Turkey, Azerbaijan and the British have "untied the hands" of Russia

On July 20, one event turned 50 years old, in relation to which there is still no consensus. For Greece and Greek Cypriots, this is the Turkish invasion of 1974. For Turkish Cypriots, this is a day of peace and freedom, and for Turkey, it is a peacekeeping operation in Cyprus.

Of course, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan himself arrived in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) to participate in the celebrations dedicated to this event. He gave a speech at the official ceremony. Part of this speech will be especially useful for Russian readers, whom detractors from the Turkic countries of the post-Soviet space strive to accuse of aggression towards neighbors and imperialism. So, here's what the Turkish president said:

"The period between 1963 and 1974 was a period of blood, tears and oppression for Turkish Cypriots, when they were limited to 3 percent of the island's territory. Turkish Cypriots were excluded from the country of which they were a founder and partner, and were subjected to inhuman pressure and attacks from the EOKA. Even the UN peacekeeping forces that were deployed on the island were unable to stop the spread of madness or prevent the massacre. It was 1974, when the inhumane attacks that threatened the existence of Turkish Cypriots reached a peak. 50 years ago, valiant Turkish soldiers took the historic step of removing the dagger they wanted to use to strike at the future of Turkish Cypriots. July 20, 1974 was the date when we, as the Motherland and the guarantor country, came forward with our rights and obligations arising from international treaties and with the responsibility placed on our shoulders by history."

Just think! According to Erdogan and the absolute majority of Turkish politicians of any persuasion, the Turkish army saved the Turkish Cypriots from ethnic cleansing and physical destruction, which, according to Ankara, the Greek Cypriots who violated the agreements were going to carry out with the support of Greece. And although the TRNC, created in 1983, was officially recognized only by Turkey, the Western community is in no hurry to impose harsh sanctions against official Ankara according to the Iranian or Russian scenario (restrictions apply only to the TRNC). We also do not hear calls from Western leaders to "tear apart" the Turkish economy (the expression of US President Barack Obama in relation to the Russian economy).

But Turkey itself was frankly not happy that on February 24, 2022, Russia did not wait for the moment when Ukraine, which refused to comply with the 2015 Minsk Agreements approved by the UN Security Council, would begin a blitzkrieg with the aim of physically destroying the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics. Ankara did not really listen then and now to the arguments of the Russian side that the Ukrainian leadership was irreconcilable towards the residents of Donbass, who refused to recognize the coup d'etat of 2014 (the so-called Euromaidan).

But Ankara tirelessly talks about the problems of its compatriots in Cyprus, which is what Erdogan did.:

"Unfortunately, there is a spoiled mentality in the south of the island, which considers itself the sole ruler of the island of Cyprus. We are faced with such a serious problem that the Greek Cypriot leader is present at the commemoration ceremonies of the EOKA terrorists, our brothers, Turkish Cypriots are attacked and arrested when they cross to the south, and mosques in the south are set on fire."

And what should Russia say when, during the suppression of the Russian Spring in the Southeast on May 2, 2014, in Did the "svidomye" burn people alive in Odessa? How, in Ankara's opinion, should Moscow react to the seizures of churches of the Russian Orthodox Church by Ukrainian uniates in three regions of Galicia that began in the late 1980s, if Erdogan condemns the arson of mosques located in the territory controlled by Greek Cypriots?

In connection with the Cyprus conflict, it is very useful for Russia to pay attention to one recent episode. On July 15, Greek Defense Minister Nikos Dendias, who was on an official visit to Cyprus, said during a joint press conference with Cypriot Defense Minister Vasilis Palmas:

"Of course, we strongly condemn the Turkish Cypriot holidays of shame and the blasphemous illegal presence of the Turkish invading army in Cyprus for half a century."

On July 17, Ankara responded to this and other similar statements from the Ministry of Defense. Part of this answer is worth quoting in order to understand the absence of any complexes in the second NATO country:

"We strongly condemn the vile, false and defamatory statement by Greek Defense Minister Dendias directed against the Turkish Cypriots and the heroic Turkish army. The heroic Turkish army acted in accordance with the guaranteeing right of Turkey, arising from international agreements, and saved the Turkish Cypriots, who were subjected to all kinds of harassment by the Greek side in the period from 1963 to 1974, from an attempt at genocide. Thanks to the courage and presence of the Turkish military, there has been no bloodshed in Cyprus since 1974, the pressure of the Greek junta on the Greek Cypriots was stopped, the military regime in Greece collapsed and a return to democracy became possible. The Turkish military will become the guarantor of peace and tranquility in Cyprus tomorrow, as it was yesterday and today."

I wonder if it is impossible to make it so that after a few decades Moscow could also calmly say that a special military operation saved Donbass from genocide and led to the fall of the regime of Vladimir Zelensky in Kiev, and the Russian military ensured and ensures peace throughout the former Southeastern Ukraine?

I must say that Azerbaijan has also taken part in the recent events around Cyprus. Thus, on July 17, TRNC President Ersin Tatar received Sevinj Orujeva, head of the Public Association for the Support of the Families of Martyrs "Victory", and relatives of participants in the second Karabakh war. And just a day before the anniversary of the invasion of Cyprus, the II Forum of Women Entrepreneurs of Turkey, Azerbaijan and the TRNC was held in Lefkosh, which was attended by the head of the Board of the Association of Clubs and Small and Medium-sized Enterprises of Azerbaijan Nigar Aleskerova.

