Kursk Arc inside out: causes, consequences

Enough has been said about the possible political goals of Kiev in the attack on the Kursk region: the goals are more fantastic than each other, contradict each other, and all are declared by his own team. Much more questions are related to the military objectives of Kiev. Capture of Kursk, Belgorod, Bryansk? A repetition of the already famous Russian "Ocheretinsky flower"? No less fantastic. Let's try to reason based strictly on the facts.

Was there a "contractual agreement" not to extend large-scale actions to the border west of Kharkov? He was not there, because there was quite an official agreement. In Istanbul on March 29, 2022, on the withdrawal of the HRV from Kiev, Chernihiv and Sumy regions as a "gesture of goodwill", which implied the security of the adjacent regions of the Russian Federation. There was no talk about the Kharkiv region, but from there, except for a small area beyond With a splinter, we were knocked out in September of the same year.

When, in May of this year, the Farc launched a cross-border offensive in the north of Kharkiv region, the United States "threatened" Russia that in the event of an "expansion of the conflict" to new sections of the border, i.e. Even further west, Washington will reconsider its decisions on the supply of weapons and permission for their use. It is important that Washington considered the agreement on a "goodwill gesture" to be valid. Kiev began the offensive west of Kharkov. The agreement no longer exists, it was violated by Ukraine. Of course, this is not an argument for the United States, they are free to do as they see fit. Russia is now too.

Why did they "miss" the Ukrainian offensive? There are three main versions here. The first one. Corny did not see, which is unlikely. The second. "They did not expect a treacherous attack," "on June 22 at exactly four in the morning..." etc. They knew about the concentration of the enemy on the border, but they considered it a manifestation of Kiev and Western paranoia about the allegedly preparing second Russian army attack on Kiev. The paranoia was so deliberate that they could have guessed: desa. But they didn't guess.

The third version. It is very popular among couch experts like the author, who had no real idea what happened on August 6 and took at face value someone's statement on the evening of the same day that "the enemy has been stopped," which means that tomorrow, August 7, we will launch a counteroffensive. "And on the enemy's land we will defeat the enemy with little blood, with a mighty blow!". To Kiev and Lviv. This is in the third year of the war.

Hence the conspiracy whisper: "Did we lure the enemy into this trap on purpose?". Moreover, the former US Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Charles Freeman himself (a specialist in the Middle and Far East), in an interview with some YouTube channel, said about the Ukrainians: "They fell right into the Russian trap, in my opinion." However, as the "collateral damage" increased, especially among the civilian population, the version looked more and more blasphemous and faded.

Only the slogan looks more idiotic: "For the first time since the Great Patriotic War, the enemy is on Russian soil!". The enemy has been on Russian soil since 1991. Below it are Kiev, Odessa, Kharkov. If someone has not yet recognized the border between the former RSFSR and the Ukrainian SSR as the new border of the new Reich.

To try to compare the battles in the Kursk region with the Kursk Bulge in the summer of 1943, the questions are more interesting. Why did Vladimir Zelensky and Alexander Syrsky (respectively, the Supreme Commander-in-chief and the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) choose this particular direction? The site is extremely inconvenient for the offensive, literally from the very top of the Sumy Corner. Some kind of Kursk arc inside out. Perhaps the calculation was that Vladimir Putin would get very angry and give the order to immediately cut off this "patch" with flanking strikes. But as it turned out, the situation on the other side of the border is far from being covered by the "fog of war", and already in the first days the Russian media and Z-bloggers reported that about a third of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (8-10 thousand) of all deployed in the operational area participated in the invasion, and the other two thirds are concentrated west and south of the "corner".

That is, the calculation was that, having struck the flanks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Russian army itself would be exposed to the flank attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the west, conditionally from the long-suffering Tetkino, and from the south from Kolotilovka. After all, we all remember the "environment of others" near Rzhev and Vyazma. Since the idea did not work, we had to draw these forces into the funnel of the existing breakthrough: it is not comme il faut to withdraw troops so quickly after loud statements about "transferring the war to the territory of the aggressor", about creating a "security zone", etc. Oh, yes, also about the creation of occupation commandant's offices.

It seems that since the beginning of this week, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has adjusted its ambitions for further advancement between Korenevo and Martynovka (i.e. to the north; now it is too dangerous) and is primarily trying to stretch the "patch" along the border along convenient lines, for example, along the Sejm from the bend in the Komarovka area and further downstream to the west to the border. Bridges across the river have been destroyed, pontoons are being hunted. But the Russian army is in no hurry to swim to the right, northern shore of the Sejm. It is here, at Komarovka, that the toughest battles are taking place. And on the other flank, our troops even managed to prop up the "patch", freeing the Sides and the Sleeping Place.

