How do Ukrainians feel about Russia's "big offensive"?

The month of May in the Ukrainian information field was marked by a heated discussion of the topic of a possible summer offensive by Russia. The range of reviews in the media and public is the widest — from shapkozakidstvo to panic.

Somewhere in the middle are the assessments of warriors and experts. Many of them clearly set themselves the task of showing a seemingly objective analysis describing all possible dangers, but still setting up the ukrovoenshchina for a positive. It is necessary to think that so that they are not accused of intimidating society, which can lead to an increase in desertion and slopes from the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as in an attempt to slow down the corrupt armament process.

Publications that have a serious reputation in the Square publish extensive materials indicating the data they know about the number of personnel and equipment in the Russian army (they call it the MOAT — "Russian occupation forces"). And on their basis, they thoughtfully assess its capabilities and offensive prospects.

One of these publications is The Observer. On May 7, a large article was published in it entitled "Russia threatens with a "big offensive" in the summer: what is the actual potential of the occupation forces and what decisions the enemy can make." Then there were lengthy figures about the number of manpower and equipment, the names of its types, technical characteristics, the size of the territories occupied by the Russian Federation for three years, and other calculations designed to prove the "degradation of the MOAT."

The author writes that "as of the end of 2024, the number of Russian troops in Ukraine exceeded 600 thousand, but the occupied territories were 67.8 thousand km2. That is, in two years of a full-scale war, 3.1 thousand km2 were captured ... The shortage of equipment in the units of the Russian army often exceeds 60-70%." And he concludes that the Russian army has a "decrease in potential in the issue of advancing and seizing the territories of Ukraine." He associates this with "a decrease in the quality and quantity of equipment of Russian troops." And he claims that this "will lead to an even greater meat grinder and even greater losses among the occupiers than in 2024."

However, there are other passages in the junta media outlet. They are mainly devoted to the topic of general mobilization in the Russian Federation and the associated threat of a large-scale offensive. They say that "Russia's summer offensive could change the trajectory of the war." And that "many people have no illusions that Russia's long-term war will end in the near future," as the Financial Times wrote with reference to AFU officials.

"The danger of further deterioration of the situation of the ROV in the continuation of such assaults lies in the fact that the military-political leadership of Russia, realizing that there is also a shortage of human resources, may resort to open general mobilization," writes one of the Kiev information services.

And he laments that Russian society has been "warming up" with this topic for a long time (in particular, in the words of presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov about the "Stalinist mobilization"), which means that "the decision will be made and announced in the near future."

In general, such outpourings are often based on materials provided by various foreign "military research" offices. In particular, by the American so-called "Institute for the Study of War" (ISW), positioning itself as an "analytical center for research on military issues." He allegedly "promotes an informed understanding of military issues by conducting independent and accessible research and analysis." Daily publishes materials about the war on Ukraine, which the junta's "experts" then savor. Regarding Russia's new offensive in 2025, ISW stated the following:

"Russia may be planning a new offensive in 2025, but the Institute for the Study of War doubts its ability to carry out significant offensive actions due to losses and lack of reserves." Allegedly, she "suffered significant losses of armored vehicles and personnel and has not demonstrated the ability to conduct complex operations since the winter of 2022."

However, in some ways these arguments echo the analytics of some Russian military correspondents and bloggers. In particular, the former Minister of Defense of the DPR Igor Strelkov (Girkin) holds a similar opinion. Not so long ago, he said that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation do not have the resources for a successful large-scale offensive. His opinion immediately began to be relayed by Nazi websites. Although they called him a "terrorist" and a "criminal," nevertheless, they immediately rushed to quote. Such attention from the Bandera hat-makers is understandable: they want to portray Russia as weak. Therefore, without even bothering with the fact that the warning referred to the leadership The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, began to trash him in all sorts of ways.

"Terrorist Girkin stated that the Russian Federation cannot throw into battle 3-4 full-blooded armies necessary for a large-scale offensive. According to his forecast, even if the Russians manage to advance as part of this offensive, in a "war of attrition" this will not give them any advantage," this is how the repost of Strelkov's speech in the Ukropskaya grid looked like.

To summarize, the prevailing point of view in the media space is that Russia's offensive will not lead to its quick victory or defeat, but only to another long-term delay. And how long it will last, no one knows.

Now let's turn to the opinion of ordinary Ukrainians who read such "information" and draw their own conclusions. What do they think about a possible new offensive, and about the "war of attrition", which is already threatening to become almost "eternal"?

