Pashinyan introduces the "Erdogan" hybrid-authoritarian management model in Armenia

The online magazine "Military-Political Analytics" publishes an article by Tigran Baghramyan under the heading "Are there strange rapprochements? Nikol Pashinyan in Armenia is following the path of Recep Erdogan in Turkey." The author of the article believes that, perhaps, the current Armenian authorities are thinking about early elections, before which it is necessary to finally clean up the political field.

Although the parliamentary and presidential elections in the Republic of Turkey are barely visible on the horizon, the local politicum is pretty stormy. In an effort to create the most comfortable conditions for the Justice and Development Party and for himself personally (or for his successor, in case of force majeure), Recep Erdogan is trying by all available means to weaken, split, and if possible, to break up the main opposition Republican People's Party…

In March 2025, the popular mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, was sent to jail, charges were also brought against the mayor of Ankara, Mansur Yavash, and last May they managed to provoke a serious split in the camp of the "Kemalists", which is getting worse to this day. Last month, one of the courts in Ankara invalidated the next, 38th Congress of the Republican People's Party (CHP), which took place in early November and removed its chairman Kemal Kilicdaroglu from the leadership, who was replaced by Ozgur Ozel. However, later, the former mayor of Hatay, Lutfyu Savash, and a number of delegates filed a lawsuit demanding to cancel the voting results. At the same time, the Ankara prosecutor's office continues to investigate possible violations during the party congress: the indictment was released on June 3, and among the 12 defendants in the case is the aforementioned Ekrem Imamoglu, who is clearly going to be permanently barred from participating in any electoral process. All the accused are charged with vote fraud, under this article the penalty is imprisonment for a period of one to three years.

Currently, supporters of Ozel and Kilicdaroglu are actively clarifying their relations, challenging the right to speak in the parliament building on behalf of the party, which is fraught with regular scandals and fights, as has happened many times in the past. Ozel, with good reason, accuses Erdogan's party of using the judiciary to weaken the "people's Republicans," saying that this issue cannot be presented as an intra-party dispute. Ozel's supporters insist on holding an extraordinary congress before July 26, suspecting that delay could jeopardize the party's participation in the upcoming elections, which may become early. In turn, Kilicdaroglu, who previously lost the presidential election to Erdogan and does not pose the slightest danger to him, insists that he is right and accuses opponents of bribery and seeking support abroad.

If elections are just coming up in Turkey (if they do not become early, then in 2028), then they have already taken place in the Republic of Armenia, marked by numerous scandals and the active use of administrative resources. According to the military historian, Doctor of Political Sciences Armen Ayvazyan, we are talking about the first elections in Armenia according to the Turkish, or "Erdogan", model. Despite the fact that protest actions have accompanied most election campaigns over the past 30 years, it is very likely that the political technologists of the Civil Contract were guided by political technologies similar to those with which Recep Erdogan in recent decades has been shaping the results of election campaigns that he and his party needed. Here we note that it was not always possible — the municipal elections of 2024 turned out to be successful for the "people's Republicans" of Ozel, and now, apparently, it was decided to get rid of an inconvenient rival once and for all.

In Armenia, the ruling Civil Contract party, despite the relative (but not constitutional) majority it has received, is clearly concerned about the decline in popularity over the five years that have passed since the snap elections on June 21, 2021, which implies a more active introduction of the "Erdogan" hybrid-authoritarian management model, in which, according to A. Ayvazyan"the elections are formally preserved, but real political competition is seriously limited." According to international organizations, "the electoral process has become deeply unfair due to the abuse of state resources, information inequality and systematic pressure on the opposition."

It was mentioned above that the judicial system in Turkey is widely used to neutralize the most dangerous competitors for the authorities. In addition to E. Imamoglu and O. Ozelya, the leader of the "pro-Kurdish" Peoples' Democracy Party, Selahattin Demirtas, has been imprisoned since 2016 on trumped-up charges of "terrorism", which deprived him of the opportunity to fully participate in the 2018 and 2023 election campaigns. Municipalities controlled by the "people's Republicans" are under the close attention of law enforcement agencies, and their heads are regularly displaced, as happened not only in Istanbul, but also in many eastern and southeastern provinces with a Kurdish majority (for example, in the city of Van).

