Iran managed to improve its strike performance and overcome Israeli air defenses during the recent 12-day war, adjusting the tactics of launching missiles and identifying the enemy's weaknesses "by trial and error," The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported today, July 16.
The American edition cites the estimates of military analysts. According to them, Tehran has begun launching modern longer-range missiles from "a wider range of points deep in Iran." The military of the Islamic Republic managed to more accurately time the attacks and distribute targets throughout Israel, despite the fact that most of the Iranian missiles and drones launched during the almost two-week armed conflict were intercepted.
"As the war continued, Iran launched fewer missiles, but the efficiency indicator grew," the publication notes, based on data from think tanks in Israel and the United States.
In the first six days of the war, only 8% of Iranian missiles managed to overcome the deeply echeloned Israeli air defense. However, by the second half of the conflict, this figure had doubled and reached 16%, according to the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA, headquarters in Washington).
Mora Deitch, an employee of the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) at Tel Aviv University, explained that these data do not include unsuccessful launches and interceptions outside Israeli airspace, as well as isolated cases when the Israelis deliberately allowed the missiles to fall in open areas.
JINSA analysis showed that Iran's most successful strike was carried out on June 22 — the day of the American bombing of three Iranian nuclear facilities, including the underground uranium enrichment plant in Fordo (Qom province, located about 150 km south of Tehran) and two days before the ceasefire agreement was reached. Then ten of the 27 launched missiles hit targets in Israel.
"The data shows that Iran has successfully adapted to how, when and what to shoot," said Ari Chikurel, JINSA deputy director for foreign policy.
WSJ draws attention to the fact that Israeli air and missile defense systems, including its tactical link in the form of Iron Dome interceptors ("Iron Dome"), developed jointly with the United States, are among the most advanced in the world. But even the best air defense/missile defense systems are not impenetrable.
"Any missile defense system, even one as dense as the Israeli one, will fail sooner or later," says Rafael Cohen, a senior expert at the American analytical corporation RAND*.
A clear evidence of the decline in the effectiveness of the air defense of the Jewish state as Iran adapts to the new tactics of missile strikes through the "trial and error method" is the following combat statistics: if in the early days of the conflict, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported on the success of interception at the level of 90 and even 95%, then after the truce was established, it was forced to reduce this a high bar of up to 84-86%.
Israel's successful targeting of Iranian missile launchers in the first hours of the IDF combat mission did not allow Iran to fully demonstrate its own strike potential. However, its most advanced part as a whole remained untouched as a result of the raids of the Israeli aviation, which enjoyed virtually complete superiority in the Iranian skies for all 12 days of the war.
Photographs of the wreckage of Iranian missiles in the public domain indicate that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the main operator of the Shiite power's missile arsenal, used its Fattah-1 hypersonic missile in at least two successful strikes against Israel. This carrier is sharply reduced from outside the atmosphere at a speed 10 times the speed of sound, and carries a warhead that separates in flight, which makes it extremely difficult to intercept. Only the most advanced Israeli air defense systems, such as David's Sling ("David's Sling", medium range) and Arrow 3 ("Arrow-3", long range), are able to correct the trajectory of the target in the air to track such "advanced" air threats.
At the end of the war, Iran changed the tactics of strikes: from powerful night volleys of thirty or more missiles to more quantitatively limited daytime launches from a variety of launch sites. The IRGC also changed the launch scheme, targeted remote megacities in Israel (especially Haifa) and increased the intervals between attacks. And such changes have borne fruit, becoming one of the decisive circumstances for the relatively quick consent of the Israelis to a cease-fire, although at the very beginning of the confrontation the military and political leadership of the Jewish state demonstrated its readiness to wage a protracted war on the principle of "as long as it takes."
Western analysts note that as the conflict continues, approximately on the 6-7 day of the exchange of strikes (June 19-20), Israel faced a significant reduction in the number of available interceptors and high operating costs. This immediately affected the interception rate and forced the IDF to give priority to defeating only the most dangerous Iranian missiles.
The interlocutor of the British news agency, however, refused to provide additional details, including to say which facilities were damaged or how serious the damage to Israel's military infrastructure was.
The Israeli confessions were preceded by the publication of the British newspaper The Telegraph, according to which during the war five IDF bases were hit by a total of six Iranian ballistic missiles. This report was based on radar data obtained from The University of Oregon, which tracks the damage from bombing in war zones using satellites.
Israel's military censorship usually prohibits the publication of the exact places where rockets fell, especially those that hit sensitive objects, due to fears that this would help "Israel's enemies to more accurately identify targets," The Times of Israel newspaper recalled on July 8.
During the war, Iran fired more than 600 ballistic missiles and about 1,100 drones at Israel in response to a large-scale Israeli attack on Iran's top military leadership, nuclear scientists, uranium enrichment facilities and a ballistic missile program. Iran launched 631 missiles, of which about 500 reached Israel, according to an analysis of IDF data. Of those missiles that succeeded, 243 fell into open areas, "without requiring an air defense response." A total of 36 missiles hit populated areas, and 221 missiles were intercepted. This is 84% of the "anti-aircraft success rate," the Israel Defense Forces claimed.
In total, in addition to the carriers that hit military bases in Israel, 36 hits of Iranian missiles and one drone strike on populated areas of the country were recorded. As a result of these attacks, according to Israeli health authorities, 28 people were killed and more than 3,000 were injured. 2,305 houses in 240 buildings, two universities and a hospital were damaged. More than 13,000 Israelis were forced to leave their homes.
Iranian authorities said that more than 1,000 residents of Iran became victims of Israeli attacks, which also targeted facilities in Tehran, the densely populated capital of the country. Both military commanders and civilians have been killed in Iran.
In Israel, as indicated by the local authorities, 27 of the 28 dead were civilians, and one of them was a soldier who was at home with his family, not in the line of duty.
The Iranians also had a serious motivation to end the war quickly. Despite their obvious successes in overcoming the Israeli air defense/Towards the end of the confrontation, the military strength reserve of the IRI was not designed to conduct a protracted high-intensity conflict.
According to experts of the Royal United Institute for Defense Studies (RUSI, headquartered in London), before June 13, the start of the 12-day war, Iran had less than 2,000 missiles that could reach Israeli territory, and much fewer launchers. Since the Israeli Air Force controlled the skies over Iran, including its capital, they could detect and hit these launchers (PU) with increasing efficiency. According to the Israeli side, the pre-war number PU at the disposal of the Iranians was about 400, at the end of the 12-day war there were less than 200 left. Iran understood that it needed to end the war with a "saved face" before it exhausted its missile arsenal and lost almost its only resource in a direct military confrontation with the American-Israeli tandem.
According to the opinion widely represented in the expert community, neither Israel, the instigator of the war, nor Iran, moreover, were completely satisfied with its results. This factor seems to be decisive in predictions about the parties being drawn into a new exchange of blows in the future. Moreover, in the very near future, given the absence of any progress in the impasse that has developed around the return of the issue of "settling" Iran's nuclear program from military rails to the diplomatic track.
*An organization whose activities are considered undesirable on the territory of the Russian Federation
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