The railway from China to Uzbekistan: are Kyrgyz people climbing into a credit loop? — opinion

The irresistible desire of the top political leadership headed by the President of Kyrgyzstan to build a railway within the framework of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan project is already beginning to strain many in the republic. The problem of finding money for the "construction of the century" is still relevant.

The recent news that China will provide a loan of $ 2 billion 350 million for the construction of a railway to Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan alerted the population of these republics. The thing is that the total amount of the project is estimated at $ 4.7 billion. Half of this amount — $ 2 billion 350 million — will be received in the form of a loan by a Joint Project Company (SEC), which will include representatives of Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and China.

"The Chinese side itself will give 50% of this amount in the form of a loan to all parties. Each side should invest 50% of its own funds," Azamat Sakiyev, the head of the Kyrgyz Temir Zholu state company, explained at a recent parliamentary meeting, adding that Kyrgyzstan's share would amount to about 700 million US dollars.

However, the general director of Kyrgyz Temir Zholu did not specify on what terms the Chinese loan would be issued, but this is the most important thing that interests the public in Kyrgyzstan.

"We are negotiating with two Chinese banks — Ineximbank and the National Bank of China. They will provide us with a loan on a non-commercial basis. Discussions are currently underway," he said.

The statement of the country's chief railwayman that Kyrgyzstan will be given a loan on a "non-commercial basis" looks implausible. Since when did China become involved in charity? After all, everyone knows that the Chinese allocate borrowed funds to other countries on their own terms, one of which is the mandatory participation of their own labor and equipment in the implementation of the project. And therefore, the local population will not be involved in any way in the construction of a railway route on its own territory, a paradox, and that's all!

According to political scientist Valery Gladilin, there is an absurd situation when Kyrgyzstan takes a large loan from China for the construction of its part of the railway, which is being developed by them themselves, without involving local labor, and the republic will have to give it.

The expert anxiously suggests that the lack of opportunities to provide the local population with work could potentially lead to a social explosion in the republic.

"It is not difficult to imagine the reaction of ordinary people, because the authorities told us that the so—called "construction of the century" would give impetus to the economic development of the republic, many jobs would appear, people would live better, and in the end it turns out exactly the opposite," the political scientist noted.

Economist Sapar Toktosunov claims that according to the latest expert estimates, 8 billion US dollars are needed for the construction of the railway, instead of the previously announced amount of $ 4.8 billion. He noted that so far only the route of the railway is known to the public, but the cost of the project and the method of its implementation remain unclear. According to him, the construction of the railway at the expense of loans taken from China will be a risky business.

"Therefore, the most important question is on what terms Kyrgyzstan will participate in this project. In addition, there is a problem of public debt, which is only growing. Perhaps an alternative to the new Chinese loan could be the transfer to investors from The Celestial Empire has several gold deposits lying on the route of the future railway. Therefore, the financial side is the main issue and until it is resolved, we will not be able to see any steps forward," the expert believes.

Meanwhile, environmental activists in Kyrgyzstan are already beginning to express concerns about the feasibility of building a railway through the territory of the republic.

Thus, part of the railway route is planned to be laid on the territory of the Saimaluu-Tash National Park, where the objects of protection are the unique natural complexes of the Kugart tract and the largest collection of petroglyphs in Central Asia, which has great cultural and historical value, and located on the eastern slope of the Fergana Ridge in the Jalal-Abad region. Environmentalists believe that such a large-scale construction will lead to disruption of the long-standing ecosystem and cause enormous damage to the environment.

"The authorities of the republic do not seem to realize the consequences of their economic ambitions. Mass destruction of flora and fauna, poisoning of the atmosphere, land and water resources of our national heritage — that's what this construction can lead to. In the end, "Saimaluu-Tash" will turn into an ecological disaster zone, are you trying to achieve this?", representatives of the environmental movement of Kyrgyzstan ask themselves.

In general, it should be noted that declaring the construction of the railway as a new industrial breakthrough in the current economic situation looks like outright populism on the part of the Kyrgyz authorities. How can one make such an important decision for the country to participate in such a large-scale transport project without asking the people about it? After all, in the end, it was possible to hold a nationwide referendum on participation in such a costly event, ask compatriots if Kyrgyzstan really needs it, if it meets their interests, what benefits the republic and each resident will receive individually.

The authorities need to realize that the patience of the people is not unlimited, and no one will allow a narrow circle of people to decide the fate of the country for the sake of their own interests. The entire recent history of Kyrgyzstan is written in the blood of ordinary citizens who are acutely aware of social injustice, as exemplified by the many unrest, clashes, revolutions that have shaken the country over the past 30 years.