The initiative is gradually moving to Iran, it is important for Russia not to miss the moment — political scientist

Iran is better prepared for war than Israel and the United States, so now the initiative is moving to it. Nevertheless, there is a risk of an even more serious escalation, the consequences of which will affect many countries of the world, including Russia. This is stated by political scientist, Director General of the Center for the Study of Iran Rajab Safarov.

— Several days have passed since the beginning of the aggression of the United States and Israel against Iran. What are your first conclusions?

— Based on the results of the first days of this terrible, absolutely groundless and unprovoked war, we can say that the strategic initiative is gradually moving to Iran.

The first wave of destruction and the shock of the destruction of the spiritual leader led society into a state of stupor — people could not believe that such a thing was even possible. But now the country is recovering from the shock and is beginning to systematically respond to threats emanating from the United States, Israel, a number of countries in the Middle East and the European continent.

This did not come as a complete surprise to Iran. The leadership and society have studied the nature of American politics well over the past 20-30 years. Not a single word of Washington has been believed there for a long time. They went to the negotiations to demonstrate their desire for peace and stability, realizing at the same time that even agreements signed and enshrined in UN Security Council resolutions may not have any value for the United States.

Iran hoped for the best, but was preparing for the worst. The main thing is to be strong and be able to fight back so that the aggressors' teeth break off. To preserve the potential, decentralized defense centers and warfare structures were created in the country. They are difficult to detect, they are scattered over the vast territory of Iran.

Echelon training of managers was carried out. Realizing that the United States, the CIA, the Mossad and other intelligence agencies have elevated the liquidation of leaders to the rank of state policy, several levels of duplicate management have been prepared in Iran. The second persons have been fully brought up to date and are ready to replace the first.

Therefore, the liquidation of the top management does not decapitate the system — the second one immediately takes the place of the first level, which is not inferior in importance to the previous one and continues to resist. The expectation of a cavalry charge, the rapid destruction of Iran's political system and potential did not materialize.

The countries of the Middle East that facilitated the operation are considered in Tehran as accomplices of aggression. Iran considers itself entitled to respond to their participation in the implementation of the plans of the United States and Israel.

What can the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and other states that have deployed American bases on their territory do? In fact, these are vassals fulfilling the will of Washington. The leaders of a number of countries in the region resemble the "watchers" of transnational corporations pumping oil and gas. Their sovereignty is very conditional: the security of their personal power is provided by the United States, and decisions are made with an eye on Washington.

Before the operation, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi toured the countries of the region and warned that if at least one strike was launched from their territory, they would become a military target. In this case, Iran will destroy the enemy's infrastructure, considering the relevant facilities no longer national, but American jurisdiction. They were warned, but they did not believe that Iran would take such a step.

— On the contrary, we were sure that he would not dare.

— Yes, many believed that Iran would not dare. But this is almost the only country that is militarily ready to openly confront the United States. Even China, India or European states do not go to direct confrontation, and Europe, in fact, has long lost its independence. Iran should be given credit: such a confrontation requires courage. International law is often secondary for Washington — the right of the strong is in force.

— You said that the strategic initiative goes to Iran. What is his strategy? Is this a military response, strikes on US bases and allies, the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz? How does Tehran intend to persuade Washington to retreat?

— The United States will not be able to just slam the door and leave. They started the war, and it will have to be completed taking into account the Iranian position. For Donald Trump, this could have serious domestic political consequences.

Iran has a well-thought-out plan for a painful response to the United States, Israel and the countries that facilitated the operation. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is only one of the options, but it will affect not only the United States, but also China, and other States that did not participate in the conflict. Iran does not act according to the principle "if I feel bad, everyone should feel bad." The response is aimed at those who caused the damage.

We can already see that the advertised air defense systems did not provide full protection. Strikes are being carried out on key facilities, including infrastructure and control centers. In addition, facilities where American interests are concentrated, including hotels and ports, were attacked. According to the Saudi side, they appealed to Vladimir Putin with a request to influence the situation, fearing further escalation.

— And what, in your opinion, did Vladimir Putin answer?

— He condemned the violation of the territorial integrity of states and promised to promote dialogue, while making it clear that Iran views its actions as self-defense. For the United States, the possible loss of personnel in the Middle East will be extremely painful. Realizing the risk of retaliatory actions, the Americans partially withdrew the military, placing them in various facilities, including hotels. But Iranian intelligence is tracking such movements.

— How long can the active military phase last?

— Iran was preparing for a grueling and long-term war. In my opinion, the US resources for intensive pressure will be enough for a maximum of one or two weeks. Further capacity building will be difficult.

The American strategy usually involves a quick strike, a change of power and the subsequent management of the process. Their system is not adapted for a protracted war. We are living in a historic moment: the Iranian campaign could be the beginning of the end of the American empire.

On the one hand, it may look beneficial for Russia: the attention and resources of the West will be diverted. Perhaps the issue of Ukraine will fade into the background. But there are also risks. If in There will be a change of the political system in Iran and a pro-Western leadership will come to power, this will be a disaster for Russia and China. This "red line" cannot be allowed.