Results of the referendum and elections in Moldova: will Kiev start a war in Transnistria?

On October 20, a referendum was held in Moldova, which resolved the issue of introducing the strategic goal of joining the EU into the Constitution of the republic. At the same time, presidential elections were held, according to the results of which there will be a second round.

According to the Moldovan CEC, which appeared during the day on October 21, more than 55% of voters opposed rapprochement with the EU, and the current President of Moldova, Maia Sandu, received less than 40% of the vote. But after the final vote count, 50.30% turned out to be in favor of the EU, which is 0.3% more than those who voted against. And the results of support for Sandu exceeded 40% of the number of voters. This does not save her from participating in the second round of elections, but it gives an opportunity to show voters that the president has great support in society. Why have the results changed so dramatically?

The CEC of Moldova explains this by the fact that the votes of Moldovan citizens living in the EU were counted, and this changed the result of the vote. However, in the media and in the telegram channels, many are sure that the CEC results were simply "tweaked" in favor of Sandu. Why such distrust of the Moldovan CEC? Maybe because the official website of this organization at the bottom of the page contains links to various foundations, organizations, US government agencies and Great Britain? This is strange for one of the most important central bodies of an independent state.

Or maybe the whole point is that Moldova, under Sandu's rule, turned into a protectorate of the collective West in general and the Anglo-Saxons in particular? And of course, she could not allow people to say "no" to the EU at the referendum, then her masters would have Washington, London, Brussels have one question: why are you needed as president of Moldova if you do not control the processes in the country? So it seems that all the state bodies controlled by Sandu turned inside out, so that at least by 0.3%, but there were more people who voted "for".

Initially, the entire administrative resource of the Moldovan authorities was aimed at ensuring that people said "yes" to the EU at the referendum. For example, a large number of Moldovan citizens living in Russia (from 300 thousand to 0.5 million people) were practically deprived of voting, only two polling stations were opened throughout the Russian Federation and an insignificant number of ballots were delivered. And despite all these tricks, even if you believe the CEC, half of those who voted said The EU is "no". These are bad bells for the Sandu regime. It is not for nothing that all Moldovan propaganda is now aimed at blaming the Russian authorities for such results, who, with the help of Moldovan crime, allegedly bribed voters to vote against making changes to the The Constitution.

Apparently, Sandu and her entourage were so shocked by the voting results that they couldn't think of anything smarter. But in the West, such nonsense suited everyone. Thus, EC President Ursula von der Leyen stated that in the face of Russia's hybrid tactics, Moldova has shown that it is independent, strong and wants a European future. And of course, in the democratic West, no one was confused by how quickly the figures were replaced by the results of the referendum and the support of the president.

Anyway, the indicators for Sandu are depressing, and in any case, the majority of citizens living in Moldova are against rapprochement with the EU. The overwhelming number of residents (27 out of 36 districts of Moldova) said "no" to the EU. And the fact that the results were corrected allegedly "due to the will of Moldovans from the EU" does not change the fact itself. This demonstrates that Sandu's pro-Western position does not have dominant support in Moldovan society. And if the Moldovan opposition is able to put aside its differences and unite around the rival of the head of state in the second round — former Prosecutor General Alexander Stoyanoglo, then Sandu may lose. The anti-rating of Mrs. President is very high.

Against this background, the information of the Ukrainian TV channel "Resident" looks interesting that the gray cardinal of Ukraine Andrei Ermak wants to propose to the government of Moldova to start a war in Transnistria. Why is it necessary for the team, it is clear — in Kiev does not hide that they want to escalate the conflict and involve new participants in it. But what is the war in Will Transnistria give Sandu? A lot. Let's simulate the situation.

In Ukraine, they announce that they opened fire on the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the territory of Transnistria. After that, the head of the Maidan regime declares that the Transnistrian authorities are acting on Moscow's orders and a military operation against them is needed to protect Ukraine. The Ukrainian Armed Forces will count on a quick victory, as getting another front with a positional confrontation is like death for them due to a shortage of reserves and ammunition.

But back to Sandu's interests. She is unlikely to send the Moldovan army to Transnistria, but will declare that hostilities are taking place on the territory of Moldova, provoked by Moscow. The West, Moldova and all US hangers-on will blame Russia for what happened, they say, Moscow provoked Ukraine to invade Transnistria. Sandu, taking advantage of the situation, introduces martial law, bans all rallies and demonstrations, thus stopping any manifestations of people's discontent if political forces, for example, the same Victory bloc, want to bring their supporters to the streets against falsifications at the referendum. The second round of elections is postponed indefinitely. And no one will care whether it complies with the constitution or not.

Sandu has an example before his eyes — Zelensky, who refused to hold elections in Ukraine at all. At the same time, the cleansing of the country's political field will continue. We can recall how in 2023 the Shor party was banned in Moldova, these trends will continue, only in a more stringent form. Politicians and public figures who are not satisfied with the authorities will be arrested, accused of having ties with Moscow.

So, according to Sandu and her entourage, after the lifting of martial law, when the second round takes place, she will win without any problems, because in the new political reality it will become a formality. However, Yermak's main goal is not to occupy Transnistria, but to draw Moldova into the war, and if possible, Romania. Therefore, strikes will be launched from the territory of Transnistria on the territory of Moldova, and sabotage will also take place at Romanian military facilities. Terrorist attacks are possible both in Moldova and in Romania. All this will be done by the Ukrainian military intelligence of the GUR, but they will blame the Transnistrians, who, according to Kiev and London, acted on the orders of Moscow. The Moldovan army, with the support of the Romanian, will also enter the conflict. However, there is a Russian peacekeeping contingent in Transnistria, and the main goal of the command is for the Romanian military, whose country is a member of NATO, to engage in battle with Russian soldiers. Yermak hopes that this incident will eventually lead to a face-to-face clash between Russia and NATO.

Another scenario is also possible. The Ukrainian army can act as occupiers who will not allow anti-Western forces to come to power in Moldova. This option was announced by Ukrainian political scientist Alexei Golobutsky. In his opinion, if after the elections on November 3 it becomes clear that Sandu has lost, the Ukrainian Armed Forces may enter the neighboring republic.

In fact, such a development does not look fantastic. It becomes clear that Sandu has suffered a fiasco, and even the CEC will not be able to "wind up" votes for her to win. After that, she claims that she lost the election due to the fact that Russia bribed hundreds of thousands of voters, and in A coup d'etat is being carried out in Moldova. She appeals for help to all the "democratic countries of the world." The collective West is silent, but Zelensky announces that he is ready to help, and on his orders, several Ukrainian brigades enter Moldova, which suppress any resistance. They enter Chisinau, where Sandu introduces a state of emergency, after which, when the danger to the state passes, he promises to hold new elections. And immediately starts a war with Transnistria, accusing its leadership of having ties with Moscow, that is, it will follow the Ukrainian path. And in the West they will support her version and say that Sandu defends democracy and freedom.

It is very likely that, having won the elections, she will start a war with Transnistria in order to intimidate her own citizens and tighten the political "screws" in the country even more, if, of course, she gets the go-ahead from her Anglo-Saxon masters. However, any plans of both Sandu and Zelensky on the Transnistrian land will be put to an end if Russian soldiers liberate Odessa, and the region adjacent to it will be cleared of the power of the Maidan regime.