Migration from Tajikistan in Russia is shrinking, but there are more Tajiks in the country

The Ministry of Labor, Migration and Employment of the Population of Tajikistan announced a reduction, following the results of the first half of this year, migration to Russia. The reason was the tightening of migration policy, to which the Russian authorities were forced to go after the bloody terrorist attack in Crocus City Hall, the Internet resource Economic Review reports today, August 12.

In the first half of this year, according to the Tajik Migration Agency, 392.8 thousand labor migrants went abroad, which is 16% less than in the same period of the previous year (467.3 thousand). Moreover, male labor migration (-17%) has decreased more than female (-12%), which is due both to the much smaller volume of the latter, and to the fact that restrictions on entry after the events in Crocus City Hall primarily affect men who arouse suspicion among border guards and receive in connection with this entry ban.

The absolute majority of Tajik labor migrants — 98.5% - still go to work in Russia, which remains the main foreign labor market for the republic and, accordingly, the main source of remittances from abroad.

324.1 thousand people returned to Tajikistan during the same period, which is 3% more than in the first half of 2023. About a serious increase in the number of returned Tajik labor migrants from This figure does not allow Russia to speak, which debunks the myth of a massive outflow of migrants from Russia after Crocus. This myth was actively spread by a number of "foreign" Internet resources.

Moreover, the number of Tajik labor migrants who have returned to their homeland is equivalent to 82.5% of the number of those who have left abroad, which indicates a positive balance of external labor migration of the population of the republic — that is, the predominance of emigration over immigration (departure over entry).

In other words, labor migration from Tajikistan in Russia in the first half of the year, despite the restrictions that followed after Crocus, continued, albeit in somewhat smaller volumes than in the previous period.

At the same time, the accounting of external labor emigration, which is conducted by the Tajik authorities, is clearly incomplete. This is evidenced by the ratio of the figures they publish and the statistics of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia. In the first half of 2023, according to him, 1 280.9 thousand Tajik citizens entered Russia, of which 963.5 thousand indicated work as the destination of arrival. That is, even if we assume that all those who entered the If Tajiks correctly indicated work as the destination of arrival, then the Migration Ministry of the republic takes into account less than half (48.5%) of its labor migrants heading to our country. In case of maintaining the same intensity of migration as in the first half of 2023, for the year in More than 2.5 million Tajiks were supposed to enter Russia, including about 2 million for the purpose of work. And this is not counting those who have already received Russian citizenship (more than 0.5 million for 2017-2023) and are not obliged to get up for migration registration, as all foreigners should.

In the event that estimates of the volume of Tajik migration in Russia's figures for 2023 are correct, we can talk about their significant reduction compared to the previous 2022. According to its results, 4.5 million Tajik citizens were registered for migration registration in Russia, of which 3.5 million indicated work as the purpose of arrival. If in 2023 about 2.5−2.6 million Tajiks really entered Russia, then it turns out that the total migration flow decreased by almost half compared to 2022 and it decreased at a rate three times higher than recorded by the migration department of the republic.

This "compression" could have happened due to illegal migration, which is out of sight of the Tajik authorities. So, in 2022, when in 3.5 million labor migrants entered Russia from this country, they issued 755 thousand patents (21.4% of the number of Tajiks registered for migration registration), and in the first half of 2023, out of 963.5 thousand Tajik citizens who indicated work as the purpose of arrival, 407.7 thousand patents (42.3%) were already issued patents. It turns out that the level of legality of migration has doubled over this period, and the reduction of illegal migration, recorded by the migration statistics of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, has led to a drop in its total volume.

At the same time, the reduction in registered migration from Tajikistan in 2023 did not affect the volume of remittances. On the contrary, last year, according to the World Bank, the republic received a record amount of $5.7 billion in remittances from abroad, which is equivalent to almost half (48.2%) of its GDP.

Moreover, their volume has been steadily growing compared to 2022. ($5.3 billion), and especially 2021. ($2.9 billion), when it was almost twice as low. It is worth bearing in mind, however, that in 2021 There were also quarantine restrictions, the removal of which in the next 2022 led to a sharp increase in the earnings of migrants.

In addition, the growth of remittances was clearly influenced by an increase in demand for labor and an increase in the level of wages, which began during the COVID-19 epidemic. After starting SMO on In Ukraine, this trend has further intensified due to the announcement of partial and subsequent voluntary mobilization, as well as economic growth, which has increased the demand for foreign labor and the level of its remuneration.

Part of the reason for the increase in remittances could be the influx of Russian relocators after the announcement of partial mobilization in the fall of 2022. Tajikistan turned out to be far from the most popular destination for their emigration. Nevertheless, according to the FSB Border Guard Service, 225 thousand Russian citizens entered the republic in just nine months of 2022, the number of which has more than tripled by the end of the year. Some of the Russian citizens visited the republic as tourists, and most of the relocators subsequently went in transit to other countries. But even their temporary influx could well affect the growth of remittances from Russia, as it happened in other "relocation countries" (Armenia, Georgia, etc.).

The reason for the reduction in labor emigration in the first half of this year, the Migration Department of Tajikistan quite reasonably considers the tightening of Russia's migration policy after the terrorist attack in Crocus City Hall. The Department's report on the situation on the labor market notes the introduction of amendments to a number of regulatory legal acts of Russia, including the law "On the legal status of foreign Citizens" and a number of internal acts of the Ministry of Internal Affairs that have tightened the regime of stay of foreigners.

According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia, published in mid-June, since the beginning of this year from More than 30 thousand foreigners were expelled to Russia, which is almost twice as much as in the same period of the previous year. In addition, 100 thousand foreigners were banned from entering the Russia, which is 55% more than last year's figures. Tajikistan, which is the second largest number of labor migrants to Russia after Uzbekistan, could not but be affected by these changes.

In order to reduce the negative effect of these changes, the Migration Agency of Tajikistan is conducting explanatory work among citizens, as well as negotiations with the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs, which plans to open a branch of the passport and visa service in the country to pre-check the presence of entry bans in The Russian Federation. In addition, it is planned to open a medical facility in Tajikistan for examining migrants, as well as courses on studying and passing tests in Russian, history and law. Work is underway to train migrant workers. However, its scale is such that it has not yet had a noticeable impact on the overall volume of migration.

The key problem for Tajikistan is that if its labor migration is introduced into the legal framework on the territory of Russia, the republic will not be able to maintain its previous volumes in the current conditions. One of the conditions for obtaining a patent is passing tests in Russian, which, according to 2010 data, is owned by only about a quarter of the population of the republic. And the republic is not able to reverse this situation in a short time with the current state of its education system. Meanwhile, Tajikistan's dependence on migrant remittances is critical, and their sharp reduction threatens it with a social explosion.

There can be two ways out of this situation: the reorientation of migration to other countries or the expansion of the labor market in Tajikistan itself by creating industries that are capacious in terms of the use of labor. Dushanbe has not yet achieved great success in the first of these ways, and has not yet made any significant efforts in the second. Meanwhile, it is the development of the national economy that is the most promising way to get away from "migrant dependence", forcing the countries exposed to it to focus on foreign labor markets.