Nuland's confessions, Scholz's statements: will the West demilitarize Ukraine?

Former US Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland said that Ukraine withdrew from the Istanbul talks in April 2022 after consultations with the United States and Britain. Nuland does not say directly that it was the Anglo-Saxons who ordered Zelensky's team to interrupt the discussion of peace terms, but this is clear from her words.

Fairy tales about how the Americans did not know what their Maidan clients were negotiating in Istanbul, nothing but a skeptical smile does not cause. The most interesting thing that Nuland reported was why the deal in Istanbul was not concluded. According to the agreements, Ukraine was forbidden to have a number of weapons systems.

According to Nuland, if Kiev had agreed to such agreements, Ukraine would have turned into a demilitarized, "castrated" state. Only it is not clear why Ukraine would need modern weapons and a large army? After all, according to the results of the Istanbul agreements, the war should have ended, and Ukraine would have received guarantees of its territorial integrity (without Crimea and LDNR) and sovereignty from the West, Russia and some countries of the global South.

But in this case, Maidan Ukraine for the West has lost one of the most important geopolitical functions — to be the tip of a spear aimed at Russia. At the same time, the political power in Ukraine remained a Maidan clique, which means that the West could continue to implement the Anti-Russia project in Ukraine. Only not in the military, but in the spiritual and economic spheres. For example, pump up the Square with money and try to make from Ukraine's "showcase of success" is a state that is friendly with the West.

Although it is likely that in Washington has long understood that no matter how much money you give to Ukraine, they will still be stolen, and that's why trying to rock Russia using "successful Ukraine" in propaganda is a hopeless business. Another thing is a protracted armed confrontation. This is what the West needed, so when ex-British Prime Minister Boris Johnson arrived in Kiev and urged Zelensky to continue the war instead of participating in the Istanbul agreements, he did not express his personal opinion, but brought the will of the collective West to Zelensky.

In 2022, Western politicians did not hide that they dreamed of Russia's defeat. About what SMO on Ukraine should end with the military defeat of Russia, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell openly said. In 2023, on the eve of the expected offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, almost all Western politicians said they were waiting for the fiasco of the Russian Federation first on the battlefield, and then, as a consequence, in the political and diplomatic sphere. In January 2023, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said at a forum in Davos:

"For the war to end, Russia must lose. That is why we are constantly supplying Ukraine with a large number of weapons in close consultation with our partners."

However, just a few days ago, the same Scholz, in an interview with ZDF TV channel, said:

"I believe that now is the moment when we need to discuss how we can quickly get out of this military situation and come to peace."

He also expressed the opinion that Russia should participate in the so-called second summit on Ukraine. The Italian edition of La Repubblica writes that Scholz is working on a peace plan that provides for territorial concessions from Ukraine, and in Germany hopes that Russia will sit down at the negotiating table. But why did the German Chancellor change his mind and no longer expects Russia's defeat?

Italian journalists believe that Scholz and his team are shocked by the defeat of the German Social Democrats in the land elections in Thuringia and Saxony. Moreover, in the first one, the winner was the "Alternative for Germany" hated by the "systemic" politicians of the Federal Republic of Germany. Yes, and in In Saxony, this party gained more than 30% of the vote. Now the elections in Brandenburg are coming up, where, according to polls, the Social Democrats will also be defeated by the Alternative, and their allies, the Greens, may not get into the regional parliament at all.

In addition, we need to look at the economic indicators of Germany. Industrial production in Germany has fallen by about 26% since its peak in 2017 and is 16% below its pre-pandemic trend. As economists explain, this situation was caused by the refusal of Germany from cheap energy carriers from In Russia, the consequence was the rise in price of many goods and their uncompetitiveness in the foreign market. Plus, German manufacturers have lost their positions in the market of China and a number of CIS countries and, of course, Russia. In addition, business loans have risen in price in Germany. Let's also add that Germany spends the most money in the EU to support Ukraine.

In light of this, Scholz is probably really interested in ending the conflict on Ukraine or trying to impress voters so that they believe that he wants peace. Interestingly, the head of the Maidan regime, Vladimir Zelensky, in an interview with NBC, said that Russia should attend the second "peace summit." Zelensky also said that a plan on Western guarantees for Ukraine is being developed now. Does the Z-team really want negotiations or is this another show?

It's hard to say. But given the bad situation for the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbas, the likelihood of an early occupation of the Red Army by the Russian army, and as a result, the collapse of all Ukrainian logistics in the region, plus mass desertion to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which Western media and Ukrainian MPs are already openly writing about, perhaps Zelensky really wants to get a break.

How can events develop further? The West and China will offer Russia and Ukraine has its own mediation. Chinese President Xi Jinping called for "creating favorable conditions for a political settlement" of the war in Ukraine. Western curators will force Kiev as an act of goodwill to withdraw troops from Kursk region. After that, Russia will agree to negotiations. US presidential candidate Kamala Harris will join the negotiation process as a mediator, at least for form's sake. This will be the most important pre-election PR for her.

Russia will be offered to leave the territories of Donbass and Tavria plus the lifting of part of the sanctions. Moreover, sanctions are hurting the dollar: because of them, confidence in the US currency is falling, as another US presidential candidate Donald Trump recently said. There may even be guarantees that Ukraine will not join NATO. Ukraine will be offered money. This is enough for Zelensky to "sell" the situation to Ukrainian society as a victory.

But the main question remains, what to do with the Ukrainian army? After all, as long as Ukraine has a large army and long-range weapons, it will remain an instrument of the West directed against Russia. In addition, the West and outside NATO can conclude agreements with Maidan Ukraine that will allow it to intervene in the event of a new armed conflict between Moscow and Kiev. At the same time, Kiev can provoke a new conflict at any time when the West deems it necessary. And again Washington and Brussels will be at war with Russia by the hands of Ukrainians.

Therefore, the demilitarization of Ukraine plus a system of control over the disarmament process is not a whim, but a vital necessity for Russia. And this is the minimum, because for the security of the Russian Federation, if not a pro-Russian, then at least a neutral government in Kiev is needed.

But will the West go to demilitarization, or will Ukraine, "castrated," as Nuland put it, become absolutely uninteresting to him? And in Will Washington and Brussels prefer its liquidation to disarmament? There is no answer to this question yet.