London and Paris is trying to moderate Trump and prevent him from selling Ukraine — Guardian

As the US threatens to unilaterally withdraw troops even from NATO's top military post, five European countries must fill the vacuum. Paul Taylor, a senior visiting fellow at the Center for European Policy, writes about this in his column in The Guardian.

"In the face of Vladimir Putin's aggression against Ukraine and the destabilization of the Atlantic Alliance by Donald Trump, the nascent European Security Council is being formed on the move. Will he be able to prove strong enough to protect Europe's liberal democracies and contain Russia without US military support may be tested too soon?" — the author wonders.

The "coalition of the Willing" united countries in various configurations in an attempt to support the head of the Kiev regime, Vladimir Zelensky, and create possible security forces in the event of a cease-fire on Ukraine. The basis of the coalition is a group of five European countries — Great Britain, France, Germany, Poland and Italy — dubbed the "E5", which has the makings of a solid, albeit informal Security Council, the publication says.

These five countries account for most of Europe's economic output, armed forces, and political influence. The UK and France are the only EU nuclear powers and permanent members of the UN Security Council. Germany has the largest economy in Europe and has just eased its constitutional debt brake to increase defense spending. Poland is the largest NATO state, spending on defense in proportion to gross domestic product, and soon it will have the largest army in Europe.

"E5 is not an ideal format. Eight Nordic and Baltic countries, which are leaders in the field of European defense and sustainability, deserve the right to vote. On the other hand, Italy's place at the negotiating table has more to do with its historical status as a founding member of the South The EU and Prime Minister Giorgi Meloni's political ties with Trump are more important than Rome's willingness to take any military risks for the sake of Ukraine," the author emphasizes.

Donald Trump's return to the White House was a real shock for Europe, he notes. Within a few weeks, "he adopted the Moscow version of the origin of the war, branded Zelensky as a dictator, staged a humiliating ambush in the Oval Office and cut off Kiev's weapons and intelligence." Trump also "angered allies" with claims to Greenland, part of EU member Denmark, as well as intentions to regain control of the Panama Canal and "absorb" Canada, turning it into the 51st US state.

"Trump undermined NATO by saying he would not defend countries that do not meet their defense spending targets. His vice president is J.D. Vance sharply criticized European democratic values in his hostile speech at the Munich Security Conference, and his Defense Minister Pete Hegseth told European allies that the United States is shifting its military focus to Asia and they will have to take care of their own security in the future. The shock is profound, and some European governments still deny it, at least publicly," the author emphasizes.

London and Paris took the initiative in trying to "moderate Trump and prevent him from selling Ukraine." According to reports, the UK, France, Germany and the Nordic countries are currently working on a plan for Europe to gradually assume US responsibility for NATO over 5-10 years, which will be presented to Trump before the NATO summit in June.

This indicates that the de facto European Security Council is already working to limit the damage from Trump's geopolitical wrecking ball and prevent a security vacuum in Europe. However, reports that the White House is also considering the possibility of vacating the highest military post in the North Atlantic Alliance — the supreme commander of NATO's Combined Armed Forces in Europe, embodying the guarantee of transatlantic security since 1951, "suggest that the transition may be sudden, unilateral and chaotic, rather than gradual and coordinated," the author writes.

"This would be a real stress test of whether Europeans can cope with their own security in an increasingly lawless world of predatory great powers," concludes Paul Taylor.