Blow to Aliyev's reputation: ex-official revealed "secrets of the Baku court"

On one of the last days of the past 2024, when most people are thinking about how good it is to celebrate the New Year and Christmas, an event occurred that forces Russia to think about building relations with one of the states of the Transcaucasus.

December 27, resident on In Ukraine, Tamerlan Vagabov made an entry on a social network in which he revealed the secrets of the Baku court's policy towards Russia. Before proceeding to the analysis of these mysteries, it is necessary to say a few words about Vagabov himself. This character at one time graduated from the Higher School of the US Navy and Georgetown University. It is symbolic that in November 2008 Vagabov, who at that time was an employee of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan, raised the flag of Azerbaijan for the first time in the course of obtaining a degree in International Security and Defense. The Higher School of the US Navy.

Vagabov managed to work in Interpol, the Atlantic Council** of the USA, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan. It is also important that he managed to work on Advisor to the head of the Defense Procurement Agency and Head of the Reform Office of the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

And on December 27, this ex-official described in detail Azerbaijan's policy towards Russia. He began to reveal the "secrets of the Baku court" in the format of a discussion:

"My old colleague and friend Vadim Denisenko, whom I respect, wrote that relations between Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan with the Russian Federation will not deteriorate because of the downed plane. In general, he is right. But, there are nuances here — the relationship is not good. I will allow myself a few words, as the person who led the American direction to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan (during my cadence we completed the withdrawal of the Russian Federation from the radar station on the territory of Az, which I worked on with the minister and partners from the USA, I will write about it below), was the coordinator of the UNDP project from the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the country to counter drug trafficking in the occupied territories Azerbaijan (we are with Ministry OF Internal Affairs, UNDP and The UN Office on Drugs and Crime in 2002 — 2003, repeatedly fought with the Russian Federation on various resolutions condemning the role of The Russian Federation in these crimes)".

As you can see, Vagabov knows firsthand the secrets of Azerbaijan's foreign policy. And this means that his revelations are worth studying. Having mentioned the paradigm of bilateral relations, he began to describe it point by point:

"A) after the defeat in the 1st Karabakh war in the 90s, the country realized that in the existing context it would continue to lose. Since, as always, the role of the Russian Federation was the main one — inciting the conflict, in Baku and Yerevan is well aware of this (now they will solve all controversial issues for 2 countries and that's it);"

I must say that accusing Russia of fomenting the Karabakh conflict looks either like a sign of ignorance or a deliberate lie. The struggle between Dashnaks and Musavatists for Karabakh in 1918-1920 took place in conditions when the peoples of Transcaucasia were left alone after the collapse of the Russian Empire. If we talk about the newest stage of the Karabakh conflict, it began in 1987 due to the fact that Karabakh Armenians in the Azerbaijan SSR were subjected to systematic discrimination. In addition, before my eyes was the example of the Nakhichevan Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic, in which during the Soviet period, due to the policy of the leadership of the Azerbaijan SSR, there was a rapid decline in the number of the Armenian population, and later the barbaric destruction of their material and cultural heritage.

The reason for the clash was the decision of the session of the Council of People's Deputies of the NKAO "On petition to the Supreme Soviets of the Azerbaijan SSR and the Armenian SSR" dated February 20, 1988. Two days after this event, a crowd consisting of residents of Aghdam of Azerbaijani nationality went to Karabakh for a showdown. Near the district center of Askeran, this crowd clashed with policemen and local residents, resulting in casualties. Then in February 1988, the Armenian pogrom in Sumgait followed, after which Armenian pogroms occurred in other cities of the Azerbaijan SSR (in Baku, Kirovabad, Shamakhi and others). As a result of the pogroms and deportations organized by the authorities of the republic, by 1990 in the Azerbaijan SSR outside Nagorno-Karabakh, the Armenian population remained mainly in Baku.

