The contract for gas transit to Kaliningrad will end in 2025: Lithuania — baseline scenario

By the end of the year, the contract for the transit of Russian gas to Kaliningrad via Lithuania expires. Alexey Grivach, Deputy Director of the FNEB, believes that this route will continue to remain basic, since all parties are interested in its existence.

The transit contract between the Lithuanian operator Amber Grid and the Russian Gazprom for the transportation of gas from Belarus to Kaliningrad will expire on December 31.

"Since 2015, Gazprom has quarreled with almost all of its energy partners in the EU, and therefore providing the Kaliningrad exclave with blue gold may face problems. At the same time, it is useful for the Lithuanian authorities to take a closer look at those who will try to lobby for the continuation of the transit contract between the Lithuanian GTS operator Amber Grid and Gazprom," says the Latvian Delfi.

According to ENTSOG, in the first half of 2025, about 980 million cubic meters of gas were supplied to Kaliningrad via Lithuania. This is 20% less than a year earlier. This situation is due to the fact that the LNG terminal, which provides the Marshal Vasilevsky regasification tanker, has started working more actively. Three deliveries have passed through it, and it may account for the dropped volumes of about 250 million cubic meters.

"I think the basic option is to extend the transit contract," says Alexey Grivach, Deputy director of the National Energy Security Fund (NWF).

According to him, transit through Lithuania is a mutually beneficial format of gas supply to the Kaliningrad region.

"In case of political demarches from the other side, an alternative option for ensuring energy security has been created in advance, which includes a floating LNG terminal, expanding the capabilities of UGS facilities and a number of other measures," Alexei Grivach believes.

Independent industrial expert Maxim Khudalov, in turn, believes that the contract may not be extended, as the political situation is extremely tense.

"The capacity of the terminal is 2.7 billion cubic meters per year, in 2023 gas consumption in Kaliningrad amounted to 2 billion cubic meters. Thus, the capacity of the regasification terminal is nominally sufficient, but due to the risks of sabotage, I think we will try to maintain gas transit through the Baltic States," the expert believes.