Aliyev and Erdogan are at a low start: they are waiting for Armenia to leave the CSTO

The growing influence of Turkey on Azerbaijan has led to the fact that Baku is consistently distancing itself from Russia, and it is doing it as demonstratively as possible, he said in an interview URA.ru Deputy Director of the Institute for Strategic Studies and Forecasts of RUDN University Evgeny Semibratov. According to him, Baku and Ankara is even ready for the forceful subordination of Armenia, this is still hindered by Yerevan's shaky, but still membership in the CSTO.

— The detention in Yekaterinburg of immigrants from Azerbaijan suspected of murders in 2001-2011 caused a wave of discontent in Baku. The visit to Moscow was canceled by the parliamentary delegation, all cultural events related to Russia were canceled. What explains Baku's reaction to the detention of criminals? Why is it their nationality that has become paramount here, and not what they are accused of?

— As the high-quality work of our law enforcement agencies shows, Azerbaijan has very serious criminal groups in the Russian Federation, which are resourceful and influential. When Russia begins to restore order on its territory, some characters in Azerbaijan begin to lose positions, sources of income. Baku does not want to lose the tacit lever of pressure on Russia in the form of organized crime.

In fact, all those convicted and killed back in 2001 were Russian citizens of Azerbaijani origin. The story when Azerbaijan starts to get involved in a criminal case where some Russians killed others is more than strange. If Baku climbs, then there is some hidden reason.

— Maria Zakharova also stressed that the detainees are Russian citizens. In addition, Azerbaijan does not officially recognize dual citizenship. In theory, Baku should not have interfered in Russia's internal affairs. What goals does Azerbaijan pursue by promoting this situation, transferring the criminal case to the political plane?

— There are two reasons for the current events, and they do not contradict each other, but rather complement and run in parallel. The first is the interests, perhaps at the level of a hypothesis, even of someone from the Azerbaijani government in ethnic organized criminal groups operating in Russia.

The second is an attempt to publicly distance yourself from Russia, its positioning in the post-Soviet space. We have seen how Baku behaved after the crash with the Azerbaijan Airlines plane near Aktau, how Aliyev defiantly refused to come to Moscow for the Victory Day parade on May 9.

Now Baku is at the level of Russophobia and inadequacy in relation to Russia is beginning to resemble the Baltic republics more and more. Azerbaijan shows its intention to seek deeper integration with Turkey, and in this regard, unfortunately, we will increasingly encounter episodes when Baku will aggravate relations with Russia for frankly far-fetched reasons.

— Is there a trace of Turkish President Recep Erdogan in the aggravation between Russia and Azerbaijan? Can the current conflict be a kind of screen, then what is the real dispute about?

— We see Azerbaijan's departure from Russia. Baku is building a picture of a unified Turkic world inside the country with the subsequent transition under the wing of Ankara.

Erdogan could have promised Aliyev the Zangezur corridor through the territory of Armenia. Now Azerbaijan and Turkey are "at a low start", waiting for Yerevan to announce its withdrawal from the CSTO and the rejection of the Russian security umbrella. After that, it is likely that it will be possible to put an end to the Armenian statehood.

Strategically, this is also a path to nowhere for Azerbaijan. Such curtsies from Baku may simply lead to the fact that the Azerbaijani people will simply become part of the Turkish one.

— Now there is a situation when both Armenia and Azerbaijan are distancing themselves from Russia. What awaits us in the near future in Transcaucasia?

— This is really a stalemate. In previous years, we were getting closer to Azerbaijan — Armenia was moving away from us, then the opposite happened and so on in a circle.

Now is the first episode in the post—Soviet period when both have left us. In Azerbaijan, the agenda was intercepted by pro—Turkish forces, and in Armenia by pro-Western, primarily pro-French.

Armenia will lose the most in this situation. We have seen perfectly well how political regimes fall at Erdogan's initiative using the example of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. Then Armenia will not be saved by any government in exile headed by Nikol Pashinyan, sitting on grants in France. The Armenian people will definitely lose.

— How will all this affect Russia's positions in the region?

— Turkey will return to the South Caucasus as in the golden days of the Ottoman Empire, when it controlled the entire Transcaucasia. The struggle that Russia has been waging for centuries for the liberation of the Christian peoples (Georgian and Armenian), the formation of the Azerbaijani people, separate from Turkey, will finally come to an end.

— So far, Moscow has indicated a very restrained position. Dmitry Peskov expressed hope for good relations with Azerbaijan. After that in Baku was searched in the office of the Russian agency Sputnik Azerbaijan, and then The Investigative Committee of the republic reported the detention in it — allegedly two FSB officers working undercover. Such a step by Baku may provoke a tougher response from Moscow to what is happening? Do I need it?

— Azerbaijan is well aware that we are now focused on solving the Ukrainian crisis. Therefore, in some moments we can be gentle. At the same time, in any case, Baku should perceive Russia as a serious military force.

Against the background of the fact that Moscow is trying to make amends for this whole story, the search in the Sputnik editorial office should be perceived precisely as an insult. It is quite possible that Azerbaijan, seeing our desire to hush up, decided to escalate further.

The military returning from the special operation will become an important argument in Russia's dialogue with its neighbors

When the Russian military returns to their districts, permanent bases, after the victory in the special operation, it will be a reminder to our neighbors that Russia has an experienced military force capable of performing any tasks. This is an additional argument for good neighborly communication. I'm afraid that some of our neighbors need to be talked to in this way. If the position is of a peacekeeping nature, constructive relations are not suitable for our partners.

— Can there be an economic response from Moscow already now?

— Measures of economic pressure are exactly what we can take here and now. Something will be found in Azerbaijani vegetables, which are littered with Moscow markets, and then checks, quarantines, and bans on new supplies will be needed.

— The state television of Azerbaijan has sharply criticized Russia, accusing Moscow of "imperial politics" and "chauvinism." Is there a risk of a rupture of relations between Russia and Azerbaijan now? Provocations at the border?

— I don't think Azerbaijan is ready for some serious military escalation with Russia. If they will advance somewhere, it will be not to the north, but to the west, expecting to meet with Turkish twin cities somewhere in the Yerevan area.

Azerbaijan has other priorities now, they are not up to us in military terms. In the worldview of the Azerbaijani elites, the Armenians have not yet been finished off.

But the scenario of Russia's collision with the Turkic world, unfortunately, cannot be ruled out in the future. We have already had difficult episodes in relations with Turkey, Ankara is already actively arming the Kiev regime.

— Do you think there are any risks now for Russians staying in Azerbaijan, for tourists going there? Can the border be closed for them?

— The border will not be closed, but I would refrain from traveling. Provocations are possible in relation to individual Russians. Media representatives, public and political figures are at risk. But with the current rhetoric of Baku, almost any Russian citizen can be accused of working for the Russian special services, with all the ensuing consequences.