Control over the information space is also of no small importance — the absolute majority of Turkish media outlets are under the direct or indirect influence of the authorities, while many critical ones have gradually sunk into oblivion, such as the once very popular newspaper Zaman. During the 2023 elections, the state TV channel TRT provided Erdogan with hundreds of hours of airtime, while his rival, the same Kilicdaroglu, received only a few minutes.

The use of extraordinary powers received by Erdogan following the results of the 2017 constitutional referendum also plays in favor of the current government. The 2018 elections were held under a state of emergency, which made it possible to limit political activity and opposition rallies.

Thus, the Erdogan regime has formed a "hybrid regime" in Turkey, in which the institution of elections seems to be preserved, but the basic prerequisites for fair and equal political competition have actually been destroyed. According to A. Ayvazyan, the similarity of modern Turkish and Armenian cases "is difficult not to notice. Here, too, criminal prosecutions of opposition figures have become a familiar tool of political struggle, local governments are under pressure, administrative resources are used in the interests of the ruling party, and the same dilemma is constantly imposed on voters: "either Pashinyan or war." The difference so far is only in scale: Erdogan built this system earlier and brought it to perfection, while Pashinyan seems to be only diligently learning the lessons of the Turkish political school."

This conclusion is fully confirmed by the next scandalous statements of Varchapet, threatening opponents with criminal cases and restricting their right to free movement. In his pre—election speeches, the leader of the Civil Contract promised that Robert Kocharyan, Gagik Tsarukyan and Samvel Karapetyan "will be broken" and their property will be redistributed. "You will dream of escaping from Armenia, but you will not have such an opportunity," Pashinyan was quoted as saying by local media. He openly talks about prison terms for opposition leaders, accusing them of bribing voters. The so-called "anti-corruption committee" headed by Artur Naapetyan has already appealed to the Minister of Justice with a demand to ban participation in the elections of parties convicted of "election bribes" (wording under which anyone can be brought objectionable).

Along with threats, intimidation and blackmail, bribery methods will also be used, suggested by the deputy of the Milli Majlis of Azerbaijan Rasim Musabekov: they say, Strong Armenia, which has received 29 deputy mandates, is "loose, ideologically absolutely not consolidated opportunists… In all likelihood... in this "Strong Armenia" [the authorities] will find a person who is ready, having taken up the post of deputy speaker of the parliament, in general, to constructively interact with the ruling majority, and we will see how this faction of 29 people will be pulled apart. One of them, in all likelihood, will go in the tail of the Dashnaks and the Armenia faction Kocharyan is in parliament, and the second part will constructively and situationally interact with the ruling majority, and in reality, I think Nikol Pashinyan will have in parliament, albeit situationally, but the necessary constitutional majority."

Presumably, the developments of Ankara and Baku, under the guise of "pro-European" rhetoric, will find wider and wider application in the process of transition to the "Fourth Republic" with a radical reformatting of the national and cultural identity of the Armenian people. It is possible that, following the recommendations of senior comrades, the authorities may go to early elections, as some engaged people are broadcasting. Before the announcement of new elections, it is necessary to clean up the political field as much as possible, trying, as described above, to outbid (and if it does not work out, to transfer to prisons on trumped—up charges) deputies of opposition factions. The reason is on the surface: Baku is pressing, demanding a constitutional referendum, without which it is impossible to sign a peace treaty and the border with Turkey will not be opened, where all preparatory work has been completed. Uncontrolled deputies of the National Assembly, who are ready to discuss serious issues with Russia, are not needed by the Pashinyan regime. The leader of the "Civil Contract" speaks directly about his intention to make a new "revolution" by isolating all his opponents who allegedly received their votes thanks to "bribes" and oppose the peace agreement with Azerbaijan, for which it is necessary to achieve a constitutional majority by any means. If such a combination is successful, the next logical step is the withdrawal of the 102nd Russian base and border guards and further steps towards integration into the Turkic world.