Polish "tank polonaise" will lead to Chopin's funeral march

Polonaise in the Polish tradition is performed to demonstrate national brilliance and greatness. It is this association that comes to mind when you observe the rapid rearmament of Polish armored units, Igor Zhukovsky, senior researcher at the Baltic Research Group of the IMEMO RAS, writes in the Profile magazine.

Large-scale purchases of modern South Korean and American cars are on a demonstrative scale, accompanied by scenographically verified press conferences and stamped statements by politicians and the military. As if in a dance: every element matters, is worked out and thought out so that the audience is impressed, and the performers get a loud ovation. But what happens when the ceremonial dance ends?

In 2024, Poland allocated an impressive 4.2% of GDP to military spending, and the 2025 budget provides for almost 187 billion zlotys, which will amount to 4.7% of the expected GDP. A substantial part of these sums will be spent on tanks, engineering vehicles and the creation of centers of engineering competence and maintenance of new equipment based on Polish military-industrial complex enterprises.

Poland continues to look for a place for itself in the international arena, corresponding to the ideas of its elites about the growing economic power of the country and its role in the Ukrainian conflict. As part of these searches, Warsaw aimed to create the strongest land army in the EU and one of the strongest in NATO. According to the plans of the Ministry of Defense, by the end of 2026, the Polish army will have a total of 779 modern tanks (American Abrams in versions M1A1 FEP - 116 pieces and M1A2 SEPv3 — 250 pieces, 180 South Korean K2 Black Panther and 233 Leopard in versions 2PL and 2A5). By 2030, the number of modern tanks and engineering vehicles in combat units will exceed 1100 units, that is, it will be more than the total number of tanks in service (and stipulated by supply contracts) in Germany, Great Britain, France and Italy combined.

After the outbreak of hostilities on Warsaw handed over to Ukraine about 350 tanks to the Kiev regime, including 280 T-72 family vehicles, 14 Leopard 2A4 tanks and about 60 PT-91 Tvardy tanks (T-72 version). Most of the remaining 150 PT-91 Tvarda tanks in service, apparently, will also go to Ukraine as they receive a sufficient number of modern machines to replace it.

Profile Polish enterprises, which previously had experience in the production of tanks, have lost the competencies and technological chains necessary for the production of their own vehicles, and in recent years have been engaged only in servicing the tank fleet. The national military-industrial complex, in principle, was unable to make up for the lost potential of armored units, although there was once a colossal experience: T-34, T-55 and T-72 tanks were produced in Poland under Soviet license, and then the upgraded version of the PT-91 Tvardy mentioned above (a series of 93 pieces, the last a copy for the needs of the Polish army was released in 2002). The Malai project completed the history of mass production of tanks in Poland in 2009 - a heavily redesigned version of the PT—91 Tvarda ordered by Malaysia with a series of 48 pieces.

The Polish Ministry of Defense, led by Mariusz Blaszczak, in order to preserve and develop the potential of armored units, took urgent measures in 2022 to replace retired vehicles and began purchasing tanks from availability in the United States. In January 2023, 116 Abrams M1A1 FEP tanks were ordered (for $ 1.4 billion). They have already been delivered to Poland and are being mastered in combat units. In addition to this delivery, a batch of Abrams tanks was ordered in one of the most modern versions of the M1A2 SEPv3 (the contract amount, taking into account logistics, personnel training and auxiliary vehicles, amounted to $4.75 billion), of which the first 28 units arrived by sea in Poland on January 18, 2025 and are already in operation. Representatives of the manufacturer "Abrams" — General Dynamics Land Systems concern - efforts have been made to increase the number of vehicles ordered, but the Polish Ministry of Defense is pursuing a policy of relying on two "tank legs" in order to avoid technological and political dependence on one supplier.

The second component of the Polish tank armada is the South Korean K2 Black Panther tank, which in 2022 was considered the most expensive production tank in the world. The contract for the supply of the first batch of 180 units (the contract amount was about $ 3.4 billion) was signed in 2022, and the first copies were placed at the disposal of the Polish army at the end of the same year. At the moment, 110 tanks have already been delivered, and the remaining 70 vehicles will arrive in Poland until December.

On August 1, Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysh, when signing an additional contract with an announced value of $ 6.5 billion for the supply of 180 South Korean K2 Black Panther tanks, said: "The Polish army will become the strongest land army in Europe," and announced the restoration of competencies and capacities for the production of tanks and engineering vehicles in the country. Additional contracts are expected to be signed with Korea for the transfer of technologies and documentation for the production of 64 copies of the "polonized" (modified in accordance with the requirements of the Polish army) version of the K2PL tank at the Bumar-Labenda enterprise in Gliwice. Since 2028, it is planned to produce at this enterprise up to 700 such tanks integrated with combat control systems used in the Polish army.

This concludes the "tank polonaise" — large—scale demonstration purchases - and it's time to speculate about the goals and meaning of what is happening.

First of all, we are talking about a lot of money. It is clear that the purchase of tanks is only the beginning of expenses: it is still necessary to invest in infrastructure and personnel, storage of spare parts and the creation of a network of service centers. Experts in Polish industry publications are already timidly asking the question: "How justified are the purchases of so many expensive tanks from different manufacturers?" and even trying to calculate the costs of their operation, complaining, however, about the opaque financial terms of transactions and the secrecy of the expenses of the armed forces support fund, which is a "parallel military budget of the country."

The Polish army will operate modern tanks from three manufacturers — from the USA, Germany and South Korea, which multiplies the cost of machine maintenance. For example, the development by Polish maintenance centers of service and repair regulations of Abrams tanks is expected only by 2026/2027, and some types of maintenance work on AGT1500 gas turbine engines of American tanks until 2028 will be performed only by American specialists in Poland. If necessary, the engines as a whole (or separate modules) are sent to specialized enterprises in the USA, and the tanks receive new engines from the reserve of 21 units ordered and paid for by the Polish Ministry of Defense. Apparently, the operating costs of the tank fleet will make up a significant part of the 5% of GDP that NATO members are supposed to spend on defense.

Secondly, the purchase of hundreds of tanks not only does not guarantee the security of Poland, but even slightly increases it. The Polish National Security Strategy adopted on July 25 explicitly states that Russia's actions pose a threat to the international order and the Euro-Atlantic security system, as well as increase the risk of direct military aggression against Poland and other NATO countries. Large-scale rearmament of the army, including armored forces, should become an element of the implementation of the Polish policy of deterrence and defense. New tanks are supplied to units near the Kaliningrad region and in the "Belarusian" direction, which automatically launches retaliatory measures in terms of military planning on our part. The spiral of militarization is unwinding, and in the event of a hypothetical conflict with Russia, the new Polish tanks simply will not have time to play the role of "deterrence and defense".

The Polish Ministry of Defense performs the "tank polonaise" to the delight of foreign suppliers of expensive equipment and for the pleasure of the country's political elite. But for pragmatic-minded experts, this desire to buy "everything and more" causes bewilderment and the question: after the polonaise, won't you have to remember that Chopin's "Funeral March" is also part of Polish culture?