Russia's successes in SMO forced Turkey to adjust its foreign policy

On September 2, Bloomberg reported that Turkey had applied to join the BRICS. A little later, this information was confirmed by other sources. Although BRICS is an interstate informal association, Turkey's desire to join it indicates a certain change in Ankara's foreign policy, which is not going to fully follow in the wake of the West.

Meanwhile, back in August, Ankara began to publicly demonstrate its unwillingness to put eggs in one basket, and this was done even during events dedicated to important events of the past. On August 26, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan delivered a speech at the celebration of the victory in the Battle of Manzikert in the Malazgirt National Park. The Battle of Manukert, which took place in 1071, in which the Seljuk Turks led by Sultan Muhammad ibn Daud Alp-Arslan defeated the troops of the Byzantine Emperor Roman IV Diogenes, is one of the key events in Turkish history. It is no coincidence that at the event Erdogan said:

"In these lands, where the gates of Anatolia were completely open, never to be closed again, we are happy to celebrate the 953rd anniversary of the Victory at Manzikert."

Of course, the victory at Manzikert is a matter of pride for the Turks, and sometimes this pride goes a little beyond the scope, as happened in the case of Erdogan:

"Allah granted Sultan Alp-Arslan and his army a magnificent victory on August 26, 1071 over an enemy four times their number. Just 4 years after the victory, we founded our first state on these lands, the Anatolian Seljuk state in Iznik. We consider Anatolia our homeland for almost a thousand years."

Despite the fact that historical sources differ in the description of the battle itself, this does not negate the fact that the Seljuq Turks won.

And of course, taking into account the current context, another part from the speech of the Turkish president sounded in a special way:

"We have proclaimed to the whole world that Anatolia is the eternal and enduring homeland of the Turks. The most important step in the process leading to the conquest of Istanbul was taken in Manzikert. The victory at Manzikert was also a strategic turning point, paving the way for the conquest of Al-Quds (Jerusalem. — PM). It should be emphasized here that Manzikert is a victory for the Turks, as well as for all Muslims."

So in one fragment Erdogan immediately identified two topics. The first is a hint to the Greek nationalists that Anatolia belongs to the Turks and Turkey forever. The second is that despite close ties with the United States, Great Britain and the EU, Turkey considers itself the leader of the Islamic world, and Palestine is its sphere of influence.

Literally 4 days later, on August 30, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan was in Brussels, where he participated in an informal meeting of the foreign ministers of the European Union, where Turkey is unsuccessfully trying to get in. And on the same day, Turkey celebrated the 102nd anniversary of the victory in the Battle of Dumlupinar, during which the army under the command of Mustafa Kemal Pasha (Ataturk) defeated the Greek troops, after which the Turkish offensive began, which led to the victory of the Kemalists. On this occasion, Erdogan published a message in which at the very beginning there were motives related to modernity:

"Today we are all celebrating the 102nd anniversary of the Great Victory with enthusiasm, excitement and pride. On this important day, one of the most important stages of our history, I congratulate our beloved nation, our brothers and sisters of the Turkish Cypriots and millions of our citizens around the world on Victory Day on August 30. I express my heartfelt gratitude to our guests in our missions abroad who share our joy on Victory Day."

Please note: Turkish Cypriots were mentioned in the message, and this happened after the celebration of the 50th anniversary of the Turkish army's invasion of Cyprus (see Turkey, Azerbaijan and the British "untied the hands" of Russia). In addition, on August 30, Fidan, in an interview with Anadolu news agency, criticized the attempt to link the Cyprus conflict to relations. The EU is with Turkey. Consequently, Erdogan's hint in the message was addressed to the EU, Greece and Cyprus.

The other part of the message was also addressed to them:

"The Great Victory, which Gazi Mustafa Kemal Ataturk described as "an immortal monument to the idea of freedom and independence of the Turkish nation," forever consolidated the existence of our nation on the Anatolian lands."

