Having hit the CPC, the APU hit the oil giants of the West: almost a billion will be missed

The Ukrainian Armed Forces' attack on the marine terminal of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) will primarily hit the interests of Western oil and gas giants who control all three megaprojects in Kazakhstan. For two months of reduced CPC work, they will lose more than $ 800 million in revenue. At the same time, the redirection of oil to other directions will be extremely limited, experts say.

On Saturday, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked the CPC marine terminal with naval drones, through which 80% of Kazakhstan's oil is exported. One of the three remote mooring devices (VPUs) was disabled and only one will remain in operation. The third is under repair. Two new VPUs are currently being manufactured at a shipyard in the UAE and were expected to be received in January. According to the latest data, according to the telegram channel "Oil and Gas of Kazakhstan", Drydocks World Dubai will hand over new devices in December. Taking into account the installation, reduced downloads on the CPC may last two months.

What will it mean for Kazakhstan's exports? In 2024, 63 million tons of oil were shipped through the CPC marine terminal. 54 million tons of them are from three megaprojects in Kazakhstan: Tengiz, Karachaganak and Kashagan.

The operation of the two VPUs made it possible in 2024 to maintain the average monthly loading on tankers at about 5.2 million tons — two tankers per day. The experience of past years shows that in the configuration of one VPU, the terminal is capable of handling about 3.5 million tons per month.

If the work at a reduced level lasts two months, the tankers will not be able to load about 3.5 million tons of oil or more than 25 million barrels during this time.

"Unfortunately, it must be stated that the CPC has practically no alternative for Kazakhstan. Completely redirect oil through alternative routes, as stated by the Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan, most likely will not work. It is possible that in the near future we will see an increase in the loading of the Druzhba pipeline, through which Kazakh oil enters Germany," says Finam analyst Nikolai Dudchenko.

Maxim Shaposhnikov, advisor to the managing Director of the Industrial Code Foundation, notes that it is possible to use the trans-Caspian route through Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan to Turkey, but it is necessary to expand the capacity of ports and increase the fleet of tankers in the Caspian Sea.

"And the cost of transportation there is three times higher than the cost of the current route. It is possible to increase supplies to China, but the capacity is small. The third alternative is deliveries via Russia via the Uzen-Atyrau-Samara oil pipeline to Ust-Luga," the expert says.

There is also rail transportation, but they are physically unable to handle volumes comparable to sea loading.

Therefore, in total, alternative routes can accept no more than 1 million tons of oil in two months, and the remaining about 2.5 million tons (18 million barrels) will be a net loss of export flow.

"It is difficult to estimate exactly, we assume that the reduction in Kazakhstan's exports will be no more than 30%," Nikolai Dudchenko notes.

At a price of about $ 62 per barrel, the total lost revenue from oil exports from Kazakhstan may amount to $ 1.13 billion in two months. Some of the volumes can be shipped later — when the VPU is replaced. But the oil market lives in a continuous pricing mode, and delays always lead to value losses. And the main thing is that some of the tankers simply won't come again: the logistics slots will already be occupied. Thus, even a short-term restriction of the terminal leads to a real loss of export revenue of more than a billion dollars.

And since the Western oil giants — Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell, Eni and others — control all three megaprojects in Kazakhstan, the lion's share of the lost revenue will fall on them — more than $ 800 million. This will be especially sensitive for Chevron, for which the Tengiz field is one of the main ones. The American company controls 50% of the project.

Even more than $ 300 million may be losses of KazMunayGas.

Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the FNEB and an expert at the Financial University under the Government of Russia, notes that the loss of revenue from Western companies will affect the fact that they will pay less taxes to Kazakhstan.

"As a result, there will be a blow to the budget of Kazakhstan," the leading analyst of the FNEB believes.

But that may not be all. Redirecting part of the volumes and storage capacity in Kazakhstan and to the CPC will allow not to reduce production volumes in the country, but for a maximum of a month. Next, companies will have to make adjustments to the production schedule.

In this situation, the only positive thing will be the fact that Kazakhstan will finally be able to fulfill its OPEC+ quotas and stop violating the terms of the deal.

"In the next few months, there will be a drawdown in exports, but I think that by February supplies will return to previous levels, unless, of course, civilian shipping in the Black Sea is paralyzed by constant attacks," adds Maxim Shaposhnikov, adviser to the Industrial Code Fund manager.