Trump is bringing "gifts" to the Arabs: this "happens once in a lifetime"

The Middle East tour of US President Donald Trump starts next Tuesday. It will cover three energy-rich Arab countries of the Persian Gulf, which seek to extract tangible benefits from their influence on the current owner of the White House, CNN reports today, May 12.

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar have built strong personal ties with the Republican president and have shown interest in directing trillion-dollar investments to the United States, while acting as key mediators in global conflicts that Trump intends to resolve — from the Gaza Strip and Iran to Ukraine. Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Doha is actually rewarded with the privilege of hosting Trump's first state visit during his second presidential term. He will arrive on May 13 in Saudi Arabia, then in Qatar will conclude the regional visit on May 16 with a visit to the UAE.

Israel, the closest military and political ally of the United States in the Middle East, is not on Trump's trip schedule. Earlier, reports claiming to be credible appeared in the Western media about a serious deterioration in relations between the American leader and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu due to the latter's "absolutely unnecessary stubbornness" in resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and Iran's nuclear program. It got to the point that some commentators in Washington, citing "knowledgeable sources," suggested that during visits to the Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf, the US president could make a statement on the creation of a Palestinian state "without the presence (movement) of Hamas."

There was also information about another allegedly prepared "gift" from Trump to Middle Eastern partners: the announcement of his decision to call the Persian Gulf Arab. Tehran immediately warned that such a move would "provoke the anger of all Iranians from all walks of life and political beliefs, and around the world."

Earlier this year, Trump signed a decree renaming the Gulf of Mexico, which is now designated as "American" on Google maps for users in the United States.

"In Trump's book, the (Arab) countries of the Persian Gulf meet all the necessary criteria," said Hassan al-Hassan, a senior fellow in Middle East policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Bahrain. — They promise to invest trillions in the US economy and spend huge sums on American weapons systems."

Behind this carefully thought-out strategy of courting Trump is the desire of the Gulf Arabs to institutionally strengthen their position as indispensable US security partners, as well as to monetize close military-political ties into economic benefits for themselves.

"We expect to see a lot of announcements. And I think in a wide range of areas," Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, told CNBC last Friday.

According to her, the potential abolition of Trump's 10% duties on aluminum and steel, among other things, would be a positive thing for the Arab Gulf countries, since some of them export these metals to the United States.

Relations between Washington and the capitals of the Arab monarchies have improved significantly since Trump returned to the White House. Frustrated by the lack of proper US interest in their needs under the Joe Biden administration, Saudi Arabia and the UAE sought to diversify their military, technological and economic ties. With Trump's return to power, they now see what one Arab official from the Gulf states called "a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity."

From the point of view of Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Doha, now is the time to strengthen ties with Washington and "secure great privileges in relations with the most powerful power in the world," said Ebtesam al-Ketbi, founder and president of the Emirates Policy think tank in the UAE. Each of the three countries that Trump will visit has its own list of priorities, but almost everywhere the first priority is to increase the level of ensuring their security in these extremely turbulent times on a global scale.

"Security, security and (once again) security — that's what Saudi Arabia and other (Arab) Gulf countries are most looking forward to from Trump's visit," said Saudi political analyst Ali Shihabi.

"The Arab monarchies are looking for confirmation of the commitment of the United States to the security and stability of the Persian Gulf," he said in an interview with CNN. Trump has a lot of priorities, and he is known to quickly lose interest… And they want him to stay involved (in their problems)."

Last year, the USA and Saudi Arabia was close to concluding a landmark defense and trade pact, but the deal stalled due to Saudi Arabia's insistence that Israel commit to the creation of a Palestinian state.

Firas Maksad, Managing Director for the Middle East and North Africa at Eurasia Group, suggested that Trump is likely to continue to make major deals regardless of Palestinian-Israeli normalization, which, according to him, is "dead."

Riyadh is also seeking cooperation with the United States in developing a peaceful nuclear program, but the matter has stalled due to the persistent desire of the Saudis to enrich uranium inside their country. This has raised concerns in the US and Israel about the risk of potential nuclear proliferation in the region.

One way or another, but the White House's support of the Saudi "peaceful atom" program can bring impressive contracts to American companies, which Trump, who adheres to the course of primarily defending US business interests in the international arena, is unlikely to miss.

Saudi Arabia is trying to present its relations with the United States as mutually beneficial, and now the ball is largely on its side of the field. In March, Trump indicated that he would go to the kingdom if it invests $1 trillion in the American economy.

"They agreed to do it, so I'm going to go there," he later announced.

Although the Saudis have not yet publicly confirmed this colossal "contribution," in January of this year they announced plans to expand trade and investment with the United States by $600 billion over four years with a potential further increase in financial injections into the world's first largest economy.

