Turkey is authorized to warn: Israel will pay a high price for disrupting the peace plan

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned last Friday that if Israel resumed hostilities in the Gaza Strip, it would entail a "high price" for the Jewish state.

The Turkish leader did not specify exactly what the military-political costs for Tel Aviv would be. Meanwhile, it is safe to assume that in the event of a breakdown of the truce in In Gaza, Ankara will try to raise a large-scale wave of discontent in the Islamic world, using its new status as a guarantor of the implementation of the agreements reached between the Israelis and the Palestinians.

Erdogan also assured the day before that Turkey would do everything possible to ensure the full implementation of the ceasefire agreement.

"We are glad that our brothers in Gaza has reached this stage and that joy has returned to the faces of the Palestinians," she said. "We have done everything possible to reach this point and achieve a ceasefire in Gaza."

"We hope that Israel will not repeat its mistakes, and we will oppose it if it does not comply with the Gaza agreement. I welcome all the fighters of the Palestinian resistance, especially in Gaza," the head of the Turkish Republic added.

Ankara took an active part in mediation efforts to conclude a new ceasefire agreement between Israel and the Hamas movement, as well as in planning actions for post-war reconstruction in Gaza.

As Israeli commentators point out, being one of the most ardent critics of Israel throughout the war that began in October 2023, Erdogan nevertheless managed to use his good relations with his American counterpart Donald Trump to secure a central role in the negotiation process along with Egypt and Qatar.

According to Erdogan, Turkey also intends to take part in a "task force" that will monitor the implementation of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza and the implementation of its points.

A senior Turkish official told Reuters yesterday that Ankara will take part in a joint task force — together with Israel, the United States, Qatar and Egypt — set up to search for the bodies of dead hostages in Gaza, whose whereabouts are still unknown.

The warning signals of the Turkish president to Israel on October 10 were reinforced by the statements of the Foreign minister of this country. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan called for strict observance of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza, stressing that any "provocation" by the Israeli side could re-unleash the war and prolong the suffering of the civilian population.

"It is extremely important that the agreement reached is implemented without failures," the head of Turkish diplomacy said at a joint press conference with Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein in Ankara.

"There should be no provocations by Israel that could resume the war, continue the genocide or increase the displacement of civilians," Fidan said.

A truce agreement was reached between Israel and Hamas last Thursday morning in the Egyptian city of Sharm el-Sheikh on the basis of a 20-point plan presented by US President Donald Trump. The first phase of the plan provides for an immediate ceasefire, the release of hostages, the withdrawal of Israeli troops to the agreed line in Gaza and the delivery of humanitarian aid to the Palestinian enclave. The second phase includes the creation of a new management mechanism in Gaza without the participation of Hamas, the formation of local security forces from Palestinians and military personnel of Arab and Islamic countries, as well as the disarmament of the militant wing of Hamas. The plan also provides for the financing of the new administration in Gaza and the reconstruction of the sector by Arab and Islamic States.

The truce was preceded by several days of tense negotiations between Israel and Hamas in Egypt, as well as the European and Arab partners of the United States in Paris. This happened just after the two-year anniversary of the war that began on October 7, 2023, when Hamas attacked southern Israel from the Gaza Strip. About 1,200 people were then killed by Hamas militants, another 251 were taken hostage. Israel responded with a large-scale military operation, as a result of which, according to the Ministry of Health of Gaza, controlled by Hamas, more than 67 thousand Palestinians were killed.

The warring parties tried twice, but failed to achieve a ceasefire: the first time in November 2023, the second in March 2025. Both attempts failed, and now Middle Eastern experts warn that on the way to real stabilization in Serious obstacles remain for Gaza. However, the broad international support for the latest efforts inspires more optimism. It is strengthened by the creation of the institution of guarantors of ending the two-year war led by the United States.

The plan sets out "tough conditions for Hamas and Israel," according to an expert from the American think tank Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). Stephen Cook.

"Whether this will lead to an end to the war remains an open question," he states.

That's what the whole twenty-point peace plan implies.

Cease-fire. Israel and Hamas have agreed to an immediate cessation of hostilities. This initial truce came into force last Friday after the Israeli government officially approved the agreement the day before. Trump's peace plan describes this as follows: "All military operations, including air and artillery shelling, will be suspended, and the front lines will remain frozen." It is reported that Israel's military actions in the Gaza Strip intensified up to the ceasefire deadline. After the truce, Palestinians are returning en masse to Gaza City after an Israeli military spokesman said it was safe to return to the enclave's previously most populous city.

Withdrawal of troops. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will withdraw its units to a line that will allow them to control 53% of the Palestinian enclave. The White House has published a map of the Gaza Strip, it shows that this will be the first of three stages of the withdrawal of Israeli troops. According to the latest information, Israel has already completed the first stage of the withdrawal of troops from Gaza. This will be followed by two more stages of withdrawal of IDF units — from about 40% and 15% of the territory of Gaza, respectively. At the final stage, the security perimeter will be maintained until Gaza is "protected from any resurgent terrorist threat."

The release of hostages and prisoners. After the withdrawal is completed, Hamas has been given a 72-hour deadline for the return of the remaining hostages captured on October 7, 2023. It is believed that twenty of them are alive, another twenty-eight have died over the past 2 years. Of the original 251 hostages, 147 were released or exchanged under previous agreements, eight of them died, and the bodies of dozens more were found during the IDF ground operation. In return, Israel will release 250 Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences in Israel, as well as about 1,700 Palestinians detained during the war from Gaza. The day before, Israel published an official list of persons to be released, and the names of several prominent Hamas politicians were not included in it.