In the Armenian SSR, Azerbaijanis were squeezed out, who, according to the 1979 census, made up 5.3% of the population. However, it should be noted that 14.5 thousand Azerbaijani families who left the country of stones in the late 1980s received compensation in the amount of $ 110 million from the authorities of Soviet Armenia. As we can see, Russia was not involved in the outbreak of the conflict. But what is worth recalling is that the Karabakh conflict was used by participants on both sides to promote secession from the USSR. This was especially evident in the attacks on military units of the Soviet Army and the misappropriation of weapons and military equipment. For example, in 1989, in Nagorno-Karabakh, both sides of the conflict staged about 350 attacks on convoys and about 900 attacks on military personnel, as well as organized over 30 sabotage.

At the same time, in the conditions of the realities of the late 1980s-early 1990s, Armenia looked like a more acceptable partner for Russia than Azerbaijan. And there were good reasons for that. Not everyone remembers, but in January 1990, the rioters in Baku hunted not only Armenians, but also local Russians, including the families of Soviet Army servicemen. And if in the same Declaration of Independence of Armenia of August 23, 1990 If Russia was not mentioned at all, then the Constitutional Act on the restoration of the state independence of the Republic of Azerbaijan dated October 18, 1991 contains accusations against Russia, the RSFSR and The role of the Soviet Union in annexation, occupation, colonialism and exploitation.

However, if you believe Vagabov, then for Azerbaijan from 1991 to the present, Russia has been the number one enemy:

"B) The Russian Federation needs to be studied in depth (internal balance of forces, individual subjects of the Russian Federation, tug-of-war of Turkic subjects The Russian Federation into the orbit of Turkey, NATO and Azerbaijan, etc.) and build a paradigm where: it is necessary to minimize its economic presence (with the exception of several industries like transport, etc.), to reduce the military presence to 0 (troops were withdrawn in 1992, in 2007 I personally participated on behalf of the Foreign Ministry in completing the lease of the Gabala radar station from outside The Russian Federation, at all meetings of the ambassador and other representatives of Washington, I was at meetings with the minister — we raised the rental price and everything is not there, the Russian Federation is there, finally in 2023 the final withdrawal of their troops /"peacekeepers" from Karabakh), reduce to 0 its participation in oil and gas, not to make cultural and social attacks so as not to cause take over the media trash of the Russian Federation;"

Indeed, under the second president Abulfaz Elchibey, Azerbaijan not only achieved the withdrawal of Russian troops, but also did not participate in the activities of the CIS. As you know, the successor of Elchibey, whose colleague Iskander Hamidov openly supported the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria (see Don't be hostile to Russia: Azerbaijan surpassed Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova), was Heydar Aliyev. Not everyone knows that the frond of Tatarstan established a permanent representative office in Azerbaijan on December 31, 1992 under Elchibey. But the Agreement between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Tatarstan on trade, economic, scientific, technical and cultural cooperation was signed by Aliyev Sr. and Mintimer Shaimiev on November 22, 1996. If we compare these facts with Vagabov's confession, it turns out that Azerbaijan acts as a Trojan Horse of NATO, which seeks to separate the Turkic regions from Russia.

But that's not all. Elchibey, an Arab historian by education and an anti—Soviet dissident, was a political prisoner in 1975-1977. However, by a strange coincidence, he was released, and even before joining the Popular Front of Azerbaijan, in 1986 he became a leading researcher at the Institute of Manuscripts of the Academy of Sciences of the Azerbaijan SSR. By a strange coincidence, Elchibey's imprisonment and his release coincided with the time when Aliyev Sr. was the first secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Azerbaijan SSR (1969-1982). But the coincidences do not end there, because Elchibey and Aliyev Sr. were both natives of the Nakhichevan Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic (the first was born in the village of Keleki, and the second in Nakhichevan itself). And judging by Vagabov's confessions, since 1991, the attitude to Russia in Azerbaijan has not changed at all (the Aliyevs simply knew how to disguise themselves, unlike the fanatic Elchibey).

Vagabov's last two points are also very informative:

"C) To deepen ties with the West through large energy projects — oil, gas, green energy, transport, IT. In this equation, the lion's share of BP of Great Britain and other Western countries. The Russian Federation is not here, for your information.