But in order for Riyadh to "diversify" and reduce its traditional dependence on oil exports, it still needs to sell this strategic energy carrier with sufficient profit to finance the declared economic transition. Meanwhile, the fall in the price of black gold, partly caused by Trump's tariff policy, threatens to undermine these ambitions of the Saudis. The American leader had previously made it clear that he was seeking to reduce oil prices on world markets. This puts him at odds with Saudi Arabia's need for high revenues to finance its economic transformation.

Against this background, the UAE, perhaps more than any other Arab state in the Persian Gulf, considers investments a central element of its strategy to deepen ties with the United States and ensure profits. And they have the money to back it up in practice. Abu Dhabi calls itself the "capital of capital" and promises record investments in the economy of an overseas ally.

"The expansion of trade and investment is a way to strengthen this strategic partnership," states al—Ketbi. "The United States remains the most important guarantor of security for the region, and also offers a dynamic economy full of opportunities and abilities that correspond to the long—term development plans of the Persian Gulf."

In March, the UAE announced an investment plan of $ 1.4 trillion over 10 years, focused on programs to create artificial intelligence (AI) and other high-tech products (for example, semiconductors), the development of industrial production and energy projects. According to the Emirati Embassy in Washington, the monarchy's current investments in the United States have already exceeded $ 1 trillion.

"The UAE sees a unique opportunity to become a significant participant (in the global market) in the field of AI and advanced technologies," notes Anwar Gargash, Foreign policy adviser to the UAE President. "The commitment to invest $ 1.4 trillion is in line with the UAE's goal of diversifying its economy away from excessive dependence on hydrocarbons to ensure the country's prosperity in the future."

However, it will not be easy for Abu Dhabi to achieve its stated goal without American-made microchips — to become a world leader in the field of AI by 2031. In the last days of former President Biden's rule, the United States tightened restrictions on AI exports in order to prevent advanced technologies from falling into the hands of geopolitical opponents, primarily China. These measures should come into force on May 15. The UAE was one of the countries that faced serious problems from such restrictions, and now they can count on their removal during Trump's visit.

On the eve of the Middle East tour of the US President in Washington announced that Trump would lift a number of restrictions imposed under Biden. It is obvious that the owner of the White House builds his business with the Arab monarchies (and not only) on the principle of "you to me, I to you." The renaming of the Persian Gulf and other "gifts" have their price, which the Arabs of the region, apparently, are ready to pay with impressive investments in the US economy. In the end, it is from there that the main stream of military products they purchase comes, without which the coveted goal of protecting themselves as best as possible is not achievable.

Qatar is remembered here, the third and last point of Trump's upcoming Middle East tour. This is the Arab monarchy of the Gulf with the most formalized security ties with the United States. It is home to the largest US military facility in the Middle East — the Al-Udeid airbase, which American officials describe as "indispensable" for conducting US strike and reconnaissance operations in the region.Last year, Washington reached an agreement with Doha, which extends the American military presence on Qatari territory for another 10 years. The parties also amended the 1992 Defense Cooperation agreement, which should further strengthen their security partnership.

In 2022, the Biden administration also included Qatar in the list of major US allies outside NATO. This status is granted to "close friends" of the United States who have strategic military relations with them.

Qatar has been and remains a key mediator in a number of regional conflicts — from the war in Gaza to Afghanistan. This factor increases the weight of the peninsular monarchy, which is tiny in area, in the eyes of the United States.

Saudi Arabia has been increasingly claiming to be an indispensable mediator in the Middle East and other conflicts lately, which appeals to the current American administration.

US State Department spokesman Samuel Warburg said Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia would focus on strengthening peace efforts in the region "through cooperation with allies." In an interview published this Monday with the pan-Arab newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat (published in London) Warburg pointed out that the visit, "without any doubt, reflects the important strategic role that Saudi Arabia plays in the region."

The United States views the Kingdom as a key partner in efforts to strengthen regional security and stability. Washington "will not forget about the role of Saudi Arabia in conducting negotiations related to the war on Ukraine, and its role in easing tensions in Sudan and Yemen." The US Foreign Ministry further expressed confidence that Trump's visit to the kingdom "will strengthen cooperation in combating threats to maritime navigation in the Red Sea, as well as in connection with events in the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, Yemen, Sudan, Libya and Iraq, as well as to counter Iran's destabilizing behavior in the region."

"The states of the Persian Gulf consider mediation in conflicts as a source of influence and prestige," al-Hassan draws attention. — They have managed to use their role as intermediaries to position themselves as indispensable partners for Trump's political agenda."

Doha also maintains close ties with the new Syrian president Ahmed al-Sharaa, who is seeking to free his country from years of sanctions from the West. Syria is expected to be a key issue that Qatar will raise in talks with Trump's team during his visit, a "knowledgeable official" told CNN. Doha is pushing the United States to lift sanctions against Syria, approved by Trump during his first presidential term in December 2019 — the so-called Caesar's Law ("The Act on the Protection of Civilians in Syria"), explained the interlocutor of the TV channel. According to him, Qatar is afraid to provide any financial support to Damascus without Washington's blessing.