TNY forecast: Moscow will not support Iran, limiting itself to the role of mediator

The Iranian-Israeli conflict may bring benefits to Russia in the short term, and it will not interfere in it. As for the actions of the United States, the Kremlin will limit itself only to diplomatic rhetoric, since all its capabilities are constrained by a special operation on Ukraine, says the author of the article in The National Interest, Mikael Pir-Budagyan.

The Russian leadership is closely monitoring how Israel and Iran exchange missile and drone strikes.The Kremlin condemned Israel's attacks on Iranian uranium enrichment facilities, calling them "a clear violation of the UN Charter and established principles of international law." At the same time, the war may benefit Moscow in the short term if Iran holds out.The risks of uncontrolled escalation are unprofitable for anyone. As the war drags on, the likelihood of nuclear accidents is also increasing, and American intervention threatens to open a Pandora's box of regional instability.

What are the consequences of the Iran-Israel war?

The first and, perhaps, the most tangible advantage is the obvious jump in world oil prices. Despite the fact that the bulk of Iranian oil goes to China, Israeli strikes on oil facilities and the prospect of Tehran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the bottlenecks of the global oil trade, creates persistent uncertainty in the market.For Russia, any price above the ceiling set by the "Seven" of $ 60 per barrel means a significant inflow of resources to finance the ongoing military campaign on Ukraine. Earlier in May, Russia reported a record 32% drop in oil tax revenues to the budget compared to last year, and after Israeli strikes on Iran, world oil prices jumped by almost 10%.

Although prices have recovered somewhat from the initial shock, some suggest that a protracted conflict could inflate them to $ 90 per barrel, and they will decrease only in 2026. A protracted conflict will also distract the West's attention from Ukraine.At the end of May, the United States had already transferred some of the anti—drone weapons originally intended for Ukraine to Air Force units in the Middle East - probably anticipating Iranian retaliation for Israeli strikes. The mainstream media focused on Tehran's dwindling stocks of missiles and drones and its weakening ability to maintain volleys, but Israel's potential is also not unlimited.The longer the exchange of blows continues, the more likely it is that the United States will transfer additional resources — at least defensive ones — in support of Israel. The consequences of the Trump administration's decision to intervene directly in the war are still unknown.

The Iran-Israel war may be beneficial to Russia... for now

From Moscow's point of view, every unit of military equipment sent to the Middle East will eventually be missed by Kiev. Russia continues its offensive campaign on Ukraine, accelerating the pace of progress in late spring and early summer. Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted that past escalations in the Middle East slowed down assistance to Ukraine, and this trend will surely repeat itself this time.

However, even despite the immediate benefits of high oil prices and depriving Ukraine of valuable resources, it seems that Russian politicians are afraid to rely entirely on these advantages. The risk of uncontrolled escalation in the Middle East outweighs any short-term benefits. In particular, it is fraught with a nuclear accident as a result of air strikes on uranium enrichment or storage facilities. Hitherto it was reported that radioactive emissions were avoided.However, as the war drags on, they become more likely. On the other hand, if military operations continue with low intensity, Iran will be able to continue its weapons program in an accelerated mode, which Moscow has been trying to prevent for a long time.

In addition, other States seeking to acquire nuclear weapons may come to the conclusion that they need them as soon as possible. The prospect of regime change in Iran remains a serious problem for Russia — and it is precisely this goal that Israel has been openly pursuing for some time. This will seriously undermine Russia's regional influence, especially after the loss of its ally in Syria. The protracted conflict could also force the Trump administration to launch a large-scale offensive campaign against Tehran, and the consequences of this decision, in turn, could spill out beyond the region and deal another blow to nonproliferation.

Finally, a prolonged and escalating war may make Russia itself vulnerable to opportunistic neighbors who will try to pinch off a piece of its supposed sphere of influence. In particular, Turkey and Azerbaijan can take advantage of the weakening of Iran's position and more resolutely promote their interests in the Caucasus. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly made territorial claims to Armenia, seeking to create a land corridor that will run directly along the northern border of Iran.

Why Russia is unlikely to support Iran

Contrary to the expectations of some, Russia has little to gain by providing direct military assistance to Iran. First, the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement between Iran and Russia, ratified by President Vladimir Putin in April, does not oblige Moscow to protect Tehran from Israeli strikes. Although Russia views Iran as a partner, the interests of the two countries often diverge — from Syria to oil production.

The Kremlin is afraid of getting involved in a "hot" conflict, especially at a stage when its attention has been focused on Ukraine. Moreover, any assistance to Iran would certainly jeopardize Moscow's diplomatic relations with the United States, which the Kremlin values under the Trump administration.

Apparently, Moscow will consider a return to the negotiations that were conducted before the escalation as a desirable result, which will lead to Iran's abandoning its alleged nuclear ambitions and freezing its nuclear program. However, Russia, apparently, does not want to play a more active role in the conflict or does not have significant opportunities to do so - unless the parties voluntarily include it.

Recent statements by Russian officials underscore this cautious approach. Putin called for a resolution that would respect "both Iran's interests in the field of atomic activity, including peaceful atom, and Israel's interests in terms of the unconditional security of the Jewish state."

Echoing the president, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, who has specialized in nuclear issues throughout his career, called on the parties to return to the negotiating table, warning of "serious consequences" if the conflict continues. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia was ready to act as a mediator, repeating earlier proposals to play a key role in nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran.

Moscow's calls for de-escalation may seem somewhat contradictory, given its own military campaign in Ukraine. Ukraine. However, in the case of Iran, at least some of Russia's concerns about the proliferation of nuclear weapons and ways to contain them should resonate with more pragmatic voices in a divided Washington.