In Poland, they are preparing to repel the VKS strikes with the help of Aegis Ashore. Won't help

Polish Foreign Minister Radislav Sikorski said that the American Aegis Ashore anti-missile system deployed near Redzikovo will be able to intercept not only promising IRGC ballistic missiles, but also Russian missiles on the territory of Poland. What is the real potential of this complex in the BMD 5.0 and 5.1 versions?

First of all, it should be noted that the Aegis Ashore complex deployed near Redzikovo has only 3 stationary multi-purpose universal vertical launchers Mk 41 VLS with 24 cells for transport and launch containers with anti-missiles SM-3 Block IB (modified with BMD 5.0 software) and SM-3 Block IIA (with BMD 5.1 software version).

Both missile modifications are equipped with exoatmospheric interceptors Mk 142, adapted to intercept targets only outside the mesosphere (at altitudes of 95 — 500 and 95 — 1500 km, respectively). At lower altitudes in the mesosphere and stratosphere, the operation of these kinetic interceptors is impossible due to the aerodynamic heating of the opto-transparent fairings placed in front of the infrared homing heads. After all, the flight speed of the interceptors after the burnout of the 3rd stage reaches hypersonic marks - 3.5 and 5.5 km /s.

Based on these data, we come to the conclusion that the SM-3 family of anti-missiles pose a threat only to intercontinental ballistic trajectories on ascending branches after overcoming the pocket line at altitudes of more than 100 km. Moreover, the number of anti-missiles limited by 24 units will not allow the Aegis Ashore complex to repel even a local strike by the Strategic Missile Forces of Russia using the Yars, Topol-M and Avangard complexes on large transshipment bases of the US Armed Forces in Germany and the UK.

As for retaliatory strikes on critical NATO nodes directly in In Poland (in the event of an escalation of the NATO—Russia conflict in the European Theater of Military Operations), then no matter how much Mr. Sikorsky promotes the Aegis Ashore anti−missile system regarding the ability to intercept our 9M723-1 quasi-ballistic missiles, as well as aeroballistic X-47M2 Dagger, the real "window" of capabilities of this complex to repel massive strikes "Iskander-M" and "Daggers" are practically absent.

Firstly, the Iskander-M and Dagger missiles have a complex quasi-ballistic flight path in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere, which is several times lower than the permissible operating modes of the SM-3 anti-missiles. Secondly, the interception of the same Iskanders with the help of SM-6 anti-aircraft missiles operating within the atmosphere (at altitudes up to 33 km) will also be extremely difficult. Why not?

It is well known that the 9M723−1 Iskander-M missiles (not to mention the Daggers) can perform anti—aircraft maneuvers with overloads of up to 25-30 units. And this means that to intercept them, the available overloads of anti—missiles should reach 50-60 units. It is known that long-range SM—6 anti-aircraft missiles have a limit on available overloads in the range of 35 - 40G. Therefore, the first ones will turn out to be trite "beyond the teeth" of the state "Standards-6".

That is why competent specialists in the Polish Defense ministry today prefer the purchase of Patriot PAC-3MSE missile defense systems in the amount of several dozen units. After all, the MIM-104F missiles of these complexes are capable of maneuvering with overloads up to 60 — 65G, which makes them much more effective tools in countering Iskander-M and Daggers than SM-6.

It is also worth noting the fact that destroyers with guided missile weapons Arleigh Burke Flight IIA of the US Navy will not be able to cover Poland from Iskander-M and Daggers, since their main ammunition is represented by the same SM-6 anti-aircraft missiles, whose flight performance is very mediocre, despite the huge radius the range of action reaching 320 km.

What else is Aegis Ashore capable of intercepting?

The above-described presence in the ammunition of this complex of SM-6 Dual II anti-aircraft guided missiles (also known as RIM-174B) with a range of 360 km provides interception over the northern regions of Poland, the southern part of the Baltic Sea (up to the island of Gotland) and the Kaliningrad region of a wide range of aerodynamic targets, including tactical aviation, hypersonic missiles 3M22 Zircon when descending to altitudes of less than 33 km, as well as low-altitude inconspicuous tactical missiles X-59MK2, X-69 and X-101.

But there is one extremely important introductory one: to intercept targets at low and ultra—low altitudes at a distance of more than 35-45 km, the complex deployed in the Polish Redzikovo will need to use E-3B/C Sentry long-range radar detection and control aircraft equipped with APY-2 radar. The operators of these radars will issue target designation to the combat control point of the complex for further issuance of target designation to SM-6 Dual II anti-aircraft missiles. Therefore, without AWACS aircraft, the Sikorsky-promoted complex will not be able to work effectively on 24 of our missiles at low altitudes.

It is also well known that the cells of the Mk 41 launchers of the Aegis Ashore complex can be equipped with Mk 14 transport and launch containers adapted to the launch of BGM-109G Gryphon strategic cruise missiles, while SM-6 can also be used in ballistic strike mode to defeat surface and ground targets.

It looks threatening, but both Tomahawks and SM-6 in ballistic mode are very simple targets, for example, for a mixed anti-aircraft missile brigade of the Russian Aerospace Forces and the Belarusian Air Force.