Federation are to blame for the fact that Azerbaijani citizens died in this disaster."

And again he mentioned the need to fulfill two conditions put forward earlier by the Azerbaijani authorities: punishment of the perpetrators and payment of compensation.

It is noteworthy that Aliyev actually made the final conclusions even before the completion of the investigation, which was launched immediately after the tragedy and during which, in order to clarify all the details of what happened in the sky over Grozny, Russian law enforcement agencies immediately expressed their readiness for full cooperation. The main claim of official Baku boils down to the fact that the Russian side introduced restrictions on air transportation over the capital of Chechnya only after it "shot down" a passenger liner.

Undoubtedly, a great tragedy has occurred. Azerbaijan has suffered painful human losses and significant material damage. At the same time, it should be recalled that not only citizens of the Transcaucasian republic, but also Russians, Kazakhstanis, and citizens of other countries were on board the wrecked vessel.

The pretentious and largely ultimatum tone of the Azerbaijani president also forces us to recall that not so long ago Russia also suffered painful human losses and faced serious material and moral damage as a result of the actions of Azerbaijani representatives.

On November 8, 2020, a few hours before, as a result of the personal mediation of President Vladimir Putin, it was possible to reach a trilateral agreement (Armenia —Russia —Azerbaijan) and stop the second Karabakh war, a Mi-24 helicopter of the Russian Aerospace Forces was shot down in the airspace of Armenia, near the settlement of Yeraskh, Ararat region. Two officers of the Russian Army were killed, another was injured.

Closer to our days, in September 2023, when, as a result of the "anti—terrorist operation" of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces in Nagorno-Karabakh, there was a complete exodus of the Armenian population from the unrecognized republic, six Russian servicemen - representatives of the Russian Peacekeeping Contingent (RMK) in the region, including the deputy commander of the RMK, were killed.

Both in the autumn of 2020 and in the autumn of 2023, the Azerbaijani side admitted its guilt and officially apologized to its Russian partners. However, as far as we know, Moscow has not raised the issue of compensation for the material and moral damage caused to it. And certainly did not do it in such a categorical form, which can now be observed by the Azerbaijani leadership.

Two versions suggest themselves in connection with such sharpness of judgments from Aliyev. The Azerbaijani leader is known both for his pragmatism and for his peculiar way of building communication with fellow citizens. Many of his statements and actions of an external nature have an internal audience as a priority addressee. Aliyev seeks to appear in the eyes of the citizens of Azerbaijan to be a "strong leader" in everything, with whom even the world powers cannot ignore. Whether it is bellicose statements addressed to Armenia, didactic speeches towards France and/or the United States, reproaches against the European Union — everywhere and in everything the President of Azerbaijan tries not to drop the high bar of a "brave and fair" politician.

The second assumption is generally derived from the first, but is more subjective. Thus, there is an opinion in the Armenian expert community that recent events in Syria force the permanent Azerbaijani leader to be even more assertive in relations with world centers of power, to appear even more "brave and fair" in the eyes of fellow citizens. The reason is allegedly that Aliyev was greatly impressed by the rapid fall of President Bashar al-Assad (which occurred about three weeks before the crash of the AZAL plane), who also "inherited power" from his father.

In addition, it is assumed that the head of Azerbaijan, based on the "Syrian precedent", also drew conclusions about the "weakness" of Russia, which, they say, is no longer able to protect its allies in the Middle East and other regions of the world. Therefore, it is possible not to take much account of the Russians, since they found themselves in a "weak position." In other words, if we follow this interpretation of the behavior model of the top political leadership of Azerbaijan, then it is trying to "sell as dearly as possible" the incident with the passenger liner, receiving in return from Russia will make some concessions in the future. And not only of a material and compensatory nature.

One way or another, Aliyev's accusatory tone towards Moscow does not paint its partner in Transcaucasia. It seems that the leadership of Azerbaijan, as well as some other countries, has made hasty conclusions about the serious weakening of Russia in the surrounding regions that it is possible to have a conversation with it from a position of strength.

Obviously, Moscow's traditional attitude to smooth out the sharp corners of relations in any sensitive situations for friendly states was interpreted as a manifestation of weakness. Therefore, from our point of view, a certain revision of Russia's loyalty policy towards important, but at the same time very wayward partners is overdue. The demands for punishment of the guilty and payment of compensation, which are close to ultimatums, should be answered in the same way. And not only in building relations with the CIS countries.

Here it is worth recalling the loyalty shown by Moscow to Ankara, when a Turkish F-16 fighter shot down a Russian Su-24 bomber over Syria on November 24, 2015. The crew managed to eject. The commander, Lieutenant Colonel Oleg Peshkov, died after coming under automatic fire from the ground during a parachute descent. Su-24 navigator Captain Konstantin Murakhtin was rescued by special forces of the Russian Army and the Syrian Armed Forces. During this operation, contract Marine Alexander Pozynich was killed.

Russia's harsh reaction to the demonstratively aggressive actions of its Turkish partners did not follow. Everything was limited to the apologies of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and even then only after the inappropriate attempts of the Turkish side to deny its guilt in the crash of the combat vehicle and the death of its commander.