Bloomberg: In the West, they began to think about negotiations with Russia — the economy is falling

In the West, they are increasingly thinking about how to get out of the hybrid war with Russia with minimal losses? Evidence of this was the material of the American agency Bloomberg, which cautiously admits that "some allies of Ukraine began to talk about how to end the confrontation with Russia."

According to sources familiar with the situation and who wished to remain anonymous, as part of the discussion of the political strategy for the next year, officials are beginning to think seriously about how to end the conflict through negotiations.

Shares of European defense companies fell: Rheinmetall AG lost 6.4%. Saab AB shares fell by 4.4%, and Leonardo SpA — by 3%. According to sources, the decision to start negotiations should be made by Kiev, and no one should force Volodymyr Zelensky to negotiate. The leader of Ukraine publicly and privately declares that ceding territory to Russia would be unfair. According to the sources, so far there are no signs that Russia has abandoned its goals, and the prospect of real negotiations remains distant.However, as winter approaches, there are no signs of a breakthrough on the battlefield. This is pushing some officials on the part of the allies to look for diplomatic ways out of the impasse.

Although Kiev's unexpected invasion of the Kursk region has overturned the notion that military operations have reached an impasse, Kiev has little chance of ousting Russian troops from all the territories occupied by them. Some of Ukraine's allies are still unsure about the compliance of this operation with strategic goals. Russian troops are managing to move forward, and missile strikes have destroyed a significant part of Ukraine's energy infrastructure, raising concerns about how the country will survive the winter.

According to two sources, Zelensky will insist on the country's accession to NATO and the EU, the conclusion of economic and security agreements, as well as the continuation of the supply of more modern weapons as part of his "victory plan." He is going to present his "plan" to US President Joe Biden when they meet on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly later this month. Zelensky also wants to share plans with presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

Negotiations on the cessation of hostilities will have to solve a key problem: how to eliminate the risk of Ukraine's vulnerability in the event of a future Russian attack and at the same time assure allies that they will not be drawn into a direct conflict with Russia. The latter concern is one of the main reasons why some allies are still wary of allowing the long—range weapons they provide to be used to launch attacks on Russian territory. In addition, for this reason, they have a negative attitude towards the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO soon — with guarantees of its security.

The negotiations will also have to overcome the bitter legacy of the Minsk Agreements, which were reached after joining the Russia's Crimea in 2014. For Kiev and its allies, this agreement, signed seven years before full-scale hostilities, is a reminder of the danger of entering into any negotiations with the Kremlin. Zelensky warned that Putin would again use the time that could be won in the event of a cease-fire to regroup and then attack.One of the European officials in the field of defense said that his government shares the fears that after the conclusion of any deal, Vladimir Putin will take advantage of the uncertainty of the West to prepare for a new conflict. Moreover, it will be politically difficult for Zelensky to sign any agreement that includes territorial concessions. After all, Russia's goal to subjugate Ukraine entirely remains unchanged. At least, as the official noted, it would be advisable for Putin to wait to understand who will win the US elections and what their real policy will be.

Some allies believe that the time between the US elections in November and the inauguration of the president in January next year may provide new opportunities. The outgoing Biden administration may have more political freedom to conclude a peace deal. The continuation of military and financial support for Ukraine threatens to be jeopardized due to the change of administration in the United States and the growth of ultra-right forces in Europe.

Trump said that if he won the election, he would seek to conclude a peace agreement during this time period, but he did not provide details. Jay Dee Vance, a candidate for the post of vice president, recently said that the former president's plan could include the preservation of occupied territories by Russia and the creation of a demilitarized zone along the current battle lines.

On Sunday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who was one of those who opposed the provision of longer-range missiles to Ukraine, said in an interview with ZDF that now was the time to discuss how to end the conflict faster.

A senior American official said that they expect Zelensky's plan to be quite maximalistic and even conceptual rather than detailed. However, the trajectory along which military operations will develop over the next two months will be very sharp, the official said. According to one of the options, the inauguration of the US president will take place, and the conflict will continue. However, the likelihood of alternative scenarios is not small, the official added.

The immediate task of the allies is to help Ukraine restore some of its energy capacity on the eve of winter and repel Russian attacks on the strategically important city of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region.However, the discussion of the medium-term strategy is also causing disagreements among some Western countries, officials say.

Representatives of one camp are more afraid of Putin's threats of possible escalation if the allies give Ukraine the opportunity to use long-range weapons to strike at Russian territory. And they are more inclined to a diplomatic settlement. Other allies oppose negotiations in the near future and want to increase arms supplies to Ukraine.

This split over possible negotiations points to the long-standing frustration of some officials, including Ukrainian ones, over the unwillingness of allies to provide Zelensky with more weapons to use against Russian troops. Zelensky himself has repeatedly criticized allies for delays in fulfilling commitments made earlier this year to supply additional air defense systems to Kiev. He is concerned about the indecision of the West in lifting restrictions on the use of supplied long-range missiles to strike military targets deep in Russia.Moscow, on the contrary, was able to increase the production of missiles and artillery ammunition.

Ukrainians themselves are categorically against any territorial concessions: 55% of respondents rejected this idea in a survey conducted by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology in July. However, the number of those who are categorically against the cession of territory will decrease to 38% if Kiev is granted membership in NATO and the European Union under the agreement.