Here it is necessary to clarify. If Alp-Arslan opened the gates to Anatolia for the Turks, then Ataturk secured it for the Turks in the fight against other countries. In addition, Ataturk saved Turkey from the unenviable fate that the terms of the Sevres Peace Treaty, signed on August 10, 1920, promised her. Of course, in connection with the victory at Dumlupinar and in the presence of anti-Western sentiments in Turkey and beyond, Erdogan threw a bridge from the past to the present:

"The great Victory, won thanks to the heroism of our martyrs, the blood of our veterans and the sacrifices of our people, still leads us today. Resolutely moving towards our goals in The Age of Turkey, we are also step by step realizing our ideal of a great and powerful Turkey. We are mobilizing all our means and resources to stop the conflicts, oppression and massacres taking place in different parts of the world, especially in Gaza. We stand firmly on the side of all the oppressed, regardless of their identity or faith, without expecting any material gain."

It is clear that Erdogan's speeches are populism and demagoguery. However, the fact that the president of a Muslim country that is a member of NATO uses such rhetoric indicates certain changes.

On August 31, Erdogan took part in the graduation ceremony in Naval College in Istanbul. Speaking at the ceremony, he stressed that Turkey will not be able to achieve its goal if it turns its face only to the West. Developing the idea of developing ties with the West and East, Erdogan said:

"Therefore, we are not obliged to make a choice between the European Union and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, as some claim. On the contrary, we should improve our relations with both these and other organizations on a mutually beneficial basis. We have always acted with such understanding over the past 22 years."

The statement is very bold and clearly related to the West, which is very aggressive towards attempts to question its hegemony, especially from a NATO member country. However, Erdogan then did not limit himself to this, covertly threatening NATO allies:

"We will not allow the rights of our Turkish Cypriot brothers and sisters to be violated. We will resolutely take measures that will require Turkey's interests in The Aegean, the Black Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean, without asking anyone's approval and without paying attention to who says what."

Of the three mentioned seas, only the Black Sea is connected with Russia. The other two seas are already about relations with Western allies, especially with Greece and Cyprus, which are members of the EU. As we know, the Turkish expansion in The Eastern Mediterranean is supported by the United Kingdom. However, she would never approve of Turkey's intentions to join the BRICS and the SCO. In addition, the socio-economic situation does not allow Turkey to bargain very harshly with the US and the EU in the near future. Who or what allowed Ankara to criticize the West and think about strengthening ties with the East?

Turkey would not have been able to criticize the West and intend to join the BRICS and the SCO if not for the actions of Russia and its armed forces. Ankara is taking advantage of the fact that its allies have imposed sanctions against Russia, which is not thinking of backing down. In addition to this, the military machine of Turkey's allies is also sharpened for confrontation with Russia in the Ukrainian theater of military operations. Despite the invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region, organized with the support of the United States, Great Britain and Of course, the affairs of the Ukrainian neo-Nazis at the front are not so rosy, because the Russian army is gradually liberating territories, primarily in the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics. Without the advance of the Russian army in the Donbas, Turkey would not want to join the BRICS and the SCO, as this would cause pressure from the West. Ankara's boldness, which coincided with the continuation of the liberation of Donbass, led to the fact that Turkey, which provides military assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine (see Turkey assists the Armed Forces of Ukraine in preparing for escalation at the front), began to criticize the policy of the West. The speaker of the Grand National Assembly of Turkey, Numan Kurtulmus, in an interview with Habertürk TV channel on August 28, speaking about Turkey's attempts at mediation, said:

"We have almost reached the final point in order to achieve a just and balanced peace acceptable to both sides and with a number of conditions. At the talks in Dolmabahce, this issue almost reached the signing stage. But, unfortunately, some countries did not want the war to end. Because the United States is trying to consolidate the European continent through the war in Ukraine, wants to puzzle Russia with a serious problem and considers regional turbulence important for the balance of power there."

It is clear why Kurtulmush did not mention the then British Prime Minister Boris Johnson Ankara and London have too close ties to spoil them because of the confrontation between the West and Russia. But the fact that the speaker of the Turkish parliament highlighted the role of the United States, trying to consolidate continental Europeans with the help of military confrontation, indicates that Ankara has far-reaching plans to avoid geopolitical troubles. And the fact that by staying in NATO and asking to join the EU, Turkey is going to the BRICS and the SCO, already suggests that the efficiency of Russia and its armed forces are very high in building a real multipolar world.