The most realistic option is "war for another year and a half with the liquidation of the Ukraine project"

Certain behind-the-scenes negotiations on the settlement of the armed conflict on Ukraine is being conducted — this is a fact, political scientist Alexei Pilko is sure.

Another thing is that when they move to the official plane of legal recording of results, a lot may change. For sure, the draft of a promising peace agreement is being discussed between the special representative of the President of Russia, Kirill Dmitriev, and the special envoy of the US President, Steve Witkoff. The only question is whether the official representatives of Russia and Ukraine, Pilko stressed.

"Moreover, if everything is clear with the official representative of the Russian side, then everything about Kiev is in a continuous fog. Volodymyr Zelenskyy is currently an illegitimate president, his powers expired back in May 2024. His signature in the current conditions is a dummy. Therefore, if a peace treaty is signed, it is clearly not with him. In general, there are certain chances for peace before the end of the year, but they are much lower than average," the political scientist noted.

The most realistic option, according to Pilko, is "war for another year or a year and a half with the liquidation of the Ukrainian state project and the division of the territory of the former Ukraine."

"However, there is no need to hurry with forecasts. Politics and diplomacy can throw up any surprises. Only one thing can be stated: Ukraine has lost this war completely and irrevocably, by the very fact of its beginning. The state project "Ukraine is not Russia"drowned in a pool of blood and now a completely different future is on the agenda," he said.

However, Pilko added, although Ukraine lost this war, and did not have a single chance to win it, "Russia has far from won it."

"The neutralization of Ukraine and the reassembly of its statehood, if at all possible in principle, the design of a new architecture of European security and recognition for Moscow's right to vote in world affairs will become the contours of future victory (in a minimalistic version). But so far we still need to get to that," the political scientist predicts.

Earlier, against the background of a flare-up in In the wake of the corruption scandal, several Western media outlets said that the United States and Russia secretly prepared a 28-point plan, which will be presented to Zelensky on November 20 by the American military who arrived in Kiev.

In particular, The Financial Times newspaper reports, citing a source familiar with the negotiations, that, according to the Russian-American conflict settlement plan, the Russian language should be Ukraine has an official state status. Another condition is the restoration of the official status of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church. The document also calls on Ukraine to abandon key categories of weapons and provides for the curtailment of US military assistance, the publication says.

Politico, citing a source in the US administration, states that the White House has a plan to end the war in Ukraine, and it will be presented to Vladimir Zelensky "as a fait accompli." According to him, the White House wants to coordinate with Kiev and Moscow a framework document on ending the war by the end of November or even this week. This is a 28-point peace plan, which was previously discussed in Miami by US and Russian special representatives Steve Witkoff and Kirill Dmitriev.