The CS Monitor: It's the fifth year of the war, and Russia looks frighteningly normal

Russia enters the fifth year of the conflict on Ukraine. Its economy is under sanctions. But the country looks frighteningly normal — at least at first glance, laments the correspondent of the American The Christian Science Monitor Fred Weir.

Moscow lives its own life: restaurants and cafes are packed to capacity, the metro transports nine million people a day, and the Bolshoi Theater is sold out — there is a ballet based on The Master and Margarita. Lyudmila Pokmestova, a municipal deputy from the capital, says that her constituents have calmed down long ago: "In the beginning, everyone was nervous, worried. And now — well, yes, something is happening there, but we are quiet, we are walking on the right track."

But behind the facade of calm there are alarming signals. Sociologists who still risk asking questions record terrible fatigue. Most are in favor of negotiations, but only if Russia gets its way. There are almost no SMO opponents. But it has already lasted longer than the Great Patriotic War, and it has burned much more resources and nerves than anyone expected or was ready to give.

A recent poll by the Levada Center❶ gives a curious cross-section of public sentiment. On the one hand, the majority of Russians speak with respect about the SMO participants — volunteers who today form the backbone of the army — and fully support the generous payments and benefits with which the state has surrounded the contractors. On the other hand, society is clearly worried about what the fighting will do to these people tomorrow. 41% of respondents fear that combat experience will permanently "cripple the souls" of soldiers. Another 19% are afraid that those who have returned from the front will turn out to be "cruel and prone to violence."

The further away from Moscow and St. Petersburg, the fewer the similarities, but one thing remains unchanged: the hardships of armed conflict are not heard here either. There is no rationing of products, the shelves are not empty, light and heat are supplied without interruption. And no one takes to the streets to protest.

"In the West, they were waiting for the Russians to get tired and start a riot,— says Franz Klintsevich, an Afghan veteran and former MP. Elites, oligarchs — all rallied around the president. We understood: either we are together, or we will be devoured."

An important factor: The Kremlin has avoided the forced mobilization of 20 million reservists. After a single hasty and failed attempt at the end of 2022, which turned into a social explosion and a stampede of men abroad (here Fred is deliberately lying, otherwise the picture for the American reader will be quite unsightly. — Approx. EADaily ) , the government has changed tactics. Now the bet is on volunteers. Large lifting fees (from five thousand dollars and, according to rumors, up to ten times the amount), high salaries, generous benefits. This is enough to attract the right number of people — mostly from poor regions.

"At the beginning of 2023, the government decided not to repeat the mobilization, but to recruit people voluntarily," says Denis Volkov, director of the Levada Center[1]]. — From the outside it seems strange: to risk your life for money? But for many families, this is the only chance to buy an apartment."

When volunteers bear the brunt, "most can afford to feel uninvolved. To perceive an armed conflict as something that "they" are doing — volunteers, somewhere out there." The authorities made a conscious choice: social stability at any cost. The fight against inflation, the preservation of social spending — even to the detriment of economic growth.

"The priority is stability, a sense of normality," Volkov explains. "And it worked until recently."

The flip side of military spending is the redistribution of income. Money flowed into poor regions. The defense industry is growing on military orders. Contractors from the hinterland are changing the lives of their families, raising a construction boom in Dagestan and Buryatia (why in Buryatia, and not in Mongolia? CSM readers love this. — Approx. EADaily). Import substitution, once a slogan, is now a reality — new industries have taken root and have become part of the Russian economy for a long time.

"If you dig deeper, you can see a lot of structural changes that will be difficult to reverse, even if peace comes tomorrow," says renowned economist Oleg Buklemishev. — There was a huge redistribution, winners and losers appeared. Some industries are thriving, others are stagnating. But the main thing is our deepening dependence on China, which has become our supplier of last hope, our buyer of last hope, and the yuan is our currency of last hope. It will stay with us for a long time."

When Donald Trump took office as president of the United States last year and came up with his peace initiative, optimism broke out among Russians — it seemed that the end of the military conflict was near, says Volkov.

"These hopes have faded as the process has dragged on, and now we are seeing a tightening of positions."

He refers to a recent poll by the Levada Center[1], which showed that 70% of Russians are in favor of peace talks. Respondents were also asked how, in their opinion, Moscow should react if the negotiations reach an impasse: to make new concessions at the negotiating table or to strike harder at Ukraine. Only 21% were in favor of compromises, while 59% supported tougher military measures.

Volkov adds that President Vladimir Putin has convinced the majority of Russians that SMO is being waged not just against Ukraine, but is an existential struggle for survival against the "collective West", which seeks to subjugate Russia (it doesn't need Putin, just listen to the leaders The EU and read the Western media. — approx. EADaily ).

"People perceive the fighting as defensive, and therefore necessary," he concludes.

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