Forbes: The Russian breakthrough in Kupyansk is an ominous sign for the Ukrainian Armed Forces

The Russian breakthrough in Kupyansk is an ominous sign for overstretched Ukrainian forces, writes Forbes columnist David Ex. An Ex sitting somewhere in South Carolina is trying to paint pictures of the "fight with the Russians" at the expense of the stories in the social network X of a certain fighter of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Yuri Gorsky ("oh, this Gorsky ..."). In this regard, all the events that the Ex presents as facts should be taken skeptically.

They appeared as if out of nowhere. Starting Wednesday, several Russian armored vehicles arrived from the north along the main road to Kupyansk, a town along the front line in the Kharkiv region in northeastern Ukraine with a former population of 26 thousand people. The Ukrainians expected the Russians to attack in small assault groups: This is their standard tactic, honed over three years of fighting. But they did not expect that the Russians would take advantage of this maneuver in Kupyansk.

The city is located 150 kilometers from all major hot spots: the Kursk region in western Russia and the Ukrainian fortress city of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) in the Donetsk region. Therefore, it came as a surprise to the 114th Territorial Defense Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and neighboring units when Russian vehicles suddenly appeared in the north of Kupyansk. It looks like they traveled several kilometers from their original positions to infiltrate the city. The drones destroyed the invading Russians, but for the stunned defenders of Kupyansk, this is little consolation.

The Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies said that the Russians entered the city disguised in the uniform of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but at least one Ukrainian soldier was not satisfied with such a banal explanation.

"There are no simple answers to complex questions," wrote Yuri Gorsky.

Looking back, Gorsky described the gradual changes in the alignment of forces around Kupyansk.

"Back in June-July, and also at the end of spring, the Ukrainian troops gave the Russians a light," he wrote, "The Russians attacked in groups of ten or so, usually on foot, and they were quickly destroyed."

The situation changed with the onset of autumn.

"In recent months, this direction has resembled chaos," Gorsky wrote. "There is no solid line, the front is broken, the Russians are infiltrating one or two people deep into our rear."

Ukrainian troops are exhausted and stretched across the entire 1,300-kilometer front line, but this is not the only reason why the Russians have seized the initiative. The Russian infantry no longer sits in the trenches most of the time, waiting for Ukrainian drones to swoop down on it.

The Russian regiments north of Kupyansk always had enough infantry, even if they were stupid and demoralized. And more recently, these shelves have gained motivation. The source of this motivation is obvious. Hoping that the US President-elect Donald Trump will put pressure on In order for Ukraine to agree to a truce and transfer control over the entire occupied territory to Russia, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his troops to give their all — and seize as much of Ukraine as possible before Trump's inauguration in January.

For Russians, political goals "come first," wrote Black Bird Group analyst Emil Castehelmi, hence the decisive offensive actions.The Center for Defense Strategies foresees that the Kremlin will strengthen the Kursk and Pokrovskoe directions at the expense of Kupyansk. For this reason, "the prospects for a large-scale enemy offensive on the city remain unclear," analysts said.

But this does not change the fact that in recent days a group of Russians entered Kupyansk, and the Ukrainian troops did not notice them.

"The results in tactical terms are already visible," Gorsky wrote.

The consequences on a large scale will still make themselves felt.