The reason for the sanctions against the Russian oil giant was found in Kazakhstan: Lukoil is not needed there

Western companies would like to get Lukoil's assets in Kazakhstan's megaprojects and this could be one of the reasons for the sanctions, Kazakhstan believes. Russian experts, in turn, believe that interest in redistribution appeared after the announcement of sanctions, which puts Astana in a rather difficult position.

In the second half of November, US sanctions against Lukoil will come into force and the Russian company announced in advance that it was selling its international assets, LUKOIL International GmbH, to the Gunvor trader.

"My "conspiracy theory" is that with the help of sanctions pressure it will be possible to reduce prices and force Lukoil to sell attractive shares to American and European companies in Tengiz and Karachaganak," Olzhas Baydildinov, ex—adviser to the Minister of Energy of Kazakhstan and a member of the Club of Experts at the Senate of the country's parliament, writes in the telegram channel.

He notes that Lukoil owns a stake in two of the three megaprojects in the country — 5% in the development of the Tengiz field and 13.5% in the Karachaganak field. The Russian company also has a 12.5% stake in The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which is the main export route for Kazakh oil, and a 50 percent stake in the Kalamkas-More, Khazar, Auezov exploration block.

"Are the physical attacks (by the Ukrainian Armed Forces) on the CPC related to the same form of pressure?.. Would the consortium have been attacked if there were only American and European oil companies there without the participation of Russia and Kazakhstan?", continues Olzhas Baydildinov.

He believes that Kazakhstan's Western partners have not slept, and as a result of the planned sanctions-unmanned pressure, Russian companies may be squeezed out of large oil projects in Kazakhstan.

"So, my assumption is quite reasonable, only the other side made a fuss earlier and took the scenarios more seriously. Moreover, due to the discount on the share of Lukoil, foreign consortia can also transfer part of the share to Kazakhstan from the "master's shoulder" — in exchange for the withdrawal of all claims and the extension of contracts that are unprofitable for us. A beautiful multi-pass will turn out: And the wings of the Russian Lukoil will be cut, and the shares in TCO/KPO/CPC will be increased, and a few percent will be dropped off to the republic, and fines will not be paid, and contracts will be extended to them," the ex—adviser to the Minister of Energy of Kazakhstan added.

Participation in two megaprojects of Kazakhstan could bring Lukoil about $ 300-500 million a year. At the same time, for American companies, for example, projects in the country are not just part of international assets. So, for the oil giant Chevron, this is almost 20% of its total production. The head of the company, Mike Wirth, told Bloomberg that the extension of the concession for the Tengiz supergiant oil field in Kazakhstan, which expires in 2033, is one of Chevron's three main tasks.

Kazakhstan is also of considerable importance for the oil giant Exxon Mobil. The country is one of the five countries where the company has the highest production. At the same time, the benefit of Kazakhstan's projects lies in the fact that we are talking about long-term projects that will ensure stable production for decades to come.

The importance of Kazakhstan's production for the United States is evidenced by the fact that Lukoil received exemptions from US sanctions on the Tengizskoye field and CPC.

Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at FNEB and an expert at the Financial University under the Government of Russia, doubts that sanctions against Lukoil could have been imposed because of the interest of American companies in assets, since Rosneft, and even earlier Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz came under restrictions along with Lukoil.

"That is, this is not the reason for the sanctions. The reason is an attempt to put pressure on the Russian leadership, demonstrating that the new Trump administration can also impose strict restrictions. This is a kind of warning shot. But as a result of the introduction of sanctions, the redistribution of assets begins and, of course, Lukoil has attractive assets in Kazakhstan," the expert says.

He notes that over the past ten years, Lukoil has been more involved in international projects and now a rather active bargaining is beginning about these assets.

"Formally, Lukoil could not sell them, because in Kazakhstan it has only minority stakes, except for a project where production is not yet underway. Let's see what will eventually be included in the deal with Gunvor, but in this situation Kazakhstan could make a fuss and buy out these shares itself, because otherwise Gunvor can sell Lukoil shares to foreign companies that are already present in Kazakhstan, and this will complicate the situation for Kazakhstan, which is trying to put pressure on foreign subsoil users forcing them to pay more money to the budget," adds Igor Yushkov.

As EADaily reported, Western companies are increasing production in Kazakhstan, but the country's authorities cannot influence them to meet OPEC+ quotas, as they will violate production sharing agreements (PSAs). All three of the country's megaprojects are controlled mainly by American and European companies.

Thus, 75% of the Tengiz field development project belongs to American Chevron and ExxonMobil. Another 20% belongs to the Kazakh state-owned company KazMunayGas. And 5% to the Russian Lukoil. According to the financial statements, in 2023 the total revenue of the project amounted to $ 19.45 billion. Of these, Kazakhstan got 41.6% ($8.09 billion)