Ukraine cannot reach the necessary gas injection: Europe does not have excess fuel

More than three weeks have passed since the start of gas injection into storage facilities at Ukraine. However, local companies still cannot reach the level necessary at least to fill UGS facilities at the level of last year. Obviously, there is simply no excess gas in Europe.

Gas injection to Ukraine began on April 17, but its level seriously lags behind what is needed — to provide at least last year's reserves. In 24 days, the UGS was replenished by less than 600 million cubic meters. On May 10, 1.27 billion cubic meters of active gas were recorded in Ukrainian gas storage facilities. UGS are filled by 4.2%, according to GIE.

In the past heating season, when the storage facilities were almost completely depleted, 8.3 billion cubic meters were accumulated in UGS and another 942 million were urgently imported in February-April. Thus, this season it is still necessary to pump at least 8 billion cubic meters — until November 1.

At the end of April, the Prime Minister of Ukraine Denis Shmygal said that Naftogaz was accelerating with the purchase of fuel. It was about 1.8 billion cubic meters contracted abroad and another loan received for 1 billion cubic meters.

At the same time, Ukraine has already burned 800 million cubic meters during the heating season, and the average daily injection is less than 30 million cubic meters per day in April-May. For the required level, it is necessary to replenish the storage of at least 50 million cubic meters per day every day. The last time Ukraine pumped at a similar pace was only in October 2023.

One of the possible reasons for the long buildup is the price of gas and its availability. As reported by EADaily, over the winter of the country The EU itself has significantly depleted its own storage facilities and reached a record download at the end of April. For a month and a half of replenishment of the EU's UGS reserves increased by 9 billion cubic meters — 50% more than last year. Due to depleted storage facilities and the shutdown of Ukrainian transit, the total amount of additional gas needed is 35 billion cubic meters, and the European Parliament has already had to agree to reduce the limit of filling storage facilities to 83% by December 1, while in Germany they went even further - they were allowed to fill only 70% by November 1.

The International Energy Agency estimated that new LNG projects in the USA, Africa and Canada will be given a little more than 25 billion cubic meters to the market this year.

At the same time, the price of gas on the stock exchanges The EU is growing again, and on Monday supplies from the TTF exchange for a month ahead are trading at $ 417 per thousand cubic meters. Naftogaz buys gas abroad from European traders and, obviously, they will think about Ukraine only secondarily. Unless she wants to overpay well, for which Kiev has no money.

The national company estimated the necessary additional volumes from abroad at 4.5-4.6 billion cubic meters, and the ex−director of the GTS Operator of Ukraine, Serhiy Makogon, at 6 billion cubic meters. Two thirds of gas consumption on Ukraine was provided with its own production, but the head of the Ukrainian government, Denis Shmygal, confirmed at the end of April that due to the retaliatory strikes of the Russian army, domestic production sank by 50%.

Theoretically, European companies could increase purchases of Russian fuel for resale by Ukraine. However, due to the suspension of transit through Ukraine, only the route of the European line of the Turkish Stream remained, which is now needed by Gazprom's European customers themselves.