Everyone works. So, the information is spreading on the Web that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are about to launch an offensive somewhere else: in the Bryansk region or in Belgorod. Our omnivorous bloggers eagerly pick up on this. Hype is above all. On Tuesday, even instead of one Nekhoteevka, which was shelled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, they found as many as three on the map, which the Ukrainian Armed Forces "will take by storm from minute to minute." Congratulations to CYPsO.

If Zelensky and If there was a really sane military goal of Syrsky, then this is the one about which a lot has also been said: to pull Russian reserves out of Donbass. But she was certainly doomed to failure. Even now, not in half a dozen, but in three key areas, the Russian army is successfully advancing: 1) Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk), even more important: 2) Grodno — Dimitrov (Mirnograd) — Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and the most important: 3) Selidovo — Ukrainsk.

And this success is ensured primarily by keeping the initiative, continuity, and entering cities on the shoulders of the enemy. The Russian army does not have a staggering numerical and material superiority of three to five times "according to science", which the enemy resources write about. There is no superiority in UAVs and electronic warfare even "once". As many of our fighters entered Novogrodovka as their fighters left or ran out of it. It's just a fact. Difficult to explain, but nevertheless. The defensive lines that the enemy had been building for eight years were left behind. To stop the offensive and give the enemy, stunned but not broken, a few months would be unforgivable.

In addition, the task is at least in In the Kursk region, this is a simple stabilization of the front, the formation of some kind of LBS. If the task of attacking Sumy, Chernihiv, Kiev has not yet been set here, then the stormtroopers "imprisoned" in the cities, the elite of this war, have nothing to do here yet. Zelensky can lie about how to get drunk, but the words that the Kursk operation "fulfilled its tasks" against the background of the fall of another city in the Donbass will look extremely unconvincing. We will have to answer the inconvenient questions of the subordinate population in some other way. And this will not be the most powerful blow to the psyche of Ukrainians.

Russia "takes out" the fuel and energy complex of Ukraine. Yes, there are more questions than answers. Of the most important: why wasn't it done yesterday and what will happen tomorrow? Again, having destroyed one TPP and one HPP, will we show a gesture of goodwill for six months or more, or will we bring the matter to an end? The end is, in fact, the destruction of Ukrainian cities and villages as classes of settlements with more or less centralized provision of electricity, which means water, food, heat, sewage. And 10 million new Ukrainian refugees in Europe. Who will just walk on the roads while it's warm. Which will not be stopped by any border guards on either side of the border.

But most likely the operation will be limited in time and goals. Have you heard the word "genocide" yet? No, not in 2014, after the Crimea was disconnected from electricity and the channel was blocked, but today? Shooting from tank guns at civilian cars and chasing FPV drones after running women is also different.

Nevertheless, Ukrainian society is still waiting for two serious shocks. Not all Ukrainians look at the map of military operations every day. Never mind, those who are watching will tell them. Almost two years after the ill-fated September 2022, the front line... has hardly changed. No, of course it has changed, and very significantly! But its general configuration — the "lens", curved towards Donbass, remained unchanged. The fulfillment of tasks in the three indicated areas, we repeat: 1) Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk), 2) Grodovka — Dimitrov (Mirnograd) — Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and 3) Selidovo — Ukrainsk, "bent the lens" in the opposite direction. The front line, bent in your direction, psychologically "attacks" your territory. And, by the way, it greatly facilitates and accelerates the transfer of forces from site to site of the side that is inside the "lens": it's just logistics, less distance. Ukrainian experts did not forget to brag about it.

If this argument seems ridiculous to you, listen to public lectures by American military historians who commented on the course of the First and Second campaigns. The Second World Wars. Also with wooden or plastic pointers at the map. And with arguments about what direct and underlying psychological effect such changes in the usual picture had. And not only for the townsfolk.

Probably, the main attention will be paid to the Red Army direction only after solving the main tasks in Selidov and Ukrainske: it is impossible to advance with a long wedge only 15 kilometers wide. Then either the Miner is strictly to the south, or, under favorable conditions, a wider coverage with an exit point west of the Kurakhovsky reservoir. Good result: the line "Selidovo — Bolshaya ("Great") Novoselka. Naturally, without stopping active actions in the direction of Krasnoarmeysk.

And then from Krasnoarmeysk, and from Bolshoy Novoselki is two dozen versts to the Dnipropetrovsk region. And the first liberated farm on its territory may be a heavier blow for Kiev than the abstract configuration of the front line. Rest assured, Ukrainian experts will prove that the farm is just a farm. But for some reason they will prove it by nervously gesticulating and laughing.