To avenge a slap in the face, but not to slide into a big war: how will Iran respond to Israel

Israel is provoking Iran to retaliate, said orientalist, publicist Andrei Ontikov, commenting on the aggravation of the situation in the region.

"The Israelis, specifically Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, are implementing what they were talking about. Netanyahu promised to eliminate the entire top of Hamas, and he is systematically carrying it out. Of course, such actions provoke Iran to take some steps," the expert said on Sputnik radio.

According to him, there is no doubt that the Iranian leadership will respond to the attack on Tehran.

"We have seen a strike on Tehran by Israel — it is clear that it does not confirm this, but everyone understands perfectly well who did it. A few months ago, the Israelis attacked the Iranian consulate in Damascus, and then the Iranians responded with a fairly large-scale attack on Israel. For the first time in decades, another State attacked Israel, using drones and ballistic missiles… The whole point of the situation now is that the Israelis attacked Tehran, killed a guest of the Iranians, who was, importantly, at the inauguration ceremony of the new president. It's hard to imagine a big slap in the face. Accordingly, the Iranians need to respond somehow, and raise rates compared to the previous answer. And at the same time, they need to prevent the region from sliding into a large-scale war. They will be looking for some intermediate option," Ontikov believes.

The Israeli Prime Minister is deliberately aggravating the situation, he believes.

"Benjamin Netanyahu found himself in a very unpleasant situation. In the Gaza Strip, he cannot achieve any significant progress that he could pass off as his victory.… And Netanyahu faces the question of raising rates. There is pressure on him inside Israel — the left is pressing, demanding to make a deal with Hamas to free the hostages, the right is pressing him, demanding to increase military pressure on Hamas and the Lebanese Hezbollah. If he does not react in any way, then he has the prospect of flying out of the prime minister's chair and, most likely, ending up behind bars, because no one canceled the investigation (in Israel) of the Hamas attack on October 7. Therefore, Netanyahu, ideally, needs to get a situation where, as they say, the winners are not judged," Andrei Ontikov believes.

The Israel Defense Forces said it had eliminated the commander of the military wing of the Palestinian Hamas movement, Mohammed Deif, by striking Khan Yunis in the Gaza Strip on July 13. Israel had previously blamed Deif for the attack on October 7, when about 1,200 Israelis and citizens of other states were killed as a result of Hamas actions, and another 251 people were taken hostage.

The day before, it became known about the death in Tehran of the head of the Hamas politburo, Ismail Haniyeh. The residence where he was staying was hit. Hamas blamed Israel and the United States for this. The IDF said it did not comment on reports of Haniyeh's liquidation.

The United States has deployed 12 warships in The Persian Gulf and the eastern Mediterranean amid rising tensions in the region, The Washington Post reported. There is an aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt and six destroyers in the Persian Gulf, three amphibious assault ships and two destroyers in the eastern Mediterranean, the publication said, citing a Pentagon official.

Orientalist Yuri Zinin, a senior researcher at the MGIMO Center for Middle East Studies, said that "the strikes on members of the leadership of Hamas and Hezbollah have become a new step towards further escalation."

"This is quite likely to push those forces that oppose Israel, especially Iran ... especially since the head of the politburo of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Iran. This is, in fact, a big slap in the face for Iran and its leadership, and it caused a very sharp reaction from the highest authorities in Iran. The supreme leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Khamenei, promised Israel the most "severe punishment", declaring his duty to avenge the blood of Haniyeh," Zinin said.

The aggravation of the conflict in this regard is more than likely, he believes.