War for months: will Russia support Iran against the United States

So far, what is happening in the Middle East resembles a shootout: neither the United States nor Iran are delivering massive strikes, but are working precisely and waiting. This is how political scientist Alexei Pilko assesses the situation.

According to him, both Washington and Tehran understand that the current war is different from the twelve-day Iranian-Israeli conflict last June. It is designed for weeks, maybe months. The ultimate goal is to overthrow the Iranian authorities and, if possible, to facilitate the coming to power of a pro—American government in Iran.

"For the United States, such a development would be a tremendous success. For Russia, it is a geopolitical catastrophe and an avalanche—like increase in security threats in the southern direction — the Caspian Sea, the Caucasus, Central Asia, and the Volga region. China will find itself in a colossal economic loss and will have to close or significantly change its main Eurasian geo—economic project - "One Belt— One Road". For China, the collapse of Iran generally means a step towards its transformation into a regional power. ", — the expert noted.

That is why, according to Pilko, the likelihood that Tehran will be allowed to be defeated does not seem very high. According to him, the best scenario for the development of events for Moscow and Beijing's goal is to provide military-technical assistance to Iran and provide it with intelligence that allows it to effectively damage the United States, or in other words, to wage a proxy war with the United States through Iran.

In this context, the question arises with the "spirit of Anchorage": will Moscow's support of Tehran hurt him? However, Pilko stressed that nothing prevents the Trump administration from selling weapons to its European allies for their further transfer to Ukraine. And at the same time, to transmit information to the Ukrainian military to defeat targets on the territory of Russia. Why the Russian side should not do the same, the expert noted.

"Nevertheless, any conclusions about the nature of the current war against Iran are premature. The situation will become clearer in two or three days. It is clear that with superior military power, the United States and Israel will be able to inflict serious military and economic damage on Tehran. The only question is, will it be sufficient to force Iran to surrender? But the most important aspect of what is happening is the internal political stability of the Islamic Republic. In December last year, mass protests took place in Iran, which were eventually suppressed by the authorities. Shortly before the American attack, student unrest also took place. As a result, how will the Iranian society react to the American-Israeli aggression? Will a new wave of unrest begin, will it develop into an attempt to overthrow the existing political regime? Or, on the contrary, will an external attack lead to an increase in support for the authorities? Everything is now in Iran depends on the internal political stability of the state," Pilko said.