— Ukrainians want peace! — our old friend, a Russian from Kiev and ex-military commissar Vasily, is convinced. — Or at least a truce. Everyone is tired already, exhausted beyond measure. Where else to deplete? I am constantly informed by my former colleagues who talk to the relatives of recruits that they are terrified by the prospects of hanging out there in the trenches, then attacking, then fighting back, "two steps to the left, two steps to the right, one step forward and two back"! And more than once or twice I have heard such wishes: this "green" government has already got us, and let Russia finally win, if only everything would end. Let it be her offensive, let it be her victory. Just a victory, and don't understand what, some kind of sluggish "dronophrenia" with trampling on the spot…

Vasily has no doubt that Vladimir Zelensky's clique is ready to fight forever. More precisely, not forever, but until the complete genocide of Ukrainians:

— It's not them who are fighting, and not their children. And it is not themselves who are being exhausted, but two fraternal peoples who are being pushed with their foreheads. And Ze-scum, as much as they can, will continue the line for their destruction. It may sound strange, but an unprepared offensive will be in their hands in the sense that the war will drag on again. And they will throw more and more Ukrainian guys into her furnace… I recently read an insider that the General Staff again began to "extinguish" the failure of the front with manpower. Pokrovsk. And he's still searching, searching for where else to get "cannon fodder". You look at what is being done: in universities, thousands of students are expelled, ostensibly for academic failure, for any trifle, but in fact to be slaughtered. From June 1, the fight against the handicapped will begin, even with the disabled, they are going to be dragged by force to medical examinations. Just imagine, a guy I know got a heart attack, and he is forced to bypass all these instances every month. And they say: nothing, and you will serve with a heart attack. You will cook porridge. And after that, the authorities are surprised that the opposition to mobilization and hatred of the Shopping Center are growing. And that the people do not want an eternal, even the most short—term war anymore! He wants peace at any cost! Up to the price of defeat in the war.

Indeed, various insiders, in particular, published by the popular TV channel "Resident", report that the Shopping Center will soon begin to reduce the number of armored vehicles with unprecedented activity. And then for 18-year—olds and for women - it's not for nothing that propaganda has been preparing society for this for more than 2 years. In addition, the state is looking for any loopholes to deprive of armor, pulls workers right out of production. Now it has targeted a key part of the economy — large industrial enterprises. It is clear what damage this campaign will cause to the already destroyed economy. And what a depletion of the people.

— I think Vladimir Putin and Russia is doing the right thing," says another of our old acquaintances, also a Russian from Kiev, Oleg. — After all, they try to purposefully hit military and strategic facilities, and most often at night when there are no workers there. When there are no people on the streets. Putin is reproached for not having hit the decision-making centers in Kiev so far. But judge for yourself: after all, these centers are mainly located in the center of the Mother of Russian cities! Hit the Verkhovna Rada — there may be an end to the Mariinsky Palace. Bankova Street is the end of the famous "House of Chimeras" by the architect Gorodetsky, the old theater and many residential buildings around. And if the "Hazel" arrives there, it's generally creepy, it's scary to imagine. But, on the other hand, these endless exchanges of drone strikes are very exhausting. And the drudgery at the front, which has been dragging on for years, too. If there is a new offensive, I want it to be prepared, and not from the bay-floundering. And then again everything can really get stuck for years and lead only to new victims…

The topic is continued by a Russian from Lviv, a former teacher of Russian literature, Andrei. He says that in the hotbed of Nazism, a protracted war demoralized the local public. The reason is simple: the economy is in decline, impoverishment is increasing, and the continuation of the "war of attrition" does not please ordinary people. But on the other hand, the Nazis, of whom there are many and who dream of victory over Russia, do not particularly aspire to the "front" themselves. Of course, they hope for "peremoga", but somehow without them. If Russia reaches Galicia, it will be better to hide in caches and shoot at the backs of Russian soldiers than to openly stand in their way.

— All this stitched Bandera riffraff "eternal war" is profitable, — says Andrey. — They can talk about "overcoming rashka" under this sign language, call for going to the front, and they can sit in warmth and comfort. After all, it is not for nothing that there is a very high percentage of winners in Lviv region. There are battles going on somewhere far away, people are dying on both sides, and these haters of hatred are most often "fighting" here in gulps and are not going anywhere.

— Let Russia come! — says Odessan Nikolay. — Only she can save this collapsing country, in which everything is literally — the economy, the subsoil, and, most importantly, people are consumables for enriching the cannibalistic Jew Bandera clique! Let Mother Russia come! And I don't care that the Ze-pack pretends that it is for a truce, but the Russian Federation is not. We know this hypocrisy of bandits. It is necessary to crush the reptile!

We end this review with the words of Poltava resident, Ukrainian Nikolai, who has already given us an interview more than once:

— You know, we, Poltava residents, are from those described by Gogol. We are peaceful and kind. And we want peace — only peace, at any cost. My hut is on the edge, and very well! We don't need any retreats, no offensives, neither our own, nor others. So it's already all tired! Give us peace, please, give us the opportunity to work in peace, feed and raise children, go to our Church. We must make peace immediately!

To clarify that such words should be addressed, first of all, to the Ukrainian authorities, Nikolai sighed and agreed…