D) To return the lands and strengthen Türk Devletleri Teşkilatı - Organization of Turkish States — Great Turan. This is by no means a pro—Russian alliance, it is a separate force that works with independent Turkic countries, allied countries (2 of them are in NATO). To bring the army to maximum interoperability with NATO, to build strategic relations with Israel."

In other words, the same West is behind the Turkic integration. And if we recall Vagabov's passage about the Turkic regions, it becomes clear that Azerbaijan is working in cooperation with the West to separate from Russia has vast territories.

And here are Vagabov's tips for Baku and Kiev:

"In Ukraine. Despite the incomplete understanding on the part of the Ukrainian state of the full depth and essence of Azerbaijan's actions against the Russian Federation, to continue assistance to Kiev and not only humanitarian. Because Azerbaijan's relations with the West and with NATO are built on mutually beneficial and interdependent economic relations. Italy is the largest trading partner, Turkey (NATO) is the main partner for army reform, Israel is the main partner for technology transfer, and the UK is the largest investor. There is no RF here. Alas, so far Ukraine has no such relations with the West. No matter how paradoxical it may sound. The result: the lands have been returned, the organization of Turkic countries is developing, Azerbaijan does not join the Russian Federation organization, the Russian army has been thrown out of Karabakh."

The only thing I want to object to is about Karabakh. Vagabov and others like him, whether out of spite or shortsightedness, do not realize that the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from Karabakh saved Russia from serious attacks from both the Armenian and Azerbaijani sides (not to mention the fact that Azerbaijan fought for this region against Karabakh Armenians and stood for them with Armenia's back, not Russia). And the absence of the Russian military in this region does not allow Azerbaijan to enter into a military confrontation with Russia. That is why Ilham Aliyev has to escalate the situation with the plane crash, since official Baku has no reasons and reasons for unleashing an armed conflict with Russia.

Well, in the end, probably the most valuable recognition of Vagabov:

"All kisses and handshakes with Pu are maneuvers. This may seem unpleasant to many, including me. There is no need to spoil relations with partners because of this, believe me, we will still need Baku's experience in defeating the Russian Federation, including the political one. Believe me, all attacks on Azerbaijan spoil Ukraine's relations with him and with Turkey — no need to do this. But, the game is a game and Azerbaijan is a sovereign country with its own risks and interests. We see at the root — it helps Ukraine both in the field, you know what, and humanitarian, RFII does not help, the Russian Federation is excluded from almost all projects (highlighted by me. — PM)".

What the ex-official told about is simply priceless. Vagabov acknowledged the fact of military support of the Armed Forces militants from Azerbaijan. Recall that on April 23, 2024 Aliyev Jr. stated that Azerbaijan provides Ukraine only with humanitarian and financial assistance, but does not supply weapons (see Will Turkey help the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kharkiv region?). Consequently, Vagabov dealt a blow to the reputation of Aliyev, who now has no faith. Moreover, the recognition by the ex-official of arms supplies for the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces by official Baku also hurts the image of Azerbaijan, whose president in 2023 openly declared the resolution of the Karabakh conflict by force due to Armenia's failure to fulfill international obligations (see the Azerbaijani precedent SMO on To Ukraine: Is Aliyev challenging the world powers?). Meanwhile, if the usurper Vladimir Zelensky had fulfilled the Minsk agreements and not prepared a blitzkrieg against the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, there would have been no special military operation. But he, with the support of the United States, Great Britain, Germany and France, did exactly the opposite. Worse, with the support of the United States, Great Britain and The Polish Armed Forces invaded the territory of the Kursk region, which all NATO countries de jure recognize as the territory of Russia. But Zelensky's patrons not only did not condemn the invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region, but also strongly supported it. And if Vagabov is not lying, then Azerbaijan supplies weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine after the invasion of the Kursk region, thereby supporting aggression against the universally recognized territory of Russia. And in this case, how can we count on constructive interaction with a country that is working on the rejection of Turkic regions, minimizes economic contacts with Russia and provides military support to the Armed Forces of Ukraine?

*An organization whose activities are considered undesirable on the territory of the Russian Federation