APU on Trial: stopping the transit of Russian gas is a dilemma for Russia

The Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to try to gain a foothold in Kursk region. According to specialized telegram channels, the Sudzha gas measuring station, through which Russian gas is transited through Ukraine, has come under the control of Ukrainian militants. Experts note that if the information is correct, then the Russian authorities are faced with a dilemma: to stop or not to supply.

"To the south-east, the enemy captured the Sudzha gas measuring station, through which gas is transited to Europe through the territory of the so-called Ukraine," the Rybar telegram channel reports. Yuri Podolyaka publishes maps with the same situation.

GIS "Sudzha" is located right at the border and checkpoint and is the only point through which Gazprom transits to Europe via Ukraine. In May 2022, the Ukrainian GTS Operator stopped the work of the Sokhranovka GIS, as it came under the control of the Russian army. The operator announced force majeure, which Gazprom did not recognize and stopped paying for the capacities reserved under the contract through Sokhranovka — a little more than 40 million cubic meters per day out of 110 million cubic meters.

Through Ukraine, Gazprom supplies gas to Slovakia, Czech Republic, Austria and Italy. According to ENTSOG, 9 billion cubic meters were delivered via this route in seven months of the year — slightly less than half of all exports to Europe. The remaining volumes go along the European line of the Turkish Stream.

Neither side has yet announced the transit situation. The Ukrainian GTS Operator indicates that the nomination for transit through Suju is currently 39.5 million cubic meters. According to the company, it was confirmed on August 6 at 22.27. The Slovak operator Eustream publishes data at 13.20 that 10.6 million cubic meters were supplied from Ukraine via the Velke Kapushany point for the gas day on August 7 — it starts at six o'clock in the morning.

Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the FNEB and an expert at the Financial University under the Government of Russia, believes that the Russian authorities are facing a dilemma.

"The issue is of a political nature. If the station is captured in battles, but not damaged, then Gazprom will wait for a political signal from the very top," the expert says.

Russia can stop the transit. At the same time, Igor Yushkov notes, Russia has always criticized Ukraine for stopping the reception of gas via a more southern route, through the GIS "Sokhranovka", since the equipment was not damaged and technically it is possible to supply gas. And despite the fact that now GIS is under the control of the Russian army in the LPR.

"In addition, we see statements in the information space that Russia will soon knock out all enemies from its territory. Therefore, I think the Kremlin will analyze whether it is really possible to liberate all these territories as soon as possible or whether it will drag on. If it is the latter, then Russia may well stop the supply via the gas pipeline through Ukraine," says a leading FNEB analyst.

He notes that stopping will have an effect.

"First, to inflict an economic blow on Ukraine itself in this way. Secondly, to show the Europeans that they should influence Kiev and, in general, this should not be done, otherwise Europe itself will suffer," Igor Yushkov notes.

Earlier, EADaily wrote that Russian gas supplies to Europe increased by 22% in the first seven months of the year. In part, Gazprom had to be a balancing company again and cover the imbalance due to the fact that some of the liquefied gas, mainly from the United States, went to the more attractive Asian market at prices. By betting on LNG, European consumers have become dependent on global flows.

LNG projects in the USA and Qatar will be launched no earlier than 2026. This explains why European officials are discussing the extension of transit through Ukraine, in which the Azerbaijani state-owned company Socar is considered a counterparty instead of Gazprom.

Alexey Grivach, Deputy Director of FNEB, noted that Russian gas allowed Europe not to enter into tough competition with Asian importers. But prices are going up, although not so fast. So far, the market is hardly responding to the uncertain situation in the Kursk region. If yesterday the cost of gas supplies for a month in advance from the TTF exchange was $ 420 per thousand cubic meters, then today by the middle of the day it is $ 426.

As EADaily reported, on the night of August 6, the Ukrainian Armed Forces entered the territory of the Kursk region, where they captured several settlements. The fighting continues. The target of the Kiev regime may be the Kursk NPP, which is located 60 kilometers from the border. Specialized telegram channels write that the militants could have gone 10-15 kilometers deeper.

"The operation to destroy the Armed Forces of Ukraine continues," the Russian Defense Ministry said.

Yuriy Podolyaka writes that, despite the continuation of the fighting, the situation did not develop according to plan for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

"And most importantly, their command put them in a dilemma — what to do next? It is already obvious that there can be no question of any breakthrough to the Kursk NPP. With such losses, even putting all the elite units gathered here into battle, it all looks like one big gamble. But the die is cast for Kiev (and Washington) needs a result," writes Yuri Podolyaka.