$ 1.4 billion: the expert estimated the damage to Western companies from the APU strike on the station in Russia

A drone strike by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on an oil pumping station, through which Kazakh oil is supplied by Western energy companies, could cause damage to US and European companies in the amount of $ 1.4 billion. Such calculations were made by the ex-adviser to the Minister of Energy of Kazakhstan and a member of the Club of Experts at the Senate of the country's parliament Olzhas Baidildinov.

"They write that CPC (Caspian Pipeline Consortium) can reduce oil pumping from Kazakhstan by 1.5−2 months by 30%. Easy calculation: 53.8 million tons of oil from Kazakhstan was transported via CPC in 2024. This is 4.5 million tons per month, 9 million in 2 months. Accordingly, 30% of this volume is 2.7 million tons or about 19.7 million barrels with a market value of about $ 1.4 billion ($ 70 per barrel)," writes Olzhas Baydildinov.

At the same time, he notes, it should be borne in mind that the Tengiz project, in which the share of American Chevron and ExxonMobil is 70%, has completed expansion and should reach increased production volumes.

"Also, the damage itself to the NPS (oil pumping station) — also money. The total amount of damage can be rounded up to $ 2 billion. Kazakh supporters of Ukraine — will you chip in to help your native Kazakhstan?", — said the ex-adviser to the Minister of Energy of Kazakhstan and a member of the Club of Experts at the Senate of the country's parliament.

Olzhas Baidildinov believes that the budget of Kazakhstan will not receive about $ 600 million or 300 billion tenge this year due to the strike of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

On February 17, the CPC reported on the attack of the Ukrainian Armed Forces by drones of the Kropotkinskaya NPS in the Kuban. The station is the largest for the consortium in Russia. The CPC said that because of the attack, the Kropotkinskaya NPS was decommissioned. In turn, Transneft, which is a shareholder of CPC, reported that the station had received serious damage and the consequences of the APU strike would be eliminated within 1.5 to 2 months.

"This may lead to a decrease in the volume of oil pumping from Kazakhstan by about 30%," Transneft said.

Oil production in Kazakhstan and its pumping through CPC oil pipelines to Novorossiysk, where raw materials are loaded into tankers, is of great importance for American energy giants. So, in the pipeline consortium, American Chevron and ExxonMobil own 22.5%. At the same time, energy giants from the United States have large shares in all three megaprojects for oil production in Kazakhstan. For example, 75% of the Tengiz project belongs to Chevron and ExxonMobil.

Transneft added that in 2024, about 74% of the volume of Kazakh oil transported fell to the share of American and other Western shippers.

"Chevron alone pumped 26.8 million tons through CPC in 2024, which is about 20% of the global production of the American corporation," Transneft said.

Sergey Vakulenko, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Berlin Center, wrote in a telegram channel that Russia could even benefit from an APU strike on an oil pumping station.

"Russia is neither cold nor hot from this. Rather, on the contrary, the world oil price may rise. Kazakhstan is in a bad way. Multinational companies are also bad. However, they can't do anything anyway, they don't have alternative export routes. However, transnational oil companies can communicate with their politicians and inform them about their concerns and dissatisfaction with what has happened. To whom these politicians will go further, to whom they will begin to apply educational measures, who will be deprived of supplies and financial assistance, you can guess for yourself. I don't see any other development of events...", the expert noted.