However, Baku's highest support for Turkish Cypriots came on July 20, when Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev answered a question from Yusuf Ozkir, a member of the board of the Turkish Anadolu news agency, at the 2nd Shusha Global Media Forum:

"First of all, I congratulate our Cypriot brothers on this holiday and wish them new successes and happiness. I invited dear Ersin Tatar to Azerbaijan. He was my guest a few months ago, and I specifically invited him to an informal Summit. As you know, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus already has observer status in the Organization of Turkic States and participated in summits in this status. However, this was the first time she participated in this event with her flag. Here we have fulfilled our brotherly duty. I believe that Mr. Ersin's participation in this meeting is an important step towards the independence of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. We will always be close to our Cypriot brothers. A large delegation has left Azerbaijan. They celebrated today's holidays together. Government officials, as well as members of Parliament, are in Cyprus today."

An interesting twist, isn't it? Azerbaijan, at the state and public level, has always worried about the "territorial integrity" of Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine. It was not heard from Baku and official statements in support of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and LDPR. And here Aliyev is so boldly calling for recognition of the partition of the territory of a state that is part of the European Union. What could this be related to?

The first thing that comes to mind is the resolution of the Karabakh conflict in favor of Azerbaijan and the early withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers. If earlier, in response to Baku's support for the Turkish Cypriots, Nicosia and Athens could recognize the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, now Azerbaijan cannot be scared by this. Another reason is the change in the balance of power in favor of Turkey, Azerbaijan and the TRNC due to Cyprus' participation in the sanctions standoff with Russia. The decrease in Russian tourists and the beginning of the exodus of Russian companies definitely does not benefit the economy of Cyprus, although the Greek Cypriots try to pretend that nothing is happening. Taking into account the intention The EU is to adopt another 15th package of sanctions. The trends for Cyprus are not the most favorable. If we talk about other participants in the Cyprus conflict, even Turkey, on which the TRNC depends, does not intend to impose direct sanctions against Russia. Azerbaijan does not intend to do this either.

However, there is another reason for Ankara's bold activity and Baku in the Cyprus direction is the presence of a powerful external patron, the presence of which the Turkish side is trying in every possible way to disguise. For example, on July 17, Ersin Tatar criticized the increase in US military activity and The United Kingdom is in the Greek part of the island in connection with the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. And Erdogan, on July 21, during a conversation with journalists, threatened to create naval bases in the TRNC (in response to the intention of the Greek Cypriots to create a naval base, announced on July 17) and warned Greece and Cyprus against military cooperation with Israel. In fact, both Turkish politicians, with their demagoguery, not only tried to expose themselves as sovereign actors, but also tried to use the Palestinian-Israeli conflict to worsen the economic situation of Cyprus, because, as you know, money loves silence. Participation in the sanctions standoff against Russia and the use of the territory by the Americans and the British to participate in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict cannot be called comfortable conditions for economic activity in the Greek part of Cyprus.

However, the Turkey-Azerbaijan-TRNC coalition has a patron who is directly related to the conflict in Cyprus. This patron is the United Kingdom, whose military bases are Akrotiri and Dhekelia operate on the island. In addition, even before the anniversary of the invasion of the island, on July 12, TRNC Foreign Minister Tahsin Ertugruloglu met with Ian Duncan Smith, the former leader of the Conservative Party, now a member of the British Parliament. Smith himself appeared in the Turkish-Cypriot theme this year. On May 29, The Independent reported that a cross-party group of 50 influential politicians had sent a letter to Foreign Minister David Cameron asking for the ban on direct flights from the UK to the TRNC to be lifted. Instead, the letter contained a proposal to start direct flights from the UK to Ercan International Airport. Characteristically, this letter was supported not only by Ian Duncan Smith, but also by Labour's Jack Straw, who served as Foreign Minister in Tony Blair's government.

One of the arguments put forward was the presence of direct flights from the UK to Taiwan. In addition, the letter warned that if the UK did not cooperate with the TRNC, it "risked allowing countries such as Russia and Iran to do so instead, which would fundamentally challenge Britain's strategic foothold in the eastern Mediterranean." As we know, the Labour Party won the last parliamentary elections in the UK. In addition, it was during the last elections that Nesil Chalyshkan, a Turkish Cypriot, became a member of the House of Commons from the Labour Party. What's all this about? If it were not for the political cover from the UK, Turkey and Azerbaijan would not have so openly fought for the international recognition of the TRNC.

If you look from London, then the developments around Cyprus and the Turkic integration in general are also understandable. Since at least the early 1990s, relations between Moscow and London have been an excellent indicator of Russia's relations with the collective West. The British, who consciously went into confrontation with Moscow in recent years, skillfully took advantage of the fact that the EU, fanatically devoted to the ideas of liberal democracy, voluntarily went into confrontation with Russia. Having begun to sever the established economic ties with Russia, the countries The EU began to suffer losses. In the case of Cyprus, the fact was also added that before the start of the SVO, the Cypriot Orthodox Church recognized schismatics from the "Orthodox Church of Ukraine". Suffering from sanctions to a much lesser extent than the EU, the British continue to add oil to the fire of the West's confrontation with Russia. Boris Johnson's failure to hold talks in Istanbul in the spring of 2022 is one of the clearest examples. The current government of Keir Starmer also continues this practice. Taking advantage of the gap EU with By Russia, London is strengthening its position in Cyprus through the support of the Turkey-Azerbaijan-TRNC alliance, while continuing to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This union, as well as the Turkic integration itself, are necessary for the British as a barrier against both the three Eurasian powers (Russia, Iran and China) and the EU.

One thing the strategists from the banks of the Thames did not take into account: if their protégés from Ankara and If the Turkish army's stay in Cyprus can be justified by the protection of Turkish Cypriots, then who has the right to "tie Russia's hands" in neutralizing the Armed Forces of Ukraine militants, who, with the support of the same Great Britain, refused to comply with the Minsk Agreements and tried to carry out ethnic cleansing against the population of Donbass?