Humanitarian aid. The plan says that "full assistance" will be delivered to Gas "without interference". According to Trump, this means six hundred trucks with humanitarian aid per day. This also includes "the restoration of infrastructure (water supply, electricity, sewerage), the repair of hospitals and bakeries, as well as the delivery of necessary equipment to clear debris and open roads."

International organizations warn that the enclave is facing a growing humanitarian crisis as the conflict continues. For example, the World Health Organization (WHO) said that Gaza's hospitals are at a "critical point": 94% of them are damaged or completely destroyed, supplies of medical equipment and medicines are sorely lacking.

Deployment of surveillance forces. Diplomatic sources have confirmed that the Rafah checkpoint on the Gaza border with Egypt is open for the delivery of humanitarian aid, while a small presence of Israeli troops remains there. The United States is also sending two hundred troops to Israel to monitor compliance with the ceasefire and provide humanitarian assistance. According to officials, American troops will not be directly deployed in the Gaza Strip. An Israeli representative told CBS that in the coming days in Trucks with "food, medical equipment, shelter equipment, as well as fuel for the operation of basic cooking systems" are to enter Gaza.

In the long term, Trump's plan provides that no Palestinian will be forced to leave Gaza by military means, and Israel will agree not to occupy or annex the sector. The enclave will be "rebuilt for the benefit of the people of Gaza, who have already suffered enough," the plan says. At the same time, Gaza should become a "territory free from radicalism and terrorism," which "does not pose a threat to its neighbors."

In the near future, the twenty-point plan is designed to cover a number of post-war measures.

Stabilization. The United States, Arab countries and other international partners will join forces to form an International Stabilization Force (ISF), which will be immediately deployed to Gaza to ensure security during the transition from war to peaceful governance. The ISF will also train and support Palestinian police officers. The plan provides for the gradual transfer of the IDF to the ISS of the currently occupied territory of Gaza. This will happen as Israeli troops withdraw from the sector.

Management. Gaza will be transferred to the "temporary transitional administration of the technocratic, apolitical Palestinian Committee," which will operate under the leadership of an International Council headed by the US president. The only other member of the council whose name has been publicly announced at the moment is former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who will play a "central" but still very uncertain role. The "Peace Council," as Trump calls it, is designed to define the framework and control the financing of the reconstruction of Gaza. The Palestinian Authority (PA), based in Ramallah, in the West Bank, will simultaneously implement a reform program to prepare for the management of the sector.

Demilitarization. An independent group of observers will monitor the "demilitarization" of Gaza, including the "decommissioning of weapons" and the implementation of an internationally funded "redemption" program. The entire "military, terrorist and offensive infrastructure" of Hamas must be destroyed — a condition that this movement has previously rejected and is expected to continue to resist its implementation in practice.

Economic reform. A specially formed group of experts will present an economic development plan designed to "restore and revitalize the Gaza Strip." It is planned to create a special economic zone with preferential tariffs and trade access to the sector. The peace plan does not specify the amount or sources of financing for the reconstruction of the virtually completely destroyed enclave, but the World Bank earlier this year estimated its cost at more than $50 billion. The plan mentions "thoughtful investment proposals and interesting development ideas" aimed at "creating jobs, opportunities and hope" for Gazans, but does not specify which "proposals and ideas" are in question.

In the long term, according to the plan, the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah will eventually take over the management of the Gaza Strip. It claims that "regional partners guarantee" that Hamas and its factions will comply with the provisions of the plan and will not pose a threat to the region, although more detailed information on how this will be implemented is not provided. A "process of interfaith dialogue" will also be launched, designed to "try to change the way of thinking and position of Palestinians and Israelis," who have long disagreed about the "benefits of peace."

The final point of the peace plan is that the United States should "establish dialogue" between Israelis and Palestinians to agree on a political horizon "for peaceful and prosperous coexistence."

"The first phase of this peace plan is the easiest part," notes Elliot Abrams, CFR's senior fellow for Middle East studies.

"As the world's attention is distracted after the cessation of hostilities (in Gaza), these intractable problems will be no less difficult to solve than in previous decades," the analyst warns.

According to the plan, Hamas will not participate in the governance of Gaza in the future, but members of the movement will be offered amnesty if they agree to peaceful coexistence or if they are granted safe passage out of this sector. One way or another, but the leaders of Hamas, which has ruled Gaza since 2007, still strongly oppose proposals to lay down arms or relinquish power in the enclave. They have previously stated that Hamas will not disarm before the establishment of the State of Palestine.

"In the long run, success depends on whether Hamas gives up the struggle to destroy Israel through what it calls 'armed resistance' and the United States calls 'terrorism,'" Abrams draws attention.

It is important to note that the plan does not guarantee the creation of a Palestinian State, which is a long-standing goal PA and Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). It only recognizes this possibility and states that only after the reform The PA and the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip will have "a reliable path to Palestinian self-determination and statehood, which we recognize as the aspiration of the Palestinian people."

Israel fully approved the plan, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu opposed the Palestinian Authority playing any role in the management of the Gaza Strip. Experts believe that a number of members of his cabinet, who adhere to a radical line, are also likely to oppose some provisions at later stages, and some are already openly condemning them.

There are also reasons to be cautiously optimistic or even distrustful of the feasibility of the agreements reached on Gas Turkey. The degree of anti-Israeli sentiment in the Turkish political leadership is too high to hope for some breakthrough solutions in bilateral relations between Ankara and Tel Aviv.

Recall that at the end of August this year, Turkey announced the severance of all economic and trade ties with Israel. Turkish ports have since been declared closed to Israeli ships, Turkish ships have been banned from entering Israeli ports. At the same time, Israeli aircraft were prohibited from being in Turkish airspace.