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Five FT scenarios with views on Trump: Ukraine without guarantees, globalization without America

Donald Trump. Photo: Evan Vucci / AP

The Financial Times newspaper presented five scenarios for the development of the situation in the world under the new US President Donald Trump.

According to the first of them, Trump makes a deal with Russia and removes sanctions from it, leaving Ukraine without security guarantees.

The sample is published by the Ukrainian edition of Strana.

1. "The New Deal of the Great Powers"

Trump's determination to avoid war and his "contempt for democratic allies" could lead the US to conclude a "new grand bargain with Russia and China."

According to it, the United States will leave Russia and China spheres of influence in their regions, and they will concentrate on asserting dominance in their own region, promoting their interests in Mexico and Canada, seeking to regain the Panama Canal and gain control of Greenland.

In this scenario, Trump will lobby for a peace agreement on Ukraine "without accompanying security guarantees," with the easing of sanctions against Russia, "and Putin's appearance at a Thanksgiving dinner in Mar-a-Lago."

A possible deal with China would include easing American technology restrictions and tariffs against Beijing in exchange for Chinese purchases of American goods and deals in China for American companies such as Tesla. Trump will also show no interest in fighting to protect Taiwan, and "US allies in Europe and Asia will be forced to fight for their own defense in a new atmosphere of insecurity."

2. "Accidental War"

The Western allies will start a trade war with each other. Political instability is spreading in Europe with the rise of populist forces sympathetic to both Trump and Putin.

In Ukraine, a ceasefire may be agreed at the same time, but in Europe fears that Russia will resume hostilities at some point. At the same time, Trump has repeatedly questioned America's readiness to defend its allies.

After that, China, Russia or North Korea — or some combination of these powers — decide to take advantage of the "Western disorder" and begin military operations in Asia and Europe. But "Asian and European democracies resist, and eventually the US gets into conflict, as it happened twice in the 20th century."

3. "Anarchy in a world without leaders"

In this scenario, the US, China, Russia and the EU avoid direct conflict. But Trump's "America First" policy creates a leadership vacuum in the West.

Economic growth around the world is being held back by Trump's trade wars. Civil conflicts in third world countries are intensifying. The UN is weakened by rivalry between great powers, and regional powers are unleashing conflicts in search of advantages and resources.

"More and more countries like Haiti are falling into violent anarchy. Refugee flows to the West are increasing. Populist parties that despise liberal democracy thrive in an atmosphere of social and economic insecurity," the FT describes the probability.

4. "Globalization without America"

The US is closing in on protectionist tariffs and leaving the World Trade Organization.

In response, the EU ratifies its new trade agreement with Latin America and signs new agreements with India and China. Europe is also opening its market to Chinese electric vehicles and environmentally friendly technologies in exchange for the fact that the Chinese are setting up factories around the world. The EU and deter Russia's aggression against Europe.

The integration of the Global South with the Chinese economy is deepening even further, and BRICS is gaining new members and influence. The use of the dollar as a global currency is declining.

5. "America First is doing well"

The flow of investments is increasing in the United States, increasing America's leadership in technology and finance. The Europeans and the Japanese are sharply increasing spending on their own defense, and this is enough to deter the "aggression of Russia and China."

US tariffs sharply reduce China's growth, putting the Chinese system in crisis. The Iranian regime is collapsing from a combination of military, economic and domestic pressure. Trump's prestige will increase at home and abroad. At the same time, hard times await American liberals, and some of Trump's enemies have been jailed. The stock market reaches a new high.

At the same time, the publication suggests that in reality the scenarios may mix," Strana writes.

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30.12.2024

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