Azerbaijan political scientist Zardusht Alizade does not expect a large-scale war in Nagorno-Karabakh.
“There have been regular shootings on the contact line since the signing of the Bishkek ceasefire protocol in 1994. Today, we are witnessing a new phase of activity, but I don’t think there will be a large-scale war as Azerbaijan does not need Nagorno-Karabakh, while Armenia does not need a new war. Russia does not need it either. So, it is keeping both parties under control. The only thing our people care for today is the rate of USD,” Alizade says.
Minval.az quotes him as saying that the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents have no more topics to discuss. “They have no common grounds, no mutual respect. Neither of them wants to solve this problem. So, I see no sense in their new meetings. But, on the other hand, the mediators can tell them, ‘Guys, why don’t you just try to imitate activity,’” Alizade says.
He says that de facto for over 20 years Nagorno-Karabakh has not been part of Azerbaijan. “In Bishkek Azerbaijan pledged not to try to take Nagorno-Karabakh back by force. Has anything changed now? Is it like when you wake up and feel some pain? Just imagine that somebody tells all people in Nagorno-Karabakh that they will be deported from Baku deep into the country... I think you can guess what will happen...” says Alizade.
According to him, they in the West perfectly know that they have no resources for being active in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process and that all levers are in the